In one of the first big fantasy dominoes to fall ahead of the 2022 NFL trade deadline, the Detroit Lions traded tight end T.J. Hockenson, a 2023 fourth-round pick and a conditional 2024 fourth-round pick to their NFC North division rival Minnesota Vikings for a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick.
Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. suffered a high ankle sprain on Sunday versus the Cardinals and is expected to miss multiple weeks—not that he was having a very great fantasy season anyway. Now Hockenson joins a 6-1 Vikings team that looks like they could run away with the division as the Green Bay Packers continue to struggle.
Hockenson is a talented pass-catcher that has seen 39 targets this season with Detroit (tied for 7th-most at the position) while running a route 52.6% of the time and blocking 12.8%. Hockenson led all Detroit pass-catchers with 395 yards and was second in targets only to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Now, he’s another weapon for Kirk Cousins, but he will fall in line behind Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and possibly even KJ Osborn, limiting his ceiling for fantasy football. For comparison, Irv Smith Jr. saw only 29 targets in the same amount of games, though he did run more routes (63.7%) which could be a positive for Hockenson if he develops chemistry with Kirk Cousins. Hockenson saw seven red zone targets this year with the Lions, while Smith Jr. has seen five with the Vikings.
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The game script could also limit Hockenson, as the Lions often played from behind, and the Vikings should be more in control as they’ve emerged as a top team in the NFC. The Vikings have Dalvin Cook, who can run out the clock, so it’s unlikely Hockenson can maintain his 9.09 yards per target. Smith was averaging only 5.05 yards per target and three catches per game this season.
Of course, you cannot compare Hockenson and Smith directly. A player like Hockenson can put up some big numbers in this winning offense. That’s exactly why they traded for him, but with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen already established in this offense, it’s more likely this is an upgrade for the Vikings but a downgrade for your fantasy squad.
