The Buccaneers have their new starting quarterback, signing Baker Mayfield to a one-year, $8.5 million contract. It’s a prove-it deal for the former No. 1 overall pick, who will have now played for four teams in the last three years.
Mayfield had a solid rookie season, posting a rookie record 27 touchdown passes and averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, it’s been all downhill since then. In fact, he’s failed to average more than 15.5 points in each of his last three seasons, including the past two where he’s averaged fewer than 13 points.
On a positive note, Mayfield will be joining a Buccaneers offense with good veteran talent. Mike Evans has never had fewer than 1,000 yards in a single season, and Chris Godwin is one of the best slot men in the NFL. Losing Tom Brady, however, will no doubt cause them to lose some of that luster in fantasy football drafts.
After all, that’s a clear downgrade at quarterback.
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If you’re looking for a silver lining, Mayfield did lead a Browns offense with two top-25 fantasy wideouts (Jarvis Landry – WR12, Odell Beckham Jr. – WR25) back in 2019. The problem is that he’s been on the struggle bus ever since. In fact, Mayfield had the same number of turnovers as touchdown passes last season.
Overall, Mayfield is in a good position to regain some fantasy value. He’ll be the projected starter ahead of Kyle Trask, and he’s got some weapons (and maybe more coming in free agency and the draft). I still wouldn’t draft him until the late rounds though, and he won’t be more than a borderline QB3 in most leagues.
As for Evans and Godwin, they’ll both take a hit in value without Brady. But it’s not a total death blow to their values. I see them both on the WR2 level, though not on the high end of that spectrum. If Mayfield implodes, it could be a long year for both.
