As fantasy football enthusiasts gear up for the 2024 season, it's essential to hone your skills by utilizing tools like the Mock Draft Lobby and staying updated on Mike Clay's projections. When it comes to predicting touchdown regression, historical data consistently demonstrates that players tend to score fewer touchdowns in subsequent seasons.
Looking back at the years from 2016 to 2023, a remarkable 91.2% of players who scored touchdowns saw a decrease in their touchdown production the following season. This trend underscores the difficulty in maintaining high scoring rates over multiple seasons.
An analysis of touchdown data from 2011 to 2022 further reveals that a significant majority of players who scored 10 or more touchdowns experienced a decline in scoring the next season. The average decrease was 5.1 touchdowns, emphasizing the challenge of sustaining high touchdown numbers.
Expected touchdowns (xTD) provide additional insight into scoring opportunities for players, helping to anticipate potential changes in touchdown production. By examining usage patterns and historical data, projections for the 2024 season suggest a decline in scoring for several key players.
Players like Raheem Mostert, Christian McCaffrey, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Kyren Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Sam LaPorta, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Jakobi Meyers, and Gus Edwards are all projected to see a decrease in touchdown production based on their 2023 performances.
Factors such as historical efficiency, age, workload, and team dynamics contribute to these projections. While some players have been consistent touchdown producers in the past, statistical trends indicate a regression to the mean in the upcoming season.
As fantasy football managers prepare for the 2024 season, understanding the concept of touchdown regression and utilizing data-driven projections can help in making informed decisions during drafts and throughout the season.
