Welcome to NFL Week 16, which typically marks the second round of the playoffs for fantasy football. If you’re still in the hunt for a championship, you’ve come to the right place for lineup advice.
We have a pair of Saturday games, so be sure to set your lineups in advance to avoid any last-minute holiday snafus getting in the way of moving on to the title game.
Doing start/sit articles can be a little challenging. The players featured on the list below should not be taken as “must starts” or “must sits.” Instead, these are more suggestions on what we believe managers should do with fringe players heading into the weekend. The choice is ultimately up to the manager.
Just because a player is listed as a “start” doesn’t mean he should be put in the lineup over the secure, bona fide studs. Vice versa for the “sits.” If there’s no better option on the waiver wire or the bench, a manager shouldn’t automatically sit the player. That’s why these can be tricky waters to navigate.
Feel free to ask any specific start/sit questions via X, formerly Twitter, (@danieledobish), or check out our start/bench list for Week 16:
Quarterbacks
Start ‘Em
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: The Sunday Night Football game should feature plenty of aerial fireworks on both sides. Mayfield will be facing a Dallas pass defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Mayfield has seven touchdown passes across the past two games, and he has 288 or more passing yards in three of his past four outings.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: It’s a bit of a leap of faith to play Murray in the fantasy football playoffs. He does have 259 or more passing yards in four of the past five games, which is nice, and has four rushing scores this season. He is likely to do most of his damage with his feet as the Carolina Panthers‘ rush defense has been awful. Carolina’s pass defense has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, too. Look for Murray to perhaps have his best game of the season.
Sit ‘Em
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Goff was 21 of 34 passes for 221 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions on Thanksgiving in the first meeting with the Bears on Thanksgiving. Going outdoors in freezing conditions with winds sustained at 10-12 mph, it will be rather challenging. And, Chicago’s defense gives up the fewest amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, so it could be an ugly fantasy performance for Goff and the rest of the Lions’ passing game.
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: Darnold and the Vikings will have a difficult game in more ways than one. While the Seahawks’ pass defense is rather middle of the road, ranking 12th with 213.6 passing yards per game, it’s the weather that really makes this a bad matchup. The forecast is calling for 50°F at kickoff with a 95% chance of rain, heavy at times. The soggy conditions could mean more of a ground-based offensive attack.
Running Backs
Start ‘Em
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: Not only will Murray have a big game, but Conner is going to lead fantasy teams to the next round in the playoffs. The Carolina rushing defense allows more fantasy points to opposing running backs than any other team. In fact, the Panthers have allowed 1,981 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns to opposing running backs, and they’ve allowed 420 receiving yards and two scores to RBs, too.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans: The Colts are home in the warm, dry conditions at Lucas Oil Stadium. Taylor should be front and center for the Indy offense against a middle of the road rushing defense for the Titans. Let’s just hope if Taylor breaks free for a long run this week that he holds onto the ball all the way across the goal line. Bettors and fantasy players alike were saying a lot of bad words about Taylor last week in Denver because of his unforced error. It may seem like a no-brainer to start him based on his name value alone, but Taylor has produced more than nine PPR points in only 50% of his last six outings, and the high-water mark in that stretch was just 17.3.
Sit ‘Em
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: Ford should have the backfield mostly to himself in Week 16, but he is unlikely to have a very good game. First off, the Browns are starting QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, so Cincinnati is likely to stack the box, daring him to pass. That’s bad news for Ford, who should find very few open spaces. And, the Bengals allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, so the sledding should be very tough at Paycor Stadium for Ford.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Robinson wasn’t terrible in the first meeting with the Eagles, going for 63 yards and a touchdown on Thursday Night Football on Nov. 14. However, he has 3.9 yards per carry or fewer in three of his past four games, and he has scored just one touchdown in the past three games. The Eagles give up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Robinson should be in your starting lineup, but drop him down to low-end RB2 or flex status.
Wide Receivers
Start ‘Em
DeAndre Hopkins, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans: Hopkins has managed four or more receptions in four straight games, and he has found the end zone twice in the span. While he has 36 or fewer receiving yards in four of his past five outings, he could really stand out for fantasy managers, particularly in PPR leagues. Houston allows the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. There is some concern since QB Patrick Mahomes will not be 100% due to the ankle injury he suffered in Cleveland last week. If QB Carson Wentz winds up under center at any point, all bets are off.
Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: The third-round pick of the Bucs is finally starting to bear fruit. He has managed nine of his 22 receptions in the past two games and rolled up 134 of his 279 receiving yards during the span, too. McMillan is gaining the confidence of QB Baker Mayfield, who has found the rookie for three touchdown strikes in the two-game span, too. He can be trusted as a WR3 or flex fantasy option in leagues of 12 or more teams.
Sit ‘Em
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles: McLaurin has been absolutely on fire in the past three games, going for 73 or more receiving yards in each outing. He has scored five touchdowns in the three-game scoring streak, too, including two scores in each of the past two outings. However, Scary Terry was limited to just one grab for 10 yards on two targets in the first meeting against the Eagles in Week 11. While you may not actually sit him, expectations should be low vs. the top defender of his position.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins: The 49ers’ passing offense might struggle tremendously in South Florida on Sunday. First off, the Dolphins allow the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Second, Deebo just cannot be trusted at this critical juncture of the season as he has 22 or fewer receiving yards in five consecutive games, and he hasn’t visited the end zone since Oct. 10.
Tight Ends
Start ‘Em
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: It’s unusual to have three players from the same team in the “start” section. However, this is the week McBride finally secures that elusive first receiving touchdown. Oddly enough, McBride has managed a rushing score this season. McBride has easily been a TE1 in all fantasy leagues this season, regardless of matchup, but this week he faces a Carolina defense allowing the most second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. While recommending him is akin to acknowledging “liquid water is wet,” we wanted to emphasize the matchup especially for those is non-PPR leagues.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: The 25-year-old tight end had quite the rapport with QB Mason Rudolph last week, and Chig amassed eight receptions for 59 yards on 10 targets. The catch and target totals were each career highs. Okonkwo isn’t worth using in leagues of 10 or fewer teams, as if you have made it to this point, you likely have a very good option at that position. But, if you’re looking for help at the spot, Okonkwo could be a sneaky-good play against an Indy passing defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Sit ‘Em
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions: Kmet should be avoided in all fantasy leagues against a unit allowing the fewest amount of fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Detroit’s defense has allowed just two touchdowns to the position this season. He nabbed just three grabs for 26 yards on three targets on Thanksgiving in the first meeting in Detroit, and he had a 14-yard catch on one target in the past two games. Stay far, far away.
Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers: It’s amazing how Smith, 29 years old, has been a late bloomer. He has posted a career-high 70 receptions, 89 targets and 740 yards through 14 games this season. Smith also has six receiving scores, although those stats aren’t likely to increase dramatically against the 49ers. San Francisco allows the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Treat Smith as more of a TE2 this week for the difficult matchup.
