Rookies, across all positions, have seen their value rise in the world of fantasy football. Fantasy managers, including myself, get excited about the thought of “new blood” and their potential in the stat sheets. We talk about their talent and opportunity, which can combine to make a first-year player quite attractive in our fantasy leagues.
However, sometimes we overlook a player’s potential “fit” with his new team. For example, if a wide receiver played on the perimeter in college, and his new NFL team already has two established “wideouts,” he could struggle to see enough volume to make a Year 1 impact. On the flip side, a wideout who can run routes out wide and inside might have more of an advantage, as his versatility could get him more opportunities in the passing game.
With that in mind, I researched 20 prominent rookie wide receivers and looked at the type of routes they ran in college, compared to what their new NFL team will need. I included both the final number of routes run out wide and in the slot, and the percentages. This data could be useful in knowing who might make an instant impact based on the combination of skill, potential volume and fit, and whose path to targets could be blocked by veterans.
Note: The compiled data is only when the player lined up for a pass snap.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Wide snaps: 292 (79.8%)
Slot snaps: 71 (19.4%)
Harrison Jr. is a lock to be the alpha wide receiver in Arizona right out of the gate. He’ll take over for Marquise Brown, who ran 79.8% of his routes on the perimeter last season. The talented rookie out of Ohio State is already a second-round pick in most preseason mocks and redrafts.
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
Wide: 195 (46.2%)
Slot: 226 (53.6%)
Nabers can run routes from both the inside and outside, as we see in his 2023 percentages at LSU. In New York, I see him as mostly a perimeter, alpha type receiver, with Wan’Dale Robinson getting most of the work out of the slot. Darus Slayton and Jalin Hyatt will battle for the other spot out wide.
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
Wide: 374 (81.1%)
Slot: 82 (17.8%)
Odunze was used mostly on the perimeter in college, and that’s where he’ll remain at the next level. In that scenario, he would start out wide with DJ Moore, while newly added Keenan Allen will run out of the slot. Allen lined up inside 59% of the time last season. The problem with Oduze’s Year 1 value is his limited ceiling with two productive veterans ahead of him on the depth chart.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Wide: 363 (85.8%)
Slot: 59 (13.9%)
Thomas Jr. should come right in and take a starting perimeter spot for the Jaguars, replacing Calvin Ridley. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he’ll have to battle fellow perimeter wideout Gabe Davis, slot man Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram for targets in the passing game.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
Wide: 247 (62.1%)
Slot: 150 (37.7%)
Worthy is an explosive field stretcher who was used more often on the perimeter in his final collegiate season. He can play on the inside too, however, so the Chiefs can use him all over the field to create some mismatches. If Rashee Rice gets suspended, Worthy could see plenty of targets.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
Wide: 89 (75.4%)
Slot: 29 (24.6%)
McConkey isn’t a big wide receiver at 6’0” and 185 pounds, but that didn’t keep him from running most of his college routes out wide. Still, the departure of Keenan Allen opens up 331 routes out of the slot, and Quentin Johnston ran 90% of his rookie routes on the perimeter. Joshua Palmer can be used out of the slot too, but don’t be surprised if McConkey’s percentage of slot routes rises compared to his final year at Georgia. He’s a fantasy sleeper, regardless.
Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills
Wide: 264 (70.4%)
Slot: 106 (28.3%)
The Bills traded Stefon Diggs and let Gabe Davis leave as a free agent, leaving more than 900 pass plays started out on the perimeter. Coleman was predominantly a wideout in college, so he’ll fit right into the “Diggs role.” He’s a definite fantasy sleeper based on his potential to see plenty of volume as a rookie. Newcomer Curtis Samuel, who ran just 26.5% of his routes out wide with the Commanders a year ago, could move to the perimeter while Khalil Shakir mans the slot. He led Buffalo’s pass attack with 317 slot snaps played (76.8%) last season.
Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers
Wide: 194 (42.2%)
Slot: 260 (56.5%)
Pearsall is considered a deep sleeper in fantasy leagues, but I don’t see a clear path to targets for him as a rookie. Brandin Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel will run most of their routes from the perimeter (though the latter did line up in the slot 33.5% of the time), and Jauan Jennings is the projected favorite to be the main slot receiver. There’s a chance that Pearsall could push Jennings in training camp, otherwise he’ll be hard pressed to see enough work to make an impact.
Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers
Wide: 268 (64.6%)
Slot: 141 (34.0%)
Legette played both on the inside and outside in his final year at South Carolina, but he projects as more of a perimeter receiver in Carolina. He’ll play opposite Diontae Johnson, who’ll serve as the Panthers top receiver on the outside, and be worth a late-round look in drafts. Adam Thielen, who ran 69.1% of his routes out of the slot a year ago, should continue to be utilized in that role.
Adonai Mitchell, Indianapolis Colts
Wide: 328 (80.2%)
Slot: 81 (19.8%)
Mitchell was predominantly a perimeter receiver in college, running over 80% of his routes out wide in 2023. Michael Pittman Jr. is locked into a starting role on one side of the field, so Mitchell will have to beat out Alec Pierce for the other prominent role on the perimeter. That’s the battle to watch in the Colts pass attack, as Josh Downs is locked into the role of the main slot receiver.
Ja'Lynn Polk, New England Patriots
Wide: 243 (58.3%)
Slot: 173 (41.5%)
Polk is a versatile receiver who can play on the inside and the outside. With Demario Douglas slated to be the team’s slot receiver, however, Polk is more likely to start out on the perimeter opposite Kendrick Bourne. If you’re the type of fantasy manager who likes young receivers with upside, then Polk is the perfect player to target at some point in the late rounds of redrafts.
Roman Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Wide: 77 (34.5%)
Slot: 146 (65.5%)
The Steelers offense will have a whole new look this season, including a wide receiver group that no longer fields Diontae Johnson or Allen Robinson. Instead, George Pickens will be the main perimeter receiver with Van Jefferson the favorite to start opposite him. That leaves Wilson with a change to earn the top slot man role that Robinson left behind. The Steelers don’t figure to throw a ton, but Wilson is a player for fantasy fans to watch during training camp.
Jermaine Burton, Cincinnati Bengals
Wide: 199 (80.9%)
Slot: 47 (19.1%)
Burton ran most of his collegiate routes on the outside, so landing in Cincinnati will make it tough for him to make an immediate impact. After all, the perimeter is already manned by Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. With little experience in the slot, Burton is likely to be a backup in Year 1.
Malachi Corley, New York Jets
Wide: 51 (34.7%)
Slot: 314 (85.8%)
Corley was considered a nice bargain in the NFL draft, but I’m not sure I see a path to consistent targets in his first NFL season. The Jets have Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams on the perimeter, and Xavier Gipson figures to remain their top slot man. With that said, Corley could overtake Gipson with a strong preseason and training camp. The Jets also have 118 available slot routes with Randall Cobb out of the mix, so Corley is a player to monitor this summer.
Javon Baker, New England Patriots
Wide: 247 (72.9%)
Slot: 92 (27.1%)
There are plenty of folks out there who will tell you that Baker was a steal in the NFL draft. And while that might be the case long term, it doesn’t mean he’ll see enough targets to make an impact in Year 1. The Patriots have Polk and Bourne as the favorites to start on the perimeter, so Baker will have to compete with both Tyquan Thornton and Jalen Reagor for playing time.
Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos
Wide: 330 (82.5%)
Slot: 67 (16.8%)
Franklin was a prominent perimeter receiver in college, posting 1,349 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. Still, I’m not sure there’s a role for him in Denver as a rookie. Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds will start out wide, while second-year wideout Marvin Mims, Jr. will man in the slot. As a result, I’d value Franklin more in long-term dynasty leagues than traditional redrafts.
Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wide: 6 (3.8%)
Slot: 133 (83.1%)
McMillan barely played anywhere but on the outside in his final collegiate season, and those roles are currently filled by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Both veterans ran 60-plus percent of their routes out wide a season ago, but each can also line up on the inside. The Bucs could also use Trey Palmer on the outside, moving Godwin inside and pushing McMillan into a backup role as a rookie. He’ll have little value in redrafts, but McMillan will be worth a dynasty look.
Devontez Walker, Baltimore Ravens
Wide: 309 (92.5%)
Slot: 23 (6.9%)
The Ravens have two wide receivers who ran at least 87% of their routes on the perimeter last season in Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman. That’s going to make it tough for Walker, who played out wide in college, to make a Year 1 impact. He won’t have his name called in most redrafts.
Luke McCaffrey, Washington Commanders
Wide: 133 (28.7%)
Slot: 327 (70.6%)
McCaffrey, the son of Ed and brother of Christian, landed in a good spot in Washington. The team lost Curtis Samuel, their top slot receiver from a season ago, to the Bills in free agency. That will allow McCaffrey, who ran most of his college routes inside, to lead the Commanders in slot routes this season. He’s still not going to be more than a late flier in most redrafts, but the youngest McCaffrey could pop a few times during the course of his rookie season.
Malik Washington, Miami Dolphins
Wide: 31 (6.7%)
Slot: 406 (87.9%)
Washington, an inside receiver coming out of Virginia, will have no real chance to make an impact in Year 1. The Dolphins have a talented duo in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the former of which ran 37.4% of his routes out of the slot last season. Braxton Berrios (aka Alix Earle’s boyfriend) is also returning after leading the team in inside routes run in 2023.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Rookies: Getting to Know the Wide Receivers.
