Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point: in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs needed a starting running back and drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd overall pick (Round 1). He went ahead of Jonathan Taylor, who was picked by the Indianapolis Colts with the 41st overall pick (Round 2).
In his four years, Edwards-Helaire has failed to rush for more than 803 yards in a single season. He’s failed to hit the 1,000-yard mark in terms of scrimmage yards in each of the last three seasons. On the flip side, Taylor has rushed for over 1,000 yards twice. That includes a 2021 season when the talented back won the rushing title (1,811 yards).
Obviously, the Chiefs chose poorly.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like a bum.
With that said, it’s time to bring back our “Making the Call” series here at Sports Illustrated. In the series, Jen Piacenti and I will be looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and tell you who you should pick.
Since we’re talking running backs, let’s compare Zamir White and Zack Moss. According to FantasyData's ADP, they’re coming off the board within 20 picks of one another, somewhere in the sixth to eighth rounds. White is going at 70.7 overall over the last two weeks, while Moss is being picked on average, at 90.5 overall.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In 2023, the Raiders ranked 10th in run percentage and ran the football 457 times. That was the 11th-most in the league. White didn’t do much in the first 14 weeks, until Josh Jacobs went down with an injury. At that point, he took over the lead role, averaging 21 carries and 15.2 points per game over the final four weeks. Las Vegas had a good but not great run-blocking offensive line for the season, ranking 12th in the league based on Pro Football Focus grades.
Moss will be the new lead runner in a Bengals offense that ranked 21st in run percentage and tied for 17th in carries last season. He played second fiddle to Jonathan Taylor for a lot of the year, but he did see 18 or more carries in six games. In those games, Moss averaged 18.4 carries, 92.0 rushing yards and 21.2 fantasy points. He did benefit from a strong Colts offensive line that ranked seventh on PFF, but those are impressive totals nonetheless. The Bengals offensive line, on the other hand, was 23rd in run blocking based on those grades.
Winner: Push
Rushing Skills
In his four starts at the end of last season, White averaged 4.7 yards per run. He was fourth in yards after contact, tied for seventh in broken tackles and tied for fifth in explosive runs. Those are attractive totals among all running backs. White wasn’t ranked as highly in terms of red zone looks (15th), but he did see all but four of the touches for Vegas.
Moss averaged 4.3 yards per attempt last season, but let’s narrow that down to the six games in which he saw at least 18 carries. In Weeks 2-5, he averaged 5.0 yards per carry and was first in yards after contact. While he only broke three tackles, Moss did lead all runners in explosive plays in those four weeks. He was also third in red zone looks. In the other 18-plus carry games, Moss averaged over five yards per carry.
Winner: Moss
Receiving Skills
White ranked tied for 15th in targets and tied for 22nd in catches in his four starts. In all, just 25% of his fantasy points scored during that time resulted from being a pass catcher. If we project those totals over 17 games, White would have had 38 catches for 255 yards.
Moss has a bigger resume than White, but he’s rarely been a featured back. When he did get that chance last season (six games), Moss was targeted 14 times. He had 11 catches for 92 yards, and 20% of his points came as a receiver. Projected over a full 17 contests, Moss would have finished with 32 catches and 260 yards as a pass catcher.
Winner: Push
Durability
White hasn’t played a lot in the NFL, carrying the ball just 121 times in his first two years, so he doesn’t have much of an injury history. Besides a 2022 ankle sprain, he’s been mostly healthy. Moss has played five years as a pro, carrying the football 484 times. He suffered a broken forearm in the 2023 preseason, but he missed just one regular-season game as a result. He also endured an arm bruise that cost him two contests later in the year.
Winner: White
Strength of Schedule
Based on strenght of schedule data pulled from 2023 results, White and Moss are in the bottom half of the league for the upcoming slate. The slight edge, however, goes to Moss.
Winner: Moss
Vegas Odds
Neither runner is listed among the Offensive Player of the Year award candidates at DraftKings Sportsbook. White is at +2500 (T-11th) to win the rushing title, while Gibbs is at +4500 (20th). Coincidentally, White and Moss are both listed at +7000 to lead the league in rushing touchdowns. Moss has the edge in terms of total touchdowns at +8000, compared to White’s +10000.
Winner: Push
And the Pick Is …
These two running backs are close in value, but I’m going against ADP and picking Moss. He was tremendous in four of his six starts last season (small sample size, yes), but now he’s in a more explosive offense in Cincinnati. His predecessor, Joe Mixon, averaged 19.1 touches during his seven seasons in the Queen City, and he rushed for 1,000-plus yards five times, including each of the last three years. While I do like White as a potential breakout player too (remember, he has an even smaller sample size for success than Moss), I like Moss’ offensive situation and upside more than White’s heading into 2024.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Rankings: Zamir White vs. Zack Moss.
