Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point. In the 1999 NFL Draft, Edgerrin James and Ricky Williams were the two unquestioned top running backs in the class. The Colts had a tough decision to make with the fourth overall pick, and they chose James. He went on to win Rookie of the Year, became a four-time Pro Bowler and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2020.
The Colts chose wisely.
Imagine, on the other hand, if they had selected Williams? Don’t get me wrong, he had a good career. But was he worth the Saints trading their entire draft class? While he had four straight 1,000-yard seasons (2000-03), Williams retired in 2004, returned in 2005 and was suspended for the entire 2006 campaign.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like former Saints head coach Mike Ditka and general manager Bill Kuharich.
With that said, I’ve been working on a new series for SI Fantasy looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and telling you who you should pick.
- Head-to-Head Series: Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence | Justin Fields or Justin Herbert | Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry
I started with the quarterbacks, and now I’ll continue this exercise with the runners. Our next look pits two young backs, Rhamondre Stevenson and Travis Etienne. In the National Fantasy Football Championships, these two runners are coming off the board within five picks of one another, both in the third round of most drafts.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In New England, Bill O’Brien is the team’s new offensive coordinator. His offenses ranked in the top 10 in run percentage four times in his seven seasons as the head coach in Houston. During that time, he ran the ball at least 448 times five times. He also had a stud back in Arian Foster, who was a first-round lock in fantasy drafts. The Patriots added James Robinson in the offseason but recently released him due to injury concerns. Regardless, O’Brien has liked to use a featured back in the past and should put Stevenson in that sort of position.
In Jacksonville, Doug Pederson heads into his seventh season as a head coach, his second with the Jaguars. In his first six years, his offenses averaged 435.6 rush attempts, but he’s never had a top-10 finish in terms of pass percentage. What’s more, Etienne averaged just 13 carries and 15 touches per game last season. The Jaguars also added D’Ernest Johnson and Tank Bigsby to what could become somewhat of a crowded backfield.
Winner: Stevenson
Rushing Skills
Stevenson rushed for a career-best 1,040 yards and averaged nearly five yards per carry last season. That ranked sixth among running backs who started at least seven games. He was also tied for second with Dameon Pierce in broken tackles, finishing just two behind the league leader, Derrick Henry. Stevenson was also good after first contact, rushing for 439 yards. That ranked 13th among backs.
Etienne also had plenty of success as a runner. He posted 1,125 yards and a 5.1 yards per carry average last season, the latter of which ranked fourth-best among backs. He wasn’t as effective as Stevenson as a tackle-breaker, though, ranking tied for 19th. Etienne was also just 20th in terms of yards after first contact in 2022.
Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports
Winner: Push
Receiving Skills
Simply put, Stevenson was one of the best pass catching running backs in the NFL last season. In fact, only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey had more touches at the position last season. He finished fourth in catches, averaging 4.1 receptions per game, and finished seventh in receiving yards. Unsurprisingly, Mac Jones ranked tied for seventh among quarterbacks (minimum 10 games) in pass attempts to his running backs. That sort of trend should continue under O’Brien’s watch, too.
Etienne is also a good pass catcher, hauling in 35 passes from Trevor Lawrence on 45 targets for 316 yards. Unfortunately, he simply doesn’t see enough chances to be a high-end producer as a receiver. In fact, Lawrence ranked 23rd in pass attempts per game to running backs (minimum 10 games). With Calvin Ridley now joining the Jaguars offense, there’s even more mouths to feed in the team’s pass attack, too.
Winner: Stevenson
Durability
Stevenson has been mostly durable ever since he broke his foot back in high school (2015). He played 19 games during his two seasons at Oklahoma, missing just two contests due to a suspension. He did suffer an ankle sprain last season, but he still played in all 17 games for the Patriots and averaged over 16 touches per contest.
Etienne missed his entire rookie year for the Jaguars with an injured foot, but he did play all 17 games (12 starts) a season ago. Like Stevenson, he’s been mostly free of major injuries in college and two years in the pros outside of the Lisfranc ailment. But that injury will give Stevenson the nod in terms of their comparative durability.
Winner: Stevenson
Jeremy Reper/USA Today network
Strength of Schedule
Stevenson has a lot going for him heading into this season, but the schedule isn’t one of them. In fact, the Patriots have the eighth-toughest schedule based on 2022 fantasy points allowed data. Etienne’s slate isn’t great but is slightly better, ranking 17th. This data can oftentimes be deceiving since teams aren’t always as effective (or ineffective) against backs on a year-to-year basis, but Etienne is the winner here.
Winner: Etienne
And the Pick Is…
Stevenson and Etienne are both solid backs with low RB1 potential, but the former has the edge in 2023 drafts. He figures to remain a big part of the New England passing game, which is huge in our PPR fantasy world, and chances are he’ll be close to a true featured back even with Robinson on the roster. On the flip side, recent reports suggest the Jaguars want to lessen Etienne’s workload. After the team sent Robinson to the Jets last season, Etienne took 74% of the carries. With the additions of both Johnson and Bigsby, there’s a good chance Etienne could see a slight drop in that total. What’s more, Bigsby could eat into his goal-line chances. So, while Etienne plays in a better offense, Stevenson is the better fantasy choice.
