Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point. In the 1999 NFL Draft, Edgerrin James and Ricky Williams were the two unquestioned top running backs in the class. The Colts had a tough decision to make with the fourth overall pick, and they chose James. He went on to win Rookie of the Year, became a four-time Pro Bowler and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2020.
The Colts chose wisely.
Imagine, on the other hand, if they had selected Williams? Don’t get me wrong, he had a good career. But was he worth the Saints trading their entire draft class? While he had four straight 1,000-yard seasons (2000-03), Williams retired in 2004, returned in 2005 and was suspended for the entire 2006 campaign.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like former Saints head coach Mike Ditka and general manager Bill Kuharich.
With that said, I’ve been working on a new series for SI Fantasy looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and telling you who you should pick.
- Head-to-Head Series: Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence | Justin Fields or Justin Herbert
I started with the quarterbacks, and now I’ll continue this exercise with the runners. Our first look pits two stud backs, Nick Chubb against Derrick Henry. In the National Fantasy Football Championships, these two running backs are coming off the board within five picks of one another, both in the second round of most drafts.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In Cleveland, Kevin Stefanski heads into his third year as the Browns head coach. His offenses have finished with no fewer than 485 rush attempts and not lower than ninth in run percentage in that time. Chubb has averaged 18 touches in 43 games under his watch, rushing for over 1,200 yards twice. Last season, Chubb saw his highest touch per game average (19.4) under Stefanski. He also posted a career-best 281.4 PPR points, which was good enough to finish sixth among running backs.
The Titans have a new offensive coordinator in Tim Kelly, whose teams in Houston (2019-21) averaged 399 rush attempts. The Texans finished 16th or worse in run percentage during that time, but Kelly didn’t have a stud back like Henry. Tennessee also improved their offensive line, picking Peter Skoronski in the draft. On a negative note, the team has little talent in the passing game, which could mean stacked lines.
Winner: Chubb
Rushing Skills
Chubb has been a fantasy superstar over the last four years, rushing for a combined 5,345 yards. That’s second in the league behind only Henry’s 6,042. Chubb has also scored 40 touchdowns on the ground in that time, tying for the third most among all backs. The Georgia product has also averaged 5.3 yards per attempt, ranks No. 1 in broken tackles and is sixth in snaps played that resulted in a rushing attempt.
Henry has been even better than Chubb as a runner over the last four years. In that time, he’s first in rushing yards, first in rushing touchdowns and fourth in broken tackles. Henry has averaged 4.8 yards per rush attempt, too, and no runner in the league has been on the field more often when a play has resulted in a run.
Winner: Push
Receiving Skills
Chubb has never hauled in more than 36 passes in a single season, and that was the lone year he’s surpassed the 30-catch mark. He’s also averaged just 31 targets over the last two campaigns, finishing with a combined 47 catches. The Browns didn’t retain veteran Kareem Hunt in the offseason, but Chubb still won’t ever be confused for Christian McCaffrey when we look at his final receiving statistics.
Henry is very similar to Chubb in that his ceiling as a receiver is limited. His career high in catches is 33, which he achieved last season, and his personal best in terms of targets is 41 (also last year). The depth behind Henry includes Hassan Haskins and rookie Tyjae Spears, so he’s unlikely to see a major jump in his targets.
Winner: Push
Durability
Chubb has had a huge workload with the Browns, and he’s been able to remain a reliable, durable option for fantasy managers. He did miss four games in 2020 with an injured knee, but he’s played in 75 of possible 82 regular-season games. Chubb is also entering his age-27 season (he’ll turn 28 two days after Christmas).
Henry has been a true bell cow for the Titans, carrying the football a combined 1,249 times over his last 55 regular-season games. That’s more than any back in the NFL. He’s also played in at least 15 games in three of the last four seasons. The one year he missed time was in 2021, when he was sidelined for nine contests with a broken foot. Despite missing more than half that year, Henry still rushed for almost 1,000 yards. The concern, of course, is the massive workload and the fact that he’s “older” at 29 years old. Those two factors are the biggest risks Henry brings to the table.
Winner: Chubb
George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
Strength of Schedule
Both Chubb and Henry have favorable slates based on 2022 FPA data, but the latter gets to nod. He has the easiest schedule among all runners, and his fantasy playoff slate is a virtual cakewalk with two games against Houston and one versus Seattle. Henry has scored 18-plus points in five straight games against the Texans, including four games with at least 35 points. He has rushed for over 200 yards four times in those contests and has scored a combined 10 touchdowns. He also gets a Seahawks defense that allowed the fourth-most PPR points to runners in 2022.
Winner: Henry
And the Pick Is…
This is a difficult call between two backs who have so much in common in terms of their skill sets, past fantasy success and ease of schedule. But at the end of the day, I must side with the younger back with less wear and tear. That’s Chubb. He also won’t have Hunt to limit some of his touches (which actually didn’t happen last year). Henry is great and like Chubb will be a strong second-rounder in most leagues, but you have to wonder when the wheels are going to fall off from excessive work. And while injuries are tough to predict, I’m taking the player with a bit less risk.
