Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point: In the 1998 NFL draft, Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf were the two unquestioned top quarterbacks in the class. The Colts had a tough decision to make with the No. 1 pick, and they chose Manning. He went on to become a 14-time Pro Bowler, win two Super Bowls, multiple MVPs and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
The Colts chose wisely.
Imagine, on the other hand, if they had selected Leaf? He went on to play just three seasons, two with the team that drafted him, the Chargers. He had zero Pro Bowls, zero MVPs, zero Super Bowls and finished his career with a 4-17 record.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like former Chargers general manager Bobby Beathard after the 1998 draft.
With that said, I’m going to be working on a new series for SI Fantasy looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and tell you who you should pick.
Let’s start off this exercise with a look at Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence. In the National Fantasy Football Championships, these two quarterbacks are coming off the board within five picks of one another, both in the fourth round of drafts.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
The Ravens have a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken, whose offenses in Tampa Bay (2016-18) and Cleveland (2019) averaged 532.5 pass attempts. That’s 131.5 more pass attempts than Jackson’s career high (401)! In two of those seasons, his offenses ranked in the top six in passing percentage. The passing game has several new weapons, including Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers, in addition to incumbents Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman.
In Jacksonville, Doug Pederson heads into his seventh season as a head coach. In his first six years, his offenses averaged 596.5 pass attempts, but he’s had just two top-10 finishes in terms of pass percentage. The Jaguars get the nod for offensive talent with the addition of veteran wideout Calvin Ridley, who joins a passing game that already includes receivers like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram.
Winner: Lawrence
Passing Skills
Jackson isn’t a prolific passer, though he did post 3,127 yards, 36 touchdowns and just six interceptions in his MVP season of 2019. Historically though, Jackson has averaged just 174.4 passing yards per game and has just one season with more than 26 scoring strikes. What’s more, he’s averaged more than 185 passing yards per game once in the last three years. While that should certainly change under Monken, Jackson’s passing ceiling is still very likely under 4,000 yards.
Lawrence has played just two seasons in the NFL, and I’m going to look past his awful rookie season under former coach Urban Meyer. Last season, he threw for 4,113 yards with 25 touchdowns and just eight picks. An elite-type talent, I can see him pushing for 4,500-plus yards and 30-plus touchdowns this season. Lawrence also has more talent around him with Ridley’s return from a long suspension.
Winner: Lawrence
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Rushing Skills
This of course isn’t even close. Maybe the best running quarterback since Mike Vick, Jackson has rushed for 1,000-plus yards in two of his last four years. In the two years he failed to reach that mark, he was on pace to go over the century mark but missed time due to injuries. He’s also rushed for 24 touchdowns in his career.
Lawrence is a mobile quarterback, rushing for a combined 625 yards and seven touchdowns in his 34 career games. That’s a nice fantasy cherry on top of his passing production, but Jackson is simply the best rushing quarterback in the NFL.
Winner: Jackson
Durability
Jackson played in at least 15 games in each of his first two years as a full-time starter, but he’s been less durable lately. In fact, he’s missed a combined 10 games in the last two years. That’s one of the bigger risks with Jackson, who’s elite-level mobility and style of play also puts him in far more danger of suffering injuries.
Lawrence hasn’t missed a start in the NFL, so durability isn’t much of a concern for the third-year quarterback. He was also mostly durable during his time at Clemson.
Winner: Lawrence
Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports
Strength of Schedule
Jackson gets a slight edge here, as his schedule ranks 18th in difficulty compared to Lawrence, who’s slate is eighth toughest based on 2022 fantasy points allowed data. Still, the difference between the two is almost negligible and won’t make a huge difference in terms of which player is the better pick in fantasy drafts.
And the Pick Is…
While Lawrence gets the nod in three of our five categories, Jackson’s longer career resume of fantasy success and his rushing chops makes him the pick for me. But I will tell you this: I think Lawrence is the top breakout quarterback for the upcoming season. What’s more, this exercise proves that while Jackson looks like the obvious winner on the surface, Lawrence is closer than you might think in 2023 drafts.
