Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point. In the 1999 NFL Draft, Edgerrin James and Ricky Williams were the two unquestioned top running backs in the class. The Colts had a tough decision to make with the fourth overall pick, and they chose James. He went on to win Rookie of the Year, became a four-time Pro Bowler and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2020.
The Colts chose wisely.
Imagine, on the other hand, if they had selected Williams? Don’t get me wrong, he had a good career. But was he worth the Saints trading their entire draft class? While he had four straight 1,000-yard seasons (2000-03), Williams retired in 2004, returned in 2005 and was suspended for the entire 2006 campaign.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like former Saints head coach Mike Ditka and general manager Bill Kuharich.
With that said, I’ve been working on a new series for SI Fantasy looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and telling you who you should pick.
- Head-to-Head Series: Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence | Justin Fields or Justin Herbert | Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry | Rhamondre Stevenson or Travis Etienne
I started with the quarterbacks, and now I’ll continue this exercise with the runners. Our next look pits two young backs, Kenneth Walker III and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. In the National Fantasy Football Championships, these two runners are coming off the board within five picks of one another, both in the fourth round of most drafts.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In Seattle, Shane Waldron will be entering his third season as the team’s offensive coordinator. His offenses have ranked 22nd and 13th in run percentage in each of the last two years, averaging 419 rushing attempts. Walker finished his rookie year 18th in PPR points and 17th on a points-per-game basis among running backs. The previous season, Waldron’s best fantasy back was Rashaad Penny, who finished at RB42. Head coach Pete Carroll is notorious for wanting to run the football, however, which is a big reason why the team selected Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the draft.
The Lions offense will be run by coordinator Ben Johnson, who’s system produced a 44% run percentage (14th in the NFL) and 480 rushing attempts last season. Detroit was one of only two teams, along with the Cowboys, to produce two top-24 fantasy runners – Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. With both of those players gone, Gibbs, a rookie out of Alabama, figures to play the “Swift role” while new starter David Montgomery absorbs Williams’ role.
Winner: Push
Rushing Skills
Walker rushed for 1,050 yards and averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season. He did that in just 15 games (11 starts) and despite playing behind Penny at the start of the season. In the 11 games he started, Walker averaged 18.6 carries and a very solid 20.5 touches. He also averaged nearly 16 fantasy points per game in that time, a total that would have ranked him with the likes of Tony Pollard and James Conner. Walker was also tied for 15th in broken tackles and was 15th in yards after contact.
Gibbs, a rookie, rushed for 926 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 6.1 yards per rush attempt in his final collegiate season at Alabama. He broke the 100-yard mark three times, including a 206-yard, two-touchdown performance in a win over Arkansas, and averaged over five yards a carry in seven of his 12 contests. That was, of course, against collegiate amateurs, so Walker gets the nod here.
Winner: Walker
Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports
Receiving Skills
Walker is a good pass catcher, as he proved during his rookie season with a total of 21 receptions in his 11 starts. Those numbers also show that he’s in no way on the same elite level of guys like Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler in that department. His quarterback, Geno Smith, was also just 21st in terms of targeting running backs a season ago, so Walker isn’t likely to see a massive jump in his second year.
Gibbs, on the other hand, is a pass-catching machine who has been compared to Alvin Kamara. He hauled in 44 passes last season for the Crimson Tide, including catching at least four passes in five contests. It’s likely those skills that attracted the Lions to Gibbs as the No. 12 overall pick in the NFL draft, and it’ll be a big part of how he is used in the team’s backfield rotation with Montgomery as a rookie.
Winner: Gibbs
Durability
Walker hasn’t been forced to miss significant time in either college or the pros. He did undergo a minor procedure for a sports hernia last August and dealt with a bum ankle during the season, but neither ailment kept him out of significant action.
Gibbs was mostly durable during his time between Georgia Tech and Alabama. He did suffer a separated shoulder in 2020 that cost him two games, and he also hurt his ankle and missed a game for the Crimson Tide. However, there’s been no sort of indication that Gibbs is injury prone or at greater risk of missing any notable time.
Winner: Push
Gary Cosby Jr./USA TODAY Sports
Strength of Schedule
Gibbs and the Lions backfield have the fourth easiest schedule with games against the Bears (2), Packers (2), Seahawks and Chargers. Their postseason slate is also good and includes two favorable matchups against the Broncos and Vikings. Seattle, on the other hand, has the toughest slate for runners. They’ll face the Niners twice in the division, plus contests against the Commanders, Cowboys and Titans. In the fantasy playoffs, Walker will battle the Eagles, Titans and the Steelers.
Winner: Gibbs
And the Pick Is…
These two running backs are close in value as you can tell by their average draft position, but I’m going with Walker despite Gibbs winning two of our five categories compared to Walker’s one. The big reason is the presence of Montgomery, who figures to see a good portion of the early-down and goal-line opportunities in the Lions offense. In fact, Gibbs would probably have to catch 50-plus passes as a rookie to be a potential RB2 in fantasy action. It’s possible, but I see it as unlikely as long as Montgomery is healthy.
There is of course risk in Walker, too, as the Seahawks drafted Charbonnet in the second round. But as we learned from their selection of Penny in the first round in 2018, that doesn’t guarantee a committee. In fact, Penny played second fiddle to incumbent veteran Chris Carson as a rookie. Walker is also a proven commodity at the pro level, while Gibbs is likely the second option in a Lions committee.
