Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point. In the 2020 NFL draft, the Raiders had the No. 12 overall pick. Needing a wide receiver, they selected Henry Ruggs out of Alabama. Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk and Marquise Brown were all still available.
Ruggs posted fewer than 500 yards in each of his first two NFL seasons before an off-the-field incident ended his career. On the flip side, Jeudy, Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk and Brown have all had varying levels of success with their respective teams.
The Raiders chose poorly.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like former Raiders head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock.
With that said, I’ve been working on a new series for SI Fantasy looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and telling you who you should pick.
- Head-to-Head Series: Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence | Justin Fields or Justin Herbert | Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry | Rhamondre Stevenson or Travis Etienne | Kenneth Walker III or Jahmyr Gibbs
I started with the quarterbacks and running backs, and now I’ll continue this exercise with the wideouts. Our first look pits two of the biggest stars at the position, Ja’Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp. In the National Fantasy Football Championships, they’re coming off the board within five picks of one another, both in the first round of drafts.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In Cincinnati, Zac Taylor will be entering his fourth season as the head coach. We’ll focus on the most recent three years (since quarterback Joe Burrow took over the top spot on the depth chart). His offenses have finished among the top 12 in terms of pass percentage twice, including a fifth-place finish last season. His quarterbacks, mostly Burrow (42 games), have averaged 582 pass attempts in that time. Taylor has a great arsenal, too, with Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Irv Smith Jr. among the best options in what should remain an explosive passing game.
The Rams offense will continue to be run by head coach Sean McVay, who has led this team over the last six years. We’ll take a look at the last two years, during which time Matthew Stafford started the majority of the games. In that time, McVay’s team ranked ninth and 13th in pass percentage and averaged 569 pass attempts. It must be noted, though, that the Rams were on pace for 612 pass attempts last season before Stafford went down due to injuries. Heading into 2023, their pass attack lacks talent in the passing game outside of Kupp after the trade of Allen Robinson.
Winner: Chase
Receiving Skills
Chase has had one of the best starts to a career of any wideout in league history. He’s averaging more than 85 yards per contest and has 22 touchdown catches in his first 29 games. Chase has also averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game in PPR formats. He ranks second in yards after first contact among wideouts and is tied for ninth in big plays (catches of 20-plus yards). Chase is also tied for 10th in red zone looks and is third in broken tackles, behind only Deebo Samuel and CeeDee Lamb. If there’s one downside, it’s drops. Chase leads the league with 22 since 2021.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
As good as Chase has been in the stat sheets, Kupp has been better. He had the best fantasy season of any wide receiver in league history in 2021, recording 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. In all, he finished with a bananas 439.5 PPR points, the most a receiver has scored in a single season. Kupp was putting up great numbers last season, too, averaging 22.4 points before suffering an ankle injury that cost him the second half. Over the last two seasons, Kupp ranks tied for fourth in big plays, seventh in broken tackles and third in yards after first contact at his position. He’s also tied for third in red-zone looks and has just 10 drops.
Winner: Push
Quarterbacks
Chase has a very strong rapport with his quarterback, Burrow, who he played with collegiately at LSU before becoming his teammate in the pros. Entering his age-26 season, Burrow hasn’t even reached the prime of his NFL career yet. Based on the impressive numbers he’s already put up in his short career, that’s a scary thought for opposing defenses but an exciting one for fantasy managers moving forward.
Stafford has long been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks, dating back to his time in Detroit. He did have a down year in 2022, however, averaging a meager 12 points per game after averaging more than 19 the previous season. Entering this season at age 35 and coming off a year where he missed significant time due to concussions, one has to wonder if Stafford’s best days are behind him. On a positive note, at least as it pertains to Kupp, Stafford has tunnel vision for his top wideout. Over the last two years when both were active, 32% of Stafford’s pass attempts went to Kupp.
Winner: Chase
Durability
Chase missed five games last season due to an injured hip, but he’s been mostly a durable player in both college and in his short time in the pros. He missed his entire final season at LSU, but it wasn’t due to injuries. He opted out due to COVID-19.
Kupp has a longer NFL resume than Chase, so it only makes sense that he’s had more injuries. He missed half of the 2018 season due to an injured knee, and he was forced to miss eight games last year after he suffered an ankle injury. Between those two seasons, however, Kupp missed just one game. Still, when we also take age into consideration (Kupp will be 30 this season), Chase get the durability nod.
Winner: Chase
Strength of Schedule
Chase and the Bengals wideouts have the 11th-best slate of games for the 2023 season, including a Week 3 matchup against Kupp and the Rams. On the flip side, the Rams have the toughest slate of games for receivers based on last season’s fantasy points allowed data. Two of their NFC West opponents, the Cardinals and Seahawks, ranked among the eight toughest teams for wideouts to score on last year. Kupp will also face tough games against the Browns, Ravens and Eagles.
Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
Winner: Chase
And the Pick Is…
These two wide receivers are extremely close in fantasy value as you can obviously tell by their average draft position, and you really can’t go wrong with either player. But in my opinion, Chase is the better pick if for no other reasons than he’s younger and has a better quarterback. Kupp is also coming off an injury, which could be a bit tougher since he’s entering his age-30 season. Sometimes the older you are, the tougher it can be to get back to your previous statistical heights. Again, there’s a very slight difference in the two receivers in terms of their value, but it’s those few factors that make me side with Chase over Kupp in terms of your upcoming drafts.
