Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point. In the 2020 NFL draft, the Raiders had the No. 12 overall pick. Needing a wide receiver, they selected Henry Ruggs out of Alabama. Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk and Marquise Brown were all still available.
Ruggs posted fewer than 500 yards in each of his first two NFL seasons before an off-the-field incident ended his career. On the flip side, Jeudy, Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk and Brown have all had varying levels of success with their respective teams.
The Raiders chose poorly.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like former Raiders head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock.
With that said, I’ve been working on a new series for SI Fantasy looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and telling you who you should pick.
- Head-to-Head Series: Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence | Justin Fields or Justin Herbert | Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry | Rhamondre Stevenson or Travis Etienne | Kenneth Walker III or Jahmyr Gibbs | Ja’Marr Chase or Cooper Kupp | CeeDee Lamb or Davante Adams
I started with the quarterbacks and running backs, and now I’ll continue this exercise with the wideouts. This look pits two of the biggest names at the position, DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel. In the National Fantasy Football Championships, they’re coming off the board within five picks of one another, both in the third round of drafts.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In Seattle, Shane Waldron will be entering his third season as the team’s offensive coordinator. His offense ranked 20th in pass percentage in his first season, but that rose to 11th last year with Geno Smith under center. What’s more, the Seahawks were also 10th in net yards per pass attempt. Smith also threw the ball to his wide receivers 58% of the time, which is of course good news for Metcalf’s prospects in 2023. Smith will have another weapon in his arsenal, though, as the Seahawks took Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of the NFL draft.
Kyle Shanahan has been either an offensive coordinator or head coach for 15 years, during which time his offenses have ranked among the top 10 in net yards per pass attempt eight times. That includes six top-three finishes and two seasons where they were No. 1 (2016, 2021). His offenses in San Francisco have finished no worse than 15th in passing yards in six years, and their quarterbacks combined to produce 29 touchdown passes. Projected starter Brock Purdy had 13 of those scoring strikes. The Niners are loaded with receivers, including Aiyuk and George Kittle.
Winner: Samuel
Receiving Skills
Metcalf has averaged more than 13 fantasy points per game in PPR formats in each of the last three seasons, during which time he’s scored a combined 28 touchdowns. A big, strong target, Metcalf ranks tied for 11th in broken tackles since 2020. He’s also in the top 25 in yards after first contact and big plays (20-plus yards) during that time. The veteran does have 19 dropped passes in that time (50 games), however.
Samuel has averaged fewer than 13 PPR points per game in three of his four years in the NFL, with the lone exception being his breakout season of 2021 when he put up 21.2 points a game. Samuel, who also plays running back more than any other player at his position, leads all wideouts in broken tackles over the last three years. Samuel is also third in yards after first contact and is tied for sixth in big plays.
Winner: Push
Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports
Quarterbacks
Metcalf played his first three years with Russell Wilson under center, but Smith was his field general a season ago. That turned out to be good for his target totals, as he posted a career-high 141 chances in the passing game. He also caught a personal best 90 passes for 1,048 yards, but he also produced his lowest touchdown totals (6) as a pro. His yard per catch average was also a career-low 11.6 in 2022.
The 49ers starting quarterback could ultimately be a competition between Purdy and Trey Lance, though the former is considered the favorite. In six regular-season games with Purdy under center last year, Samuel averaged just 4.3 catches for just 40 yards, and he found the end zone three times (but just once as a receiver). What’s more, Samuel was held under 60 receiving yards in all six of those games.
Winner: Push
Durability
Metcalf has been a durable player for the Seahawks. In fact, he’s never missed a single game despite a few bumps and bruises including a knee injury that had some folks worried he’d miss significant time. In all, durability hasn’t been a concern.
Samuel’s style of play, which is physical and involves running the football at times, makes him more likely to suffer nagging injuries. In his career, he’s missed a total of 15 games including six in 2020 with a bum hamstring. On a positive note, Samuel has been able to play in at least 13 games in four of his four years in the league.
Winner: Metcalf
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
Strength of Schedule
The Seahawks have the third-easiest schedule for wideouts, which is a good thing for Metcalf. The slate includes two divisional games against the 49ers (fifth-most points allowed to wideouts in 2022) and the Rams, plus games against the Lions, Panthers and Titans (second weekend of the fantasy postseason). On the flip side, the Niners receivers have the ninth-toughest slate based on fantasy points allowed data from last season. Part of that is due to a pair of matchups against Metcalf’s Seahawks, who allowed the second-fewest points to wideouts in 2022.
Winner: Metcalf
And the Pick Is…
This is a tough call between two wideouts who both play a physical style of football. I’m siding with Metcalf, however, for a few reasons. First, he’s been the more consistent of the two players, averaging more than 13.3 points in each of his last three years. Samuel did have a monster season in 2021, when he averaged 21.2 points, but that seems to have been an outlier. In fact, his average in the 2020 and ’22 campaigns is just 12.2 points. Samuel also averaged 12.6 PPR points in his rookie season.
Samuel’s breakout year was heavily supported by his role in the backfield, as he had 59 carries for 365 yards and eight rushing touchdowns. Only one wideout in the Super Bowl era, Charley Taylor (who also played halfback), had more carries in a single season. Otherwise, Samuel’s 365 rushing yards and eight rushing scores are both the most in NFL history among wideouts. With Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell in the backfield rotation, though, Samuel’s role as a runner won’t be nearly as prominent. And with just one season of over 802 yards as a receiver in his four-year career, Samuel is not as valuable as Metcalf heading into 2023 drafts.
