Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point. In the 2010 NFL draft, the Bengals had the No. 21 overall pick. Needing a tight end, they selected Jermaine Gresham out of Oklahoma. They picked him ahead of another tight end out of Arizona who fell to Round 2 … Rob Gronkowski.
Gresham had a decent career in the NFL, but it wasn’t even close to what the man we call Gronk accomplished. He’ll be heading to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
The Bengals chose poorly.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like former Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis and general manager Mike Brown.
With that said, I’ve been working on a new series for SI Fantasy looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and telling you who you should pick.
- Head-to-Head Series: Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence | Justin Fields or Justin Herbert | Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry | Rhamondre Stevenson or Travis Etienne | Kenneth Walker III or Jahmyr Gibbs | Ja’Marr Chase or Cooper Kupp | CeeDee Lamb or Davante Adams | DK Metcalf or Deebo Samuel
We’ve gone through the quarterback, running backs and wide receivers, and now I’ll continue with the tight ends. This look pits two of the biggest names at the position, Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller. In the National Fantasy Football Championships, they’re coming off the board within five picks of one another, both in Round 6.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In Philadelphia, Nick Sirianni will be entering his third season as the head coach. His offenses have ranked near or at the bottom of the league in pass percentage in that time, finishing 32nd and 27th, respectively. The good news for Goedert is the Eagles ranked sixth in pass percentage to tight ends two years ago, though that percentage dropped to 23rd this past season. That could be due, in part, to the fact that Goedert missed five games. It’s also no coincidence that the Eagles have a great wideout duo in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. With those studs in the lineup, no team had a greater percentage of passes thrown to wide receivers last season.
Brian Daboll has been either an offensive coordinator or head coach for nine years, during which time his offenses have ranked among the top 15 in net yards per pass just twice. In his first season with the Giants, his offense was 29th in pass attempts and 27th in net yards per pass attempt. That’s not a surprise, though, as the G-Men built their offense around running back Saquon Barkley and didn’t have what we in the fantasy world would call a reliable group of wide receivers or tight ends.
Winner: Goedert
Receiving Skills
Goedert has averaged more than 10 fantasy points a game in PPR formats in each of the last three seasons, and he’s averaged over four catches a game in that time. In the last two years, Goedert has ranked in the top four among tight ends in big plays (20-plus yards). In 2021, he was tied with Gronkowski and Gerald Everett for the league lead in broken tackles at the position. A reliable pass catcher, Goedert has dropped just six passes in the last two years over a combined 145 targets.
Waller has averaged over 12 PPR points per game in three of the last four seasons, but he recorded just 9.4 points a game last year. That’s his worst total since 2018. He has also seen his per game average decline in each of the last three seasons. Waller is a playmaker, though, ranking fifth among tight ends in big plays over the last two years. That’s despite the fact that he hasn’t broken a lot of tackles (T-26th since 2021) or produced a high number of yards after the catch (26th).
Winner: Push
Quarterbacks
Goedert has played his last two seasons with Jalen Hurts under center, during which time he’s averaged 5.3 targets and 11.3 fantasy points per game. He has had a bit of a cap on his reception totals, though, as Goedert has never recorded more than 58 catches in a single season since 2019. He’s also found the end zone just seven times in 27 regular-season games since Hurts took over the Eagles offense. On a positive note, his yards per catch average has improved with Hurts under center.
Daniel Jones will remain the starting quarterback in New York after posting a nice first season under Daboll. A lot of his success came as a runner, though, as Jones threw for just 3,205 yards. He also threw to his tight ends just 13.6% of the time, which is around 4% less than Hurts, but that had much to do with a lack of reliable options at the position. With Waller in the mix after an offseason trade and no real alpha wide receivers on the roster, it’s quite possible the veteran tight end could be Jones’s favorite target.
Winner: Goedert
Durability
Goedert missed time last season due to an injured shoulder, and he was forced out of five games in 2020 due to thumb and ankle ailments. He’s also played in fewer than the full slate of games in each of his last four seasons, missing a combined 12 games during that time. The South Dakota State product will be 28 this season.
Waller played in a full 16 games in 2019-20, but he’s been far less durable ever since. In fact, he’s missed a combined 14 games over the last two years including eight in 2022. His injuries in that time included hamstring and ankle issues. Waller has had hamstring issues in the past, too, as he missed nine games back in 2015 due to a bum hammy. He’ll also enter this upcoming season at the age of 31.
Winner: Goedert
Strength of Schedule
Goedert and Waller both play in the NFC East and have similar schedules as a result. In fact, the difference in their strength of schedule based on last year’s fantasy points allowed totals is 0.7 with Goedert having an ever so slight advantage. Regardless, the schedule won’t favor either player heavily heading into the season.
Winner: Push
And the Pick Is…
The winner here is really based on what you’re looking for in a tight end. If you want a reliable, consistent player with a somewhat limited ceiling, it’s Goedert. While he’s averaged more than 10 PPR points per game in three straight seasons, he’s never put up more than 11.8 points per contest and has not been much of a touchdown scorer at the NFL level. Where Goedert produces points is as a reliable target for Hurts, averaging four catches per game with the mobile quarterback at the helm.
Fantasy managers looking for a tight end with a higher ceiling who comes with more risk should side with Waller. He’s put up elite totals for fantasy managers in two of the last four years, and there’s a good chance he could lead all Giants receivers in targets and catches this season. Of course, that also depends on him staying on the field. That’s been a problem, as he’s missed a combined 14 games in the last two years and is no longer a “young” tight end entering his age-31 campaign.
I’d rather have a more reliable, consistent tight end, so I’ll go with Goedert ahead of Waller in my drafts. But it’s an extremely close call, and those who don’t mind taking a risk looking for a much bigger reward should absolutely side with Waller.
