In analyzing any team’s passing game for fantasy football talent, everything starts with who is throwing the ball. If you have don’t have an elite quarterback, everyone’s value takes a hit.
The New Orleans Saints do not have one.
In most ADP rankings, Derek Carr is on the cusp of being left off drafted rosters. Do you take Carr over someone like Geno Smith, Will Levis, Daniel Jones or Bryce Young? There isn’t a lot of confidence that Carr can get the job done as anything but a one-week plug-in for a desperate fantasy roster.
One certainty is that Carr has locked in on his primary target – wide receiver Chris Olave, who was targeted 138 times in 16 games last season, catching 87 passes for 1,123 yards and five touchdowns. He’s on the border of a WR1 or WR2 in 12-team fantasy leagues. The rest of those in the Saints’ passing game are a different story. They’ll be fighting for what’s left beyond Olave.
Running backs
What has made Alvin Kamara a weekly fantasy starter throughout his career is his ability as a receiver as well as being the lead rusher. Despite not playing every game of a season since his rookie year in 2017, Kamara has caught 75 or more passes in five of seven seasons, including 75 receptions last year.
Kamara has finished first or second among Saints receiving options in receptions in all seven seasons. That consistent usage in the passing game can’t be denied or ignored. He remains the No. 2 weapon in the Saints’ aerial game in volume share, and there is no reason to believe that is going to change by design this year.
Given Kamara’s injury history, there has to be a Plan B in place. While Jamaal Williams is viewed as the backup (the next version of Mark Ingram the Saints are trying to replicate), his fantasy value is minimal, because he has caught just 30 passes in his last 30 games.
Kendre Miller has many of the same qualities as a young Kamara and would likely be first in line in Kamara goes down to injury. However, he played in only eight games as a rookie last year and needs to prove he can stay on the field, which already has been an issue this summer.
Wide receivers
There isn’t much quality depth behind Olave at wide receiver, but one player to keep an eye on is Rashid Shaheed. He has already proved he’s the best deep threat on the roster. In two seasons, Shaheed has averaged more than 16 yards per reception and, in 15 games last year, caught 46 passes for 719 yards and five touchdowns.
Veteran free agent Cedrick Wilson is expected to take over the Michael Thomas role as a chain-mover, though not a big scorer. However, in the last 30 games in Miami’s high-powered offense, Wilson caught just 36 passes and scored three touchdowns.
Second-year receiver A.T. Perry is huge (6-foot-5, 205) and could be an immediate red-zone threat, but he’ll need time to further develop his game and is considered a wild card at this point.
Tight ends
The Saints have a tight end tandem who are both likely to get onto the fantasy radar. Taysom Hill has been extremely versatile in the Saints offense as a receiver, goal line rusher, and part-time quarterback. Over the last five years, Hill has been involved in scoring 47 touchdowns (25 rushing, 11 receiving, and 11 passing).
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In new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s scheme, Juwan Johnson (foot) is expected to play a significantly larger role once fully healthy. Over the last two seasons, Johnson has caught 79 passes for 876 yards and 11 touchdowns. The buzz in New Orleans is that he could be a breakout candidate who could shatter his previous season highs, though all of that hinges on a speedy recovery.
Fantasy football outlook
With Olave entrenched as a late WR1 or early WR2, the pecking order behind him is all over the board in 12-team leagues.
At running back, because of his consistently high volume as both a rusher and receiver, Kamara is solidly entrenched as a RB2. Because of his big-play ability, Miller is likely a late RB4 or No. 5, and his value would skyrocket if Kamara gets injured. Because he’s a one-dimensional backup, Williams is a RB6, at best, unless Miller continues to miss time.
No wide receiver has elite fantasy value other than Olave. Shaheed’s big-play ability makes him a plug-and-play option with upside as a WR5. Neither Perry nor Wilson have fantasy draft value.
Both of the Saints tight ends will likely be drafted in deep formats and have TE2 rankings. Hill’s versatility and sustained history of scoring touchdowns is hard to deny. The only issue is consistency – you’re never sure when Hill is going to get a lot of usage.
Johnson is expected to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the new offense and could be in line for a career year as a TE2 near the end of drafts … again, predicated on a speedy return to health. He’s still worthy of the late-round gamble because of potential alone.
