Last year’s plan for the Cleveland Browns offense was for Nick Chubb to compete for the NFL rushing title. Coming off a 300-carry, 1,500-yard season in 2022, Chubb was expected to follow that up in a big way.
He lasted 46 seconds into the second quarter of Week 2 when he suffered a catastrophic left knee injury … again.
In 2015 at Georgia, Chubb tore is his left PCL, MCL and LCL and dislocated his knee. Eight years later, he tore his left MCL and meniscus and had a second surgery to repair his left ACL. Chubb has officially run out of left knee ligaments.
The Browns may believe that Chubb won’t be ready for this season. After Chubb’s injury, the team traded for Pierre Strong and signed free agents D’Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines in the offseason. That stinks of worry.
Nick Chubb
The severity of Chubb’s injury is a huge factor in where he will be selected in fantasy drafts. In 2022, Chubb had a career year, rushing 302 times for 1,525 yards, catching 27 passes for 239 yards, and scoring 13 touchdowns. When healthy, Chubb is as dominant as any back in the league. He has averaged 5.3 yards a carry – higher than Browns GOAT Jim Brown. The only running back in NFL history with more than 750 rushing attempts and a better per-rush average is Jamaal Charles.
There is a strong sentiment that Chubb is likely to start the season on the PUP list, which would mean he would miss the first four games. Even if he’s on the opening day roster, he will likely be on a pitch count. Despite that, his ADP has him as a late RB3.
Jerome Ford
Ford had to step into one of the biggest voids in the NFL last season when Chubb went down. As a rookie in 2022, Ford had just eight carries for 12 yards in 13 games. Forced into the spotlight, Ford put together a solid fantasy season by rushing 204 times for 813 yards, catching 44 passes for 319 yards, and scoring nine touchdowns. He has earned his spot in the offense and will likely open the season as the primary back with a chance of never giving up the spot.
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It doesn’t bode well with the other moves the Browns have made to address running back, but Ford will likely be Cleveland’s RB1 in Week 1. From there on? His value is like reading tea leaves for answers.
D'Onta Foreman
The Browns didn’t re-sign Kareem Hunt, who scored nine rushing touchdowns last season. Over the last three seasons with the Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears, Foreman scored 12 rushing touchdowns on 445 carries. He will have to push for playing time, but his role as a short-yardage/goal-line back gives Foreman value in a limited role because he brings nothing to the passing game.
Pierre Strong Jr. and Nyheim Hines
In two seasons – one with New England and one with Cleveland – Strong has rushed 73 times for 391 yards, caught 12 passes for 89 yards, and scored two touchdowns in 32 games. Strong was used as a change-of-pace back in Cleveland last year, but he finds himself in a battle with Hines and Foreman for a roster spot when Chubb returns.
Hines (knee) missed last season following a jet ski accident, but he caught 210 passes (never fewer than 40 in any season) in his four full seasons with the Indianapolis Colts to start his career. Like Foreman and Strong, whenever Chubb returns, one of those three backs will be gone. Hines can be a third-down/receiving specialist who could make an impact if given the chance.
Fantasy football outlook
Everything hinges on Chubb making a return and when it happens. If there is confidence he will be good to go in the first couple weeks of the season, his value will jump higher than his current ranking at the end of the RB3 tier in 12-team leagues. Expect to have a firmer answer as of Aug. 27 roster cuts.
Ford isn’t far behind Chubb in ADP rankings as a high-RB4. Foreman, Strong and Hines have no legitimate fantasy value outside of Chubb being sidelined and their roles increasing.
Many fantasy managers have an issue with taking damaged goods before a season starts. For those with drafts prior to teams cutting rosters down and it becomes obvious whether Chubb will miss a minimum of four games, it’s difficult to have Chubb any higher than an RB4 because of the amount of time he will be guaranteed of missing.
Ford could be a decent value pick as an RB4. Even if Chubb comes back relatively early in the season, Ford has proven his utility as the No. 2 option. It won’t be an 80/20 time split like things have been throughout most of Chubb’s career. Cleveland rolled with roughly a 60/40 share between Ford and Hunt a year ago, and both were useful.
The Browns want to run, but there are too many unanswered questions to be overly bullish on any of these guys … unless a fantasy roster has a couple of weekly RB studs already on their rosters to warrant risking a pick on upside potential.
