Every season brings surprises that weren’t necessarily expected from where fantasy players were drafted. Not many would have guessed that Sam Howell and C.J. Stroud would be No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in passing yards heading into December. Few would have projected that the top 10 rushers in the league 12 weeks into the season would include Raheem Mostert (No. 2), D’Andre Swift (No. 4), James Cook (No. 6), Travis Etienne (No. 7) and Zack Moss (No. 10).
But when it comes to receiving yards, the script hasn’t changed. The wide receivers expected to be at or near the top of the charts were picked high because they’ve been there before. Of the top 12 in receiving yards, only Puka Nacua is a surprise. The other top guys were drafted as top guys – Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, DJ Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans and Davante Adams.
As you prepare next year for your fantasy football draft, keep it in the back of your mind that receivers are much more predictable than quarterbacks and running backs for top-end value – and should be ranked as such.
Fantasy football risers
Houston Texans WR Tank Dell – Dell deserved to be on this list much earlier, but over the last month he has become a must-start player moving forward. In the last four games, he’s been targeted 43 times, catching 25 passes for 369 yards and five touchdowns, and has weekly PPR totals of 29.6, 18.9, 28.9 and 17.2. Those are all-star numbers, and there is no reason to think it will slow down.
Baltimore Ravens TE Isaiah Likely – When you’re stuck behind Mark Andrews, there isn’t a lot of room for fantasy production, but a huge void needs filling with Andrews gone for the season. In the first game without Andrews, Likely was second on the team in targets (6) and receptions (4) and had the most receiving yards (40). So much of the Ravens’ passing offense has been predicated on extensively using the tight end. Likely could be stepping into a very strong fantasy spot, like Dalton Kincaid did when Dawson Knox went down.
Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice – The Chiefs have tried (and failed) to replace Tyreek Hill with veterans. Rice hasn’t set the world on fire, but he’s been consistent. The key for a back-of-the-roster fantasy player is consistency. In 11 games, he’s been targeted five or more times in eight games and has scored four touchdowns over the last seven weeks. His 44 receptions are more than the next two Chiefs wide receivers combined. He isn’t a fantasy stud, but when you have Patrick Mahomes, it’s nice to have one of his guys as insurance.
Green Bay Packers WR Jayden Reed – The Packers aren’t great fantasy prospects, but the rookie receiver has emerged as a steady target. His is second on the team in receptions (36) and touchdowns (6) and leads the team in receiving yards (497). He has caught four or more passes in four of his last five games and, in the last four games, has rushed six times for 83 yards and a touchdown. The team is finding ways to incorporate him into game plans, and he’s starting to consistently make an impact.
Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku – When you don’t have a star tight end, the best you can hope for is consistent production. Njoku has been bringing that despite changes at quarterback. In his last six games, his point totals have been 10.4, 17.7, 12.6, 11.8, 12.6 and 11.9. They aren’t numbers that blow you away, but they help contribute to winning.
Fantasy football fallers
Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua – After tearing things up in the first five weeks of the season, Nacua has become much more hit-and-miss. In his last four games, he has posted point totals of 7.3, 6.2, 18.7 and 6.7. Those who rostered Nacua have been playing him, but given the recent struggles of both Nacua and Cooper Kupp (who hasn’t scored 7.0 fantasy points in any of the last five games), they’re no longer locks to be in starting lineups, unless fear of a huge game keeps them starting.
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence – Lawrence is tied for 19th in touchdown passes with just 12 in 11 games and has just one 300-yard passing game. His only recent saving grace is that he has rushed for three touchdowns in the last two games after offering little with his legs in the first nine. Fantasy quarterbacks need to throw touchdown passes and Lawrence hasn’t thrown more than two in any game and has one or none in eight games. He is viewed as a weekly starter, but hasn’t been putting fantasy teams on his back. Attrition of other QBs is all that keeps him fantasy-relevant.
Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin – McLaurin has been a lineup staple for years despite a revolving door at quarterback. However, this year has been different. Sam Howell leads the NFL in passing yards, yet McLaurin hasn’t had more than 90 yards in any game, has six games with 50 yards or less, is averaging five catches for 58 yards a game, and has scored only two touchdowns. In his last three games, he has just 13 catches for 126 yards and no TDs. You don’t stay in starting lineups long that way.
Pittsburgh Steelers WR George Pickens – Pickens topped 100 yards three times in his first six games but has disappeared over the last five. In that recent span, he has caught just 13 passes for 162 yards and one touchdown and has weekly point totals of 9.2, 1.9, 7.5, 7.7 and 8.8. It may be time to cut bait with Pickens (if you haven’t already).
Dallas Cowboys WR Michael Gallup – Gallup was viewed as the No. 2 guy in Dallas coming into the season but has completely disappeared over the last two months. In his last seven games, Gallup has caught 15 passes for 182 yards and one touchdown. In that span, his weekly point totals have been 3.5, 5.4, 4.0, 3.9, 15.0, 6.1 and 2.3. With the exception of one week, despite being part of a high-octane offense, Gallup has been a fantasy liability for two months.
