During the course of the season, we look at the unheralded players who are exceeding their anticipated production (fantasy football risers) and those who required a significant investment but aren’t living up to their hype (fantasy football fallers).
For Week 1, everybody has a record of 0-0 and hopes are strong that everyone who has assembled a fantasy roster was the smartest person in the war room. Reality and injuries will help bring those dreams crashing down for many – some sooner than others – but as we head into Week 1, everyone has the goal of winning a league championship.
Here is the Week 1 Fantasy Football Market Report:
Fantasy football risers
Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson – Not long ago, rookies were viewed as risky first-round fantasy picks because they were unproven NFL commodities. Over the last few years, the immediate success rate of rookie running backs has pushed them up the board. In most drafts this year, Robinson was a top-five pick despite a questionable offense in Atlanta. Seeing how the NFL seems willing to burn through running backs and move on, everyone expects Robinson to be a dual threat immediately.
New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson – Despite a revolving door in the quarterbacks room last year, Wilson managed 83 receptions for 1,104 yards and four touchdowns. With the arrival of Aaron Rodgers and a slew of veteran role players at skill positions, the expectation is New York’s offense will be one of the most dangerous in the league. Rodgers had a rapport with Davante Adams that was consistent over several years, and Wilson will have every opportunity to be that player in New York’s new-look offense.
New York Giants TE Darren Waller – Once viewed as a top tight end with the Las Vegas Raiders, after catching 107 passes for 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns in 2020, his last two seasons have been marred by injury. He missed 14 games and his production was spotty when he played. His trade to the Giants has many believing he can return to his dominant form that made him a breakout star and become the Giants’ version of Travis Kelce.
Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard – For the last couple of seasons, Pollard was viewed as Ezekiel Elliott‘s little brother despite consistently being more productive when given the chance. With Elliott out of the picture, Pollard is finally going to get the opportunity he has been denied as the guy in a platoon. With a full-time workload, he could rival the numbers Elliott posted in his prime.
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley – A year ago, it seemed as though Ridley’s career could be over as he battled injuries, mental health issues, and a one-year suspension for gambling on NFL games. When Jacksonville swung a trade to add Ridley they brought in a talented player looking to reclaim his career with one of the most explosive young offenses in the league. Huge things are possible here.
Fantasy football fallers
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor – The 2023 calendar year has been nightmare for Taylor. He held out of training camp, was given permission to seek a trade (on the Colts’ terms), and was put on the Physically Unable to Perform list when that didn’t happen. At a minimum, he will miss the first four games of the season. For a guy who was the consensus No. 1 overall pick in last year’s fantasy drafts, it has been a significant fall from grace that could linger deep into the 2023 season.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford – The Rams received what they wanted when they swung the blockbuster deal with Detroit to acquire Stafford – a Super Bowl title – but now Stafford looks broken down and one big hit away from retirement. In 10-player fantasy leagues that teams take two quarterbacks, Stafford remains available on the waiver wire in most of them – even with Cooper Kupp (hamstring) at his disposal … eventually. It’s been a quick and pronounced descent for a former star.
San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel – In 2021, Samuel became a rare dual threat wide receiver/running back for the 49ers due to running back injuries. But when Christian McCaffrey arrived last midseason, Samuel’s rushing component all but went away, and he was battling injuries of his own. A WR1 or high WR2 in most leagues last year, he’s a late-WR2 or early-to-mid-WR3 this season. Brock Purdy lit things up late last year, but his deep throws went to George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, making Samuel a possession receiver.
New England Patriots RB Ezekiel Elliott – Elliott was an elite fantasy back for years with Dallas, but his recent production didn’t match his salary and he was released. Zeke ended up in New England, which is known for mixing and matching running backs. His arrival didn’t hurt Rhamondre Stevenson‘s draft stock, and the perennial first-round pick was drafted as RB5 in most formats with the expectation that Elliot will be a part-time back with snap count limits.
Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox – Knox was the only tight end show in town during the ascent of Josh Allen, but the drafting of Dalton Kincaid has put Knox’s production in serious question. He may still be a difference-maker in the red zone, but he currently looks to be more of an in-line blocking tight end than a fantasy presence.
