It is Super Bowl LIX week, so there is only one game to enjoy. Fortunately, all the major sites offer single-game (and even partial-game) contests, often called Showdowns.
These contests introduce different strategies compared to regular full-slate DFS contests, so I will break them down for you besides analyzing the individual players in the game.
First up: The Rules
On DK, you must assemble a six-man roster for $50k or less, using at least one player from each team. In addition, we must identify one of those six players as your “captain.” The captain receives 1.5x of his total output (including potential negative points). This captain typically costs 1.5x more than their standard salary.
On FD, you have more money ($60k) for fewer spots (only five). You still select a captain (or as they call it, an MVP). The difference is that your MVP costs the same as your non-MVPs. There is no penalty for putting a player in that slot, so you want the top scorer in your lineup as the captain, regardless of his price.
Second: The Usual Strategies
Much like in regular DFS, you can stack correlative players (QB-WR/TE) or (RB-DEF). The key thing to remember, though, is you need to have at least one player from both teams.
If you believe the game will be one-sided, stack your favored QB along with one of his receiving weapons, plus his RB1, and their defense, and then run it back with an aerial weapon of the opposition.
If you believe the game will be high-scoring and close, then you will probably want to do a stack, including both QBs and at least one receiving option for each team.
If you feel both teams will struggle to score, then you should use both defenses and one or both kickers.
Potential lineups for DK
Captain: Saquon Barkley ($18.0k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($10.0k), Jalen Hurts ($10.4k), Dallas Goedert ($5.8k), Kenneth Gainwell ($3.4k), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2.0k)
This lineup gives you Saquon as captain, both QBs, and Goedert versus a rotten TE defense. It also gives you Gainwell (concussion) or Will Shipley, implying that this will be an easy victory for Philly. If you foresee another seven-rushing score game for Philly, this is the winning strategy.
Captain: Saquon Barkley ($18.0k)
Roster: Kareem Hunt ($6.4k), Jalen Hurts ($10.4k), Dallas Goedert ($5.8k), Xavier Worthy ($8.0k), Samaje Perine ($1.2k)
Maybe both teams concentrate on ground-and-pound this week. I don’t love this strategy, but it should have a strong variance from the mainstream.
Captain: Jalen Hurts ($15.6k)
Roster: A.J. Brown ($9.6k), DeVonta Smith ($7.4k), Dallas Goedert ($5.8k), Marquise Brown ($5.4k), Jake Elliott ($4.8k)
If you believe Philly will dominate, but you want to fade the chalk, Barkley: The Chiefs have been solid versus RBs, but I do not recommend this strategy.
Captain: Jalen Hurts ($15.6k)
Roster: A.J. Brown ($9.6k), Saquon Barkley ($12.0k), DeVonta Smith ($7.4k), Jake Elliott ($4.8k), Justin Watson ($0.6k)
If you still think Philly is the team to beat, and you want exposure to Barkley, but you want differentiation at captain.
Captain: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($9.0k), Jalen Hurts ($10.4k), Xavier Worthy ($8.0k), Marquise Brown ($5.4k), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2.0k)
Perhaps you think the Chiefs’ three-peat is inevitable. This gets you massive exposure to them and runs it back with Hurts.
Captain: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($9.0k), Saquon Barkley ($12.0k), DeAndre Hopkins ($4.4k), Harrison Butker ($5.0k), Kansas City Chiefs ($4.0k)
If you think KC is going to dominate but still want some exposure to Barkley.
Captain: Travis Kelce ($13.5k)
Roster: Jalen Hurts ($10.4k), Patrick Mahomes ($10.0k), DeVonta Smith ($7.4k), Marquise Brown ($5.4k), Noah Gray ($2.8k)
Maybe you think this game will be a passing-game shootout and you want some of the top pass catchers for both teams.
Captain: Xavier Worthy ($12.0k)
Roster: Jalen Hurts ($10.4k), Patrick Mahomes ($10.0k), A.J. Brown ($9.6k), Dallas Goedert ($5.8k), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2.0k)
Maybe you think this game will be a shootout, but you think Philly takes out Kelce.
Captain: Philadelphia Eagles ($6.3k)
Roster: Kansas City Chiefs ($4.0k), Saquon Barkley ($12.0k), Kareem Hunt ($6.4k), Either QB ($10.0k or 10.4k), Either kicker ($5.0k or $4.8k)
Both teams have elite-level defenses. It isn’t likely, but perhaps we have a low-scoring Super Bowl.
Potential lineups for FD
MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($14.0k) or Jalen Hurts ($13.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($12.0k), Xavier Worthy ($11.5k), Dallas Goedert ($10.0k), A.J. Brown ($12.5k)
One of Mahomes or Hurts at MVP tied together with their top two receiving options, running it back with the top two receiving weapons of the opposition. This lineup fades Barkley.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($14.0k)
Roster: DeAndre Hopkins ($8.5k), Xavier Worthy ($11.5k), Jalen Hurts ($13.5k), A.J. Brown ($12.5k)
Another Barkley-free lineup but with both QBs.
MVP: Saquon Barkley ($16.5k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($14.0k), Jalen Hurts ($13.5k), Jake Elliott ($9.0k), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7.0k)
This gives you exposure to Barkley and both QBs. Unfortunately, it means taking some risky bottom-filling plays. You can easily sub in Butker and Dotson for Elliott and JuJu if you wish.
MVP: Saquon Barkley ($16.5k)
Roster: Jalen Hurts ($13.5k), DeAndre Hopkins ($8.5k), DeVonta Smith ($11.0k), Dallas Goedert ($10.0k)
The safer option, if you want exposure to Barkley, is to use only one of the QBs. This is my favorite Eagles-forward option.
MVP: Saquon Barkley ($16.5k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($14.0k), Travis Kelce ($12.0k), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7.0k), Dallas Goedert ($10.0k)
Another safe option, if you want exposure to Barkley. This is my favorite Chiefs-forward option.
MVP: Saquon Barkley ($16.5k)
Roster: Jalen Hurts ($13.5k), A.J. Brown ($12.5k), Philadelphia Eagles ($8.0k), Harrison Butker ($9.0k)
This lineup gets you maximum Eagles’ exposure, in case you think they blow out KC.
MVP: Travis Kelce ($12.0k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($14.0k), Xavier Worthy ($11.5k), Marquise Brown ($9.5k), A.J. Brown ($12.5k)
This lineup gets you maximum Chiefs’ exposure, in case you think they blow out Philly. Note you can flip-flop Kelce and Mahomes, if preferred.
MVP: Saquon Barkley ($16.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($12.0k), Dallas Goedert ($10.0k), Kareem Hunt ($10.5k), DeVonta Smith ($11.0k)
Would you dare skip both QBs? I wouldn’t, but this is a path.
The Game
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Jalen Hurts‘ knee hasn’t been 100% since the Divisional Round. Of course, that didn’t stop him from rushing for three scores last week. Those rushing TDs look sexy, but he finished with just 16 yards on 10 carries. KC has struggled against rushing QBs by allowing 4.9 YPC this season. Still over the final 13 games, only two QBs scored rushing TDs against them. Hurts needs the rushing score to reach value as he has thrown for multiple TDs only seven times all season.
Philly is elite against the pass. During the regular season, only one team allowed fewer passing yards. Their domination continued in the playoffs as their three opponents combined for only four passing TDs and four INTs. Patrick Mahomes posted more than one passing TD only eight times this year. I don’t love his prospects here of topping 250-2. He may need to have another big rushing game to achieve value.
Saquon Barkley had one of the greatest seasons by an RB in history. During the regular season, KC limited opposing RBs to an average of only 94 total yards per game. That said, they struggled to stop RBs in each playoff game. Kenneth Gainwell (head) has time to clear the concussion protocol. If he plays, he can be a roster filler. Will Shipley scored in relief of Barkley last week. He only will have value if Gainwell is out. Even then, I don’t see a path to using him.
As elite as KC is against the run, Philly is even better. Only six RBs have scored against them all season (including the playoffs). Kareem Hunt has 68% of the Chiefs’ RB opportunities in the postseason. If you need to start a KC running back, choose him. Hunt has a redemption arc in play, but he feels TD-dependent. Isiah Pacheco has been a non-factor since returning from his midseason injury. He won’t have value without a Hunt injury. Plus, his salary remains too high to consider. Samaje Perine was the hero of last week’s game. Despite not seeing many opportunities, he plays frequently on passing downs, making him a sneaky roster filler at a punt price.
Opposing WR1s have had minuscule success against the Chiefs. Khalil Shakir and Nico Collins combined to post a scoreless 11-127 this postseason. A.J. Brown had a solid game versus Washington, but he did nothing in the first two rounds. This week feels like a 6-60-1 ceiling with a much lower floor. Opponents have shut out DeVonta Smith (hamstring) this postseason, limiting him to only four catches each week. Still, I prefer him considering the price difference. The depth WRs for Philly have a combined total of two targets and one reception this postseason. You should fade Jahan Dotson (unless Smith is out) and Parris Campbell, but Johnny Wilson could be a TD-dependent dart throw at game-minimum cost.
Unlike last season, KC has several threats at WR to choose from. Xavier Worthy has been the most consistent weapon this year. That said, I prefer Marquise Brown. Hollywood finished second in targets last week, and his price is considerably lower than Worthy’s. DeAndre Hopkins has drawn only three targets this postseason. Still, he has the “future HOFer playing in his first Super Bowl” storyline. He may not see high volume, but this feels like a touchdown in waiting. JuJu Smith-Schuster had two crucial catches last week. At his price, I will have a ton of exposure at the bottom of my rosters. Justin Watson is a zero-cost dart throw. His size makes him a red-zone threat.
KC has been rotten against the TE position this season. Dallas Goedert will have a gigantic game and will be my highest-owned player. Despite his infrequent usage, I will even consider using Grant Calcaterra as a punt.
Travis Kelce may retire after this game. He may propose after this game. He may do none of the above. One thing is for sure, Kelce will be a force during this game. He has 21 total TDs in 24 career playoff games. He also has topped 70 receiving yards in 14 of his last 15 playoff games. The one exception came last week. Philly performed well against the position during the regular season, but opposing teams obliterated them over the last two games. This matchup (and his early season usage) is juicy enough that Noah Gray deserves consideration as a punt.
Jake Elliott has 27 points this postseason. He also has four missed kicks. Fortunately, DFS sites do not negate points for missed kicks. Consider him safe for greater than seven points this week.
Harrison Butker had some minor struggles when returning from his knee injury. Fortunately, he has righted the ship and averaged 8.5 PPG over the two playoff contests. This is his floor here.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has dominated the opposition during the playoffs, securing multiple sacks and turnovers in every game. Still, their price is too high to use, unless you are certain that the game will be low-scoring. I do not trust that happening.
The Kansas City Chiefs have a fierce defense that has been opportunistic all season. Even against a great offensive line, they will net multiple sacks. Philly has injury issues at the center position, which could open the floodgates. Much like the Eagles, I am probably fading the position.
