The ‘boom or bust’ conundrum can hit any fantasy manager at any point in the season.
You see a big name player you know you shouldn’t trust, but all that darn potential makes to too hard to pass up on.
Nowhere does this problem claim more victims than during a fantasy draft. Most of the time it’s because a risky player has fallen so far down the board it seems silly to pass on him. Other times it’s because a name you promised yourself you wouldn’t take is suddenly the best available.
Each fantasy manager will have to answer the boom or bust question for themselves, but we can at least get you prepared with a list of 10 players everyone should be weary of this year.
They’ll either lead you to a title or crush your hopes and dreams.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
The Boom: One of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL both as a runner and a receiver. He’ll likely go in the first round of every draft and factor into just about every Panthers drive.
The Bust: A lengthy injury history that led him to play three games in 2020 and seven games last year. There won’t be a snap this season where you aren’t holding your breath for the Carolina star.
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
The Boom: He can run pretty dang well for a quarterback and tends to be pretty accurate from the pocket—especially on deep balls, where he completed nearly 45 percent of 20+ yards pass attempts. The Bears should be playing from behind plenty this year, so expect a ton more of those attempts.
The Bust: He’s going to be on the run a lot given the looks of Chicago’s offensive line—to say nothing of the turf—and won’t have a ton of great options to target outside of Darnell Mooney.
Allen Robinson, WR, Los Angeles Rams
The Boom: He’s found a way to reach 1,100+ yards receiving three times in eight years despite playing with quarterbacks Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles. Now he’s playing with the Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams and a known commodity in Matthew Stafford.
The Bust: He’s going to have to fight for his targets, let alone receptions, with fellow pass-catchers Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. all capable of breaking off big plays.
Julio Jones, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Boom: C’mon. It’s Julio. Seven-time Pro Bowler. Two-time All-Pro. Led the league in receiving yards in 2015 and 2018. And now he’s playing with his best QB yet in Tom Brady. That’s also notable since Brady has a penchant for getting his guys to hit their contract incentives and Jones gets an extra $200,000 for every 100 receiving yards after 500 as well as an extra $200,000 for every 10 receptions after 40.
The Bust: How much does he have left in him? An ugly experiment with Tennessee last year saw Jones play just 10 games. He recorded 434 yards and one TD on 31 catches. It was ugly. And at 33 years old, it’s fair to wonder if he can still get back to his mesmerizing ways behind Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
The Boom: A breakout season at age 30 saw Patterson officially move to tailback in Atlanta before recording 1,166 all-purpose yards with 11 touchdowns.
The Bust: It seemed like a highly unsustainable pace last year and will probably have even more doubters in 2022. Atlanta is squarely in play for the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft and won’t have a ton else to play for. Wideout Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts should remain the primary targets in an offense that’ll be playing from behind quite a bit.
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The Boom: The Vikings should contend in the NFC North this season and seem to have as complete a team as it could hope for in years. Thielen could be a big part of that. He’s gone for more than 1,200+ yards twice in his career and has scored at least nine touchdowns in three of his last four seasons.
The Bust: He’s also now in his ninth season and coming off a year in which he saw rookie Justin Jefferson become the No. 1 receiver. Kirk Cousins is still his quarterback and Thielen hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2018.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Carolina Panthers
The Boom: He’s officially QB1 in Carolina. He’s a popular pick to win Comeback Player of the Year. He’s motivated to prove Cleveland wrong. Oh, and he put up 3,827 passing yards in 2019 with 22 touchdowns.
The Bust: About those 22 touchdowns…they also came a career-worst 21 interceptions. That’s prime ‘boom or bust’ material. He’s a fine quarterback in real life but on a meh Panthers team this year he’s a fantasy question mark.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
The Boom: Bettors absolutely love Rhamondre and have hammered his extremely long odds to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. The second-year pro out of Oklahoma could become the leading backfield piece of a re-emerging Patriots squad.
The Bust: He’s behind Damien Harris on the depth chart to begin the year and New England tailbacks are notoriously hard to predict with Bill Belichick’s propensity to switch things up without warning.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
The Boom: As elusive a running back as the Giants have had in decades and the type of workhorse in the backfield who makes you forget the offense has other runners behind him.
The Bust: Injuries. So many injuries. If Barkley can get back into a rhythm anything like his rookie season (1,307 yards, 11 TDs), he’s a fantasy gold mine. We’re still waiting to find out if that’s possible.
