Now that NFL free agency is upon us, we’ll run through the fantasy football outlooks for trades, re-signings, midrange deals, and tag recipients.
This analysis will be updated as players continue to move about in free agency, so be sure to check back regularly.
Traded/signed with a new team
- WR Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans (4/3)
- QB Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers (3/16)
- WR Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears (3/14)
- WR Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans (3/13)
- WR Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers (3/12)
- RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (3/12)
- RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (3/12)
- RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans (3/12)
- RB Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals (3/11)
- RB Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders (3/11)
- QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (3/11)
- RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (3/11)
- RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers (3/11)
- RB Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (3/11)
- RB D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (3/11)
NEW (4/17) — RB J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers: The former Baltimore Raven heads west to join the Bolts and be reunited with his former OC as well as fellow running back Gus Edwards. This will be a ball-control offense, so as long as Dobbins is healthy after another catastrophic injury suffered in 2023, enough opportunities will exist to make noise in fantasy. Dobbins tore an Achilles in Week 1 and missed the rest of 2023, a year after knee reconstruction cost him the ’21 campaign and much of 2022. He’s said to be well ahead of schedule and on track to be ready for the season opener. There’s weak RB2 potential here, though Dobbins is a much safer No. 3 target.
UPDATE (4/17) — RB Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers: Purely a one-dimensional back, Edwards won’t be asked to do it alone in LA — a stop where he is reunited with OC Greg Roman. The Chargers added another former Raven in J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) a month after Edwards. Running back Austin Ekeler left for Washington in free agency, so the Chargers may not be done yet as NFL draft sports some midround value. Look for Edwards and Dobbins to face competition from pass-catching type. Edwards most useful when gamers are in need of gambling on a cheap TD run.
WR Josh Reynolds, Denver Broncos: There’s a vacant starting spot with Jerry Jeudy being sent to Cleveland. Reynolds has drifted in and out of fantasy relevance over the years, playing his best ball with Jared Goff under center. Denver’s starting quarterback is unsettled, making it difficult to attribute any value to Reynolds beyond saying he could warrant a selection as roster depth. We’ll explore all things Denver offense after the NFL draft.
QB Sam Howell, Seattle Seahawks: The on-again, off-again starter from last season was dealt to Seattle where he presumably will battle incumbent Geno Smith for the primary gig, though new head coach Mike Macdonald recently clarified that Smith is the starting passer. The offensive system will be run by first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who orchestrated the Washington Huskies’ potent attack the last couple of seasons on the collegiate level. Should Howell end up in the lineup, he’s a fringe starting option in deep leagues based on the talent at his disposal, but we saw him fizzle out last year with ample weaponry after initially surging for fantasy gamers. There’s decent upside here but also a bottomless pit as a floor. We’ll monitor this one closely throughout the summer, and no one should be surprised if Seattle drafts a quarterback to further complicate this situation.
RB D’Onta Foreman, Cleveland Browns: The only way the journeyman makes a dent in fantasy is if Nick Chubb (knee) isn’t ready for Week 1, which would create an opportunity to share touches between Foreman, Jerome Ford and/or Nyheim Hines. Not ideal. We’ll monitor Chubb’s health throughout the offseason. Until more is known on that front, Foreman has no actual fantasy value.
WR Mike Williams, New York Jets: The veteran of seven NFL seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers after being a first-round selection by the franchise, Williams is coming off a torn ACL suffered in Week 3. He’ll be 30 years old in October and faces rehab schedule that should give him a chance to be available for training camp in July. The outlook is pedestrian for a guy who really never lived up to his seventh overall placement and now has to build chemistry with a different quarterback, learn a new offense, and prove he’s recovered enough to make a season-long contribution. Fantasy gamers should be cautious since Williams’ limited upside doesn’t justify gambling on a best-case-scenario WR3. He’s a much more appealing No. 4.
RB Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas Raiders: After four years of occasionally spotting Dalvin Cook with the Minnesota Vikings, Mattison re-signed in free agency to maintain continuity. He never found his stride in 2023 and eventually lost the starting job to Ty Chandler, signalling the end of his run with the Vikes. Mattison was released prior to free agency and took his time before landing with the Raiders, where he’s expected to serve as the primary backup/complement to Zamir White. The two backs utilized their opportunities in 2023 much differently, with the latter emerging as a reliable workhorse. Despite entering just his age-26 season, Mattison is only a handcuff in fantasy drafts.
WR K.J. Osborn, New England Patriots: No fantasy owner was yearning to learn when Osborn would land, and heading to Foxborough likely destroys any upside he may have had to offer. New England continues to cobble together a stable of underwhelming talent at the position, adding the former Minnesota Viking to a room with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kendrick Bourne (knee), Demario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, and Tyquan Thornton. Game-managing quarterback Jacoby Brissett was signed for a second tour of duty, and it seems all but guaranteed the Pats will draft a rookie passer in Round 1. Osborn, despite having some talent and a knack for standing tall when thrust into a greater role, could emerge as a matchup play off the wire if some breaks go his way.
QB Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers: The veteran returns for Year 13 and his third team in four seasons after what appeared to be a Hall-of-Fame trajectory has taken a nosedive. Through 15 appearances in 2023, Wilson averaged his best fantasy season since 2020, which was his finest to date, making the decline from 27.1 points to 20.6 anything but a soft landing. He turns 36 in November and shouldn’t be considered much more than a game manager. Wilson’s legs aren’t what they used to be, though he still has scored three rushing TDs in each of the last two years. Wilson reportedly was promised the starting job upon signing, which led the Steelers to trading former first-rounder Kenny Pickett to Philadelphia a few days later. Now, while he is still being called the starter, Pittsburgh acquired quarterback Justin Fields on March 16, and that will loom large going forward. Assuming Wilson — a likely game manager in this boring offensive design — can hold off Fields, he is merely a matchup play in deeper leagues.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, Detroit Lions: This one really could amount to nothing, but it’s worth considering the former Cleveland Brown could serve as an occasional fantasy flex option to cover byes or injuries if the Lions do nothing else at the position. The offense will continue to flow through Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and the backfield, but we’ve seen current free agent Josh Reynolds — a trusted friend of Jared Goff — not be re-signed to date. Don’t forget Jameson Williams enters Year 3 after soaking up the first to years between injury recovering and suspension. DPJ is a no-frills possession guy, and he’s not draftable, but there’s a decent shot he comes and goes from lineups over the course of 2024.
WR Van Jefferson, Pittsburgh Steelers: The fifth-year pro gets a chance for a career reset after falling off the map since his promising 2021 season (50-802-6). He has talent to compete for a starting job in Pittsburgh, and the quarterback situation — for all of Russell Wilson‘s faults — is an upgrade over that mess in Atlanta last year. Jefferson is healthy and could rebound following the trade of Diontae Johnson, so keep tabs on his offseason involvement. Jefferson could post sneaky WR3 stats in PPR, but no one will draft him anywhere near that high. For now, he’s merely a late-round curiosity in deep leagues.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Los Angeles Rams: It appears as if all opportunities to compete for a starting job have dried up for Garoppolo, presumably leading to him signing with LA to back up Matthew Stafford. That could be due to him facing a two-game suspension to open the year. Either way, No. 9 is no stranger to injury and freshly turned 36 years old, so it’s not farfetched to think we could see Jimmy GQ under center at some point this year. Unless that happens, he has absolutely no fantasy worth.
QB Kenny Pickett, Philadelphia Eagles: The former first-round selection won’t have to relocate far after the Pittsburgh Steelers traded him to the Eagles. He’ll serve as Jalen Hurts‘ backup, and any chance of him having draftable value is now gone. Russell Wilson‘s signing by the Steelers made Pickett expendable.
WR Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs: A smart move for the Chiefs, Brown has a chance to deliver for fantasy owners in 2024. He’ll be catching passes from the best quarterback of his career, and the sixth-year pro adds an element to the Chiefs offense that KC just hasn’t been able to replicate since trading Tyreek Hill. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling served as the primary deep threat the last couple of years but walks into free agency after catching just 51.2% of his targets in his time with the team, including several high-profile drops. Brown will be asked to stretch the field while Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice operate as more targeted, chain-moving outlets for Patrick Mahomes. Brown has battled injuries at times in his career, but he’s an intriguing depth piece in deeper leagues who will pop off on occasion.
WR Rondale Moore, Atlanta Falcons: Shortly after landing Kirk Cousins in free agency, Atlanta sunk its talons into wide receiver Darnell Mooney to bolster the receiving corps. The move was followed by trading backup quarterback Desmond Ridder to the Arizona Cardinals for Moore to add yet another depth piece. The versatile wideout hasn’t done much of anything in his career to date, so this could really amount to nothing, but he’ll have an opportunity to get on track. Even still, this doesn’t automatically translate to fantasy utility. Moore will be nothing but a final-round flier in the deepest of leagues. He’s a far more intriguing gamble in best-ball settings.
QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: Going from Kirk Cousins to the possibility of starting Darnold feels like a sucker punch to the value of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, but we fully expect Minnesota to draft a quarterback in Round 1. Darnold may be in the mix for early-season starts, but recent NFL trends suggest there’s little chance he remains in that spot for long. Teams want to know right now what they have in a rookie quarterback, especially one drafted in the first stanza. Darnold is merely a stopgap, and it’s an entirely reasonable expectation that he doesn’t see the field this year. No matter how it plays out, gamers shouldn’t be drafting Darnold, perhaps other than as a QB3 in superflex formats.
TE Gerald Everett, Chicago Bears: Cole Kmet returns, and Everett will be used sparingly, most likely as a situational pass catcher in the red zone. At this stage of his career, the journeyman isn’t a draftable fantasy commodity, but Everett still deserves an eye on the waiver wire when bye weeks and injuries force gamers into a tight spot.
TE Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals: Remember him? Once on a trajectory to be a weekly fantasy starter, Gesicki fell victim to the Mike McDaniel hiring. The coach’s system has yet to meaningfully incorporate tight ends, instead relying on vertical receivers and running backs. A one-year stint with New England saw Gesicki continue his downward trend as he shared action with Hunter Henry. The Bengals haven’t done the best job of targeting tight ends under Zac Taylor, but we saw Hayden Hurst make some noise in 2022 with Ja’Marr Chase injured. If Tee Higgins is granted his trade wish, Gesicki could vault into being a prominent piece of the offense. If not, Tyler Boyd is a free agent, which leaves the door open for Gesicki rebounding. He’s an intriguing TE2 candidate come draft season.
WR Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons: As a promising rookie in 2020 and breakout sophomore in ’21, Mooney overcame weak quarterback play to post his first 1,000-yard season on 81 catches in just his second year, scoring five total touchdowns along the way. However, the wheels came off when Chicago transitioned full time to the Justin Fields era, though much of Mooney’s regression can be pinned on injury-marred seasons and a lessened role the past two years. Regardless of where the blame lies, Mooney is healthy and gets a serious upgraded at quarterback. The fifth-year pro heads to play indoors and will catch passes from Kirk Cousins. He’ll play a specific role as a field stretcher opposite the more possession-minded Drake London. Mooney has back-end draft appeal with cheap upside for occasional utility, but this offense quickly is becoming loaded with talent, which works against stable fantasy role for the Tulane product.
RB Antonio Gibson, New England Patriots: Alex Van Pelt is the offensive coordinator in New England, bringing a balanced West Coast design with him. Even though Van Pelt wasn’t the play caller in Cleveland, he still spent time game planning for an offense with two quality backs. The one difference here is Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson are quite similar in their offerings, whereas in Van Pelt’s last stop the duo presented starkly different traits. The early feeling is this will Stevenson still dominates the backfield chores. Gibson is likely to serve on special teams and as a spell back before being a distinct threat to stealing more than roughly 35% of the RB touch share. He has handcuff worth and is a standalone RB5.
RB Devin Singletary, New York Giants: The former Buffalo Bill turned in a quality showing in Houston last year into a free-agent signing with the Giants to replace the departed Saquon Barkley. Singletary comes off his best season to date for rushing yardage (898) on a career-high 216 carries. He’s a better receiver than the stats indicate, giving him three-down utility, but Singletary is a component in a backfield and has yet to prove he can shoulder the load entering his age-27 season. The Giants have major issues along the line, at quarterback, and in the receiving corps, so expecting a better season from Singletary than what we’ve seen in his past is unwise. He’s a low-end RB3 based on utilization alone.
QB Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders: The veteran journeyman has played well in spurts and will compete for a starting job, but he’s of little consequence in traditional fantasy settings. At best, he wins the job and becomes a fringe matchup play. His peak fantasy worth probably comes in two-QB superflex lineups.
WR Gabe Davis, Jacksonville Jaguars: The writing was on the wall pertaining to Davis’ departure from Buffalo, and now we know his landing spot. The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley in free agency, and Davis entering the picture is arguably a downgrade does present downfield chops for Trevor Lawrence. Doug Pederson’s offensive design calls for clear-out routes to help free up the middle of the field, and Davis’ impact probably will be greater for the real-life Jaguars than our fantasy teams. He’s wildly inconsistent based on his natural traits, and he’ll be only a piece of Jacksonville’s puzzle.
WR Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns: Denver agreed to send the former first-round pick to the Browns in exchange for fifth- and sixth-round picks in 2024. He’ll be paired with another Alabama alum in Amari Cooper and, despite being a four-year failure in the Mile High City, Jeudy enters a favorable situation to get his career on track. Cleveland has a true No. 1 to alleviate pressure, and a viable tight end in David Njoku adds another element for defenders to account for. Deshaun Watson also rebounding is the primary concern, though Jeudy’s extensive injury history once again rearing its ugly head could negate any gains from the quarterback. Finally, this is a run-minded offense. While there’s a hint of optimism for a WR entering just his age-25 season, a pragmatic view puts him in the fantasy reserve ranks on draft day.
TE Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins: After a modest career resurrection in Atlanta last season, often outshining former first-round tight end Kyle Pitts, Smith returns to the AFC East on a two-year deal. He likely takes a step backward in fantasy production, however, as Miami’s offense simply doesn’t incorporate the position enough to make him more than a desperation play in the face of bye weeks and injuries.
TE Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders: A move that makes plenty of sense, Washington signed Ertz to a one-year deal as a replacement for the recently released Logan Thomas. While the former Philadelphia and Arizona standout is 33 years old, he’ll be more than year removed from knee reconstruction and should find comfort in the familiar confines of Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Even still, all of that totals to an occasional waiver play to cover a bye, exploit a matchup, or as an injury fill-in.
Franchise/transition tagged
WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals: Cincy placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Higgins in late February, and the team hopes to ink him to a long-term deal before that deadline passes this summer. Unless he opts to hold out or this devolves into an untenable situation resulting in a trade, Higgins will return to be a quality WR2 in fantasy most weeks, when healthy. (3/11 update: Higgins has requested a trade, so stay tuned.)
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts: There was never a doubt about whether Pittman would be franchise tagged, and that’s exactly what the Colts did to prevent him from hitting the open market. Indy’s brass will work tirelessly to sign him to a long-term deal, and there’s no reason to expect he will play anywhere else in 2024. Anthony Richardson returns to the field after an injury-shortened season, and the two combined for mixed fantasy results in the rookie quarterback’s limited action. Pittman is a WR2, at best, unless Richardson makes massive strides as a pure passer. (3/11 update: Pittman has agreed to a multiyear extension.)
Re-signed/extensions
RB Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys: The loss of Tony Pollard in free agency blew open the door for Dallas to find a starting option, and Dowdle returns on a one-year deal after a respectable 2023 showing over limited work. He isn’t likely to be gifted the No. 1 job, though he could earn it, and Dallas is poised to draft someone in the middle rounds. Free agency still has a handful of decent backs lounging about, including Ezekiel Elliott. Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis and Snoop Conner are on the roster as of this writeup, so the ‘Boys aren’t done rebuilding the backfield just yet.
WR Noah Brown, Houston Texans: A one-year, $4 million agreement will bring Brown back to Houston. He has shown flashes of NFL-caliber play both last year and in his final season with Dallas. Brown’s game transformed into becoming a deep threat in 2023, averaging 17.2 yards per catch — more than four yards greater than any other season. He played only 10 games, catching 33 of 55 targets for a personal-best 567 yards while scoring twice. Houston likely adds another receiver via the draft or free agency to compete for a top-four spot, but Brown has a legit shot to be a starter. Even still, he’s not draftable but could manage to enter lineups with a few breaks going his way.
QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A three-year deal that could earn him up to $115 million keeps Mayfield in Tampa, and the Buccaneers will try to run it back with an offense that looks extremely similar to last year’s crew. The major difference will be the loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales, whose job was filled by Liam Coen, a Sean McVay disciple. Expect a mostly similar design that should incorporate a little more play-action passing and presnap motion, but Coen’s primary stated goal is to put the ball into the hands of his strongest playmakers. Mayfield will post serviceable QB1 results many weeks and also drag down lineups with a few clunkers, so draft him as a midrange backup with that in mind.
WR Kendrick Bourne, New England Patriots: Aside from not even knowing the name of New England’s 2024 starting quarterback yet, Bourne’s outlook is further clouded as he returns from knee reconstruction. He is aiming to be back on the field as of July’s training camp and definitely intends to see Week 1 action, but it will take time to trust the knee. He suffered the injury in Week 8 and may be sluggish in the first month or so of the upcoming season. Bourne should offer his peak utility as the season wears on. Either way, expectations should be extremely low, especially if a rookie winds up starting at quarterback.
TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots: The veteran re-signing is mildly surprising after his uninspiring tenure with the Pats. Henry returns on a three-year deal worth up to $30 million, and he could be a focal point in the new offense. New play caller Alex Van Pelt’s experience doing such is sorely lacking after primarily being a game planner and play designer in previous stops, but he has been a player or coach for 27 years. Should his system look anything like past stops, relying on tight ends is in the cards, and Henry almost certainly will be catching passes from a top-three draft pick. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t get overly excited for his age-29 season as much more than a fantasy matchup play.
WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A year after being one of the best values in fantasy football, Evans was poised to hit the open market before Tampa retained his services on a two-year deal. The only real question was whether Baker Mayfield also will return to build on their obvious chemistry, and that has been resolved with the former top pick re-signing. There is one remaining concern in the loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales, but we’ve seen Evans remain a top-flight receiver through multiple system changes. The soon-to-be 31-year-old presents a WR2 floor, barring an injury.
TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans: The former Dallas Cowboy gambled on a one-year deal elsewhere in the Lone Star State, which resulted in a three-year, $36 million contract to return to Houston. He posted an eerily similar line in 2023 with the Texans (59-635-5 on 88 targets in 15 games) to his final year in Dallas (57-577-5 on 89 targets in 15 games). The Texans have a budding crop of wide receivers to work with C.J. Stroud in Year 2, and Schultz provides a reliable target for moving the chains between the 20s, but he’s not a safe consideration for weekly fantasy consistency. The veteran’s red-zone work is sporadic, and his worth is capped as a low-end TE1 in PPR.
Unsigned notables
Quarterbacks: Ryan Tannehill
Running backs: Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, Jerick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley
Wide receivers: Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Boyd, DJ Chark Jr., Mecole Hardman, Chase Claypool, Hunter Renfrow, Michael Thomas, Michael Gallup
Tight ends: Logan Thomas
