After researching all 32 teams over the past two months (you can find all 32 of my team outlooks in our fantasy football draft kit), it’s time to find some potential players with previous success that fall into the comeback category.
In my sleeper and deep sleeper articles, I wrote about Jameis Winston and Mitchell Trubisky. Both players fall into the comeback category as well.
QB Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers
After a trade to the Panthers, Mayfield falls into his best passing opportunity in his fifth year in the NFL. In his time with the Browns, his completion rate (61.6) came in well below his expected accuracy in college (68.5%) while playing in a run-first offense. With a high-volume pass-catching at his service with Carolina, he will complete more passes and make more significant plays.
DJ Moore already has an established floor in receiving yards over the past three seasons (1,175, 1,193, and 1,157), but Mayfield needs to squeeze more scoring out of him (12 career touchdowns in 63 games). Robbie Anderson helps at WR2, and Terrace Marshall has the talent to add another dimension to the Panthers’ passing attack in his sophomore season.
A healthy Christian McCaffrey is a must for Mayfield to reach starting quarterback consideration in the fantasy market. He is +1,400 at SI Sportsbook in late July. Based on his receiving talent, Mayfield should outperform his QB3 status in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. I expect him to pass for over 4,000+ yards for the first time in his career with a run at 30 touchdowns.
RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
The only thing McCaffrey needs to do to win the comeback player of the year award (+1000) is to stay healthy for at least 15 games. He is a beast in the Panthers' starting lineup, with exceptional value in yards, catches, and scoring. In the fantasy market, McCaffrey would be a stronger consideration for the first overall pick if he didn’t miss 23 games over the last two years. When your starting point is the best in the game, 10-to-1 odds seem almost too good to be true. CMC is my bet to win the award in 2022.
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RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
After a sensational rookie season (2,028 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 91 catches), Barkley failed to repeat his success due to multiple injuries over three seasons. He struggled to make plays in the run game in 2020 and 2021 (181/627/2 – 3.5 yards per carry) while struggling to get into open space in the passing game (47/323/2 – 6.9 yards per catch). In the offseason, I was hoping Barkley got traded to a top-scoring offense to give him a chance to strut his play-making ability. Unfortunately, the quarterback play is suspect with the Giants, and their offensive line has much to prove. I want to believe in Barkley in fantasy drafts, but I also want to be careful and not overpay for his current form.
Derrick Henry is the early favorite (+300) to win the Comeback Player Award. JK Dobbins is also viable. I don’t consider Travis Etienne an option due to him not posting any resume in the NFL. However, he fits into the breakout player category for me.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs
After the 2018 season (111/1,426/7), Smith-Schuster felt like a decade-long top 10 wide receiver in the NFL. The Steelers thought enough of him to throw him the ball 166 times. Surprisingly, he had been a losing investment for the past three years due to some injuries. Smith-Schuster caught 97 balls with nine scores in 2022, but his output in yards per catch (8.6) led to only 831 yards.
A move to Kansas City has to be a massive win for his overall game and expected opportunity, but Smith-Schuster must shake the injury bug. He has landed on the injury report many times over his downturn in production. The Chiefs signed him to a one-year deal ($10.75 million) that should lead to his motivation to return to elite status.
With Tyreek Hill shipped out of town and Kansas City lacking a viable lead WR1, Smith-Schuster has a steal feel in fantasy drafts with the talent to rank highly in the comeback player race.
WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
As the training camp approaches for the Saints, I’m frustrated with the path and status of Thomas’s lingering ankle issue. His last game played was December of 2020, giving him over 19 months to recover. He was the best player in the game in 2019 (149/1,725/9) while looking to be on a path to the NFL Hall of Fame. Thomas certainly has the qualities one looks for in a comeback player, but his fantasy value can’t rise until he shows his ankle is healthy on the field.
WR Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
Golladay is a player no one fights for in the early draft season. It’s almost like the mindset for many fantasy players is to avoid rostering any Giants’ wide receivers. In 2018 and 2019, he delivered two exciting seasons (70/1,063/5 and 65/1,190/9), pointing to a successful NFL career. After an injury-shortened year in 2020 (20/338/2 over five games), New York signed him to a four-year $72 million contract. Despite playing in 14 games last season, he only caught 37 passes for 521 yards with no scores on 76 targets. Golladay was limited in the early OTAs, thus lowering fantasy interest even more. I expect him to outperform his ADP (115) and ranking (54) at wideout, but his ceiling isn’t high enough to be the top comeback player in the league.
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