The summer is here, meaning we're getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn't easy, especially for players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point. In 2020, Ryan Tannehill emerged into a fantasy superstar as the starting quarterback in Tennessee. He finished seventh in fantasy points at the position while putting up career highs almost across the board. That success made him a surefire top-12 fantasy field generals in 2021 redrafts. Many fantasy folks trusted that because Tannehill was so good in his breakout campaign, he’d be just as good the following year. Unfortunately, things went a little bit sideways for the veteran signal-caller.
Even though he played in one more game, Tannehill saw declines in passing yards, touchdowns and fantasy points. His 15.8 points-a-game average was a whopping 5.7 points fewer than he averaged the previous season, and he scored 20-plus points twice during the fantasy football season. Clearly, Tannehill failed to meet expectations.
The point here is that fantasy managers trusted Tannehill too much after he broke out. That leads me to this series, aptly named “The Fantasy Case Against…” where I’ll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land seems to think is a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past seasons.
The series highlights big-name players or those coming off enormous statistical years who could see a surprising decline in fantasy success. Like I always say, the only predictable thing about the NFL is that it's often unpredictable. And as much as we love our fantasy heroes out on the gridiron, no one is ever guaranteed to succeed.
Next, let's look at Chiefs quarterback and fantasy stud Patrick Mahomes.
Fantasy Case Against: Cooper Kupp | Davante Adams | Deebo Samuel | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Diontae Johnson | Cordarrelle Patterson | Michael Thomas | James Conner | Javonte Williams | DK Metcalf | Amari Cooper | A.J. Brown | Antonio Gibson
2021 Season
Mahomes ranked fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks, throwing for 4,839 yards with 37 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. His 21.3 fantasy points per game were fourth, though it was 3.6 points per game fewer than he scored in 2020. He hit the 20-plus point mark in 11 of his 17 games, including three with 30-plus points.
Did You Know?
Mahomes was tremendous for most of last season, but he also went through one of his worst statistical slumps in the pros. In Weeks 7-9, he was 21st in fantasy points among quarterbacks with an average of just 10.7 points per game. He did bust out of the slump in a Week 10 win over the Las Vegas Raiders when he scored 36.2 points, but he fell right back into it in the next two weeks with a combined 20.1 points. All told, Mahomes threw just seven touchdown passes and was the QB18 during that five-game stretch.
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Historical Trends
Mahomes has recorded at least 4,740 yards and 37 touchdowns in three of his last four seasons. His lone statistical stumble came in 2019 when he threw for “just” 4,031 yards and 26 touchdowns in 14 games. He did suffer a dislocated kneecap in a Week 7 game and missed two starts, which was less than the initial reports had predicted. One has to wonder if he came back too soon, which might have caused his stats to fall. Still, he averaged 20.5 points a game that season and finished as the QB6 on a per-game basis.
Coaching & Personnel Changes
Head coach Andy Reid will continue to call the plays on offense, while Eric Bienemy will continue as the team's offensive coordinator. The biggest change, of course, is among the team’s wide receivers. Fantasy star Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami this past offseason, leaving a huge hole in the offense. The Chiefs signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and drafted Skyy Moore to fill the Cheetah's void, but he’s certainly a difficult offensive asset to replace (and he might be irreplaceable).
That could hurt Mahomes’ success in the stat sheets. Here are a few reasons:
In 55 career regular-season games played together where Hill saw at least 20 snaps, the stats resulting from completed passes between the duo made up around 34% of Mahomes’ total fantasy points. Additionally, completions to Hill have made up 25%-40% of Mahomes’ single-season fantasy totals since he became the starter.
Fantasy fans should also remember that Hill's absence could affect Mahomes in terms of his big pass plays (20-plus yards). Since 2018, the big-armed quarterback has had 250 such pass plays. Hill was on the receiving end of 85 of those passes. That’s 34%. By comparison, Smith-Schuster has produced 51 big pass plays in 63 career games. Valdez-Scantling, a field stretcher, has had just 34 big pass plays in 59 games.
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Verdict
Anyone who suggests that losing Hill won’t hurt Mahomes’ value at some level is either a diehard Chiefs fan or is simply kidding themselves. That doesn’t mean the half-billion man will be a bust because that's unlikely to occur. It means that he might have a tougher time making big plays downfield. Those big pass plays are a huge part of what makes Mahomes a fantasy superstar. Since 2018, only Tom Brady (251) has connected on more of those plays, and he’s played in four more games than Mahomes.
Sure, Valdez-Scantling and Moore should help to ease the void a bit. But MVS wasn’t a consistent fantasy option in Green Bay, and he had a superstar quarterback in Aaron Rodgers throwing him the football. As for Moore, he’s got a ton of talent but comes into the league lacking experience (of course). It could also take some time for him to be a consistent contributor in the Chiefs' offense. After all, he's going from Western Michigan, an NCAA Division I Football Subdivision level school, to the NFL big boys.
Despite these factors that could lead to a potential decrease in statistical success, Mahomes is still being drafted at 31.5 based on the current ADP data at Fantasy Football Calculator. And while I have him ranked third among quarterbacks behind Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, I'm simply not taking Mahomes in the top three rounds. I'd probably pass on the talented signal-caller unless he fell to me in the fifth round.
Without Hill and with question marks at receiver that include JuJu’s durability, MVS’s ho-hum totals with a legend like Rodgers, Moore’s inexperience and Mecole Hardman’s lack of production in the pros, I wouldn’t be surprised if Mahomes sees a two to three point-per-game decline in his fantasy production compared to last season (21.3 PPG).
This isn’t a buyer beware situation, but don’t be surprised if Mahomes’ totals decline.
- SI Fantasy’s 2022 Staff Predictions
- SI Fantasy Draft Kit
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- Running Back ADP Report
- Quarterback ADP Report
- Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson Ready to Make Big Leaps
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!
