The summer is here, meaning we’re getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn’t easy, however, especially in the case of players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point: In 2020, David Montgomery emerged into a fantasy superstar as the lead running back in Chicago. He finished fourth in fantasy points at the position while putting up career highs across the board. That success made him a surefire top-20 selection in most 2021 redrafts. Many fantasy folks trusted that Montgomery was so good in his breakout campaign that he'd be just as good the following year. Unfortunately, those who spent a high pick or auction bid on him found out differently.
Montgomery had a respectable season; it just wasn’t elite. His yards per carry average went from 4.3 to 3.8, and his fantasy points per game average dropped by almost three points. He would finish as the RB21, or a full 17 spots worse than his 2020 campaign.
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The point here is that fantasy managers trusted Montgomery too much after he broke out. Of course, you were warned about him if you read my "Fantasy Case Against" article on the Chicago back heading into 2021. That leads me to continue the series, where I'll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land thinks are a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past years.
Next, let's look at the Commanders third-year running back Antonio Gibson.
Fantasy Case Against: Cooper Kupp | Davante Adams | Deebo Samuel | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Diontae Johnson | Cordarrelle Patterson | Michael Thomas | James Conner | Javonte Williams | DK Metcalf | Amari Cooper | A.J. Brown
2021 Season
Gibson finished a solid 10th in fantasy points among running backs, outscoring the likes of Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, D’Andre Swift and Dalvin Cook. He posted career highs in most statistical categories, including carries, rushing yards, targets, catches, receiving yards, touches, scrimmage yards and fantasy points. Gibson did all of this despite missing one game due to injuries and losing touches to veteran J.D. McKissic.
Did You Know?
While he did finish 10th in fantasy points among running backs, Gibson ranked just 19th at the position on a points-per-game basis for runners who played in at least seven games. He was also brutally inconsistent in the stat sheets, scoring fewer than 12 PPR points seven times (44%), including six games (37.5%) where he was held to a single-digit total. To his credit, Gibson was very productive in his other nine games, scoring 18-plus points six times, including five games where he scored more than 20.
Historical Trends
Gibson’s 2020 fantasy campaign ranks seventh best among Washington running backs based on PPR scoring in the last 20 seasons. Clinton Portis (2004, 2005, 2007, 2008), Alfred Morris (2012) and Ladell Betts (2006) are the lone backs to score more points in a single season during that time. Gibson, whose 2020 campaign ranks eighth, is joined by his teammate McKissic (2020) among the team’s 10 best running back seasons. The Commanders retained McKissic, who was a free agent, on a new three-year contract.
Coaching & Personnel Changes
The Commanders will continue to be led by head coach Ron Rivera, while offensive coordinator Scott Turner is entering his third season as the team's offensive play caller. In his first two years in that role, Turner’s offense has produced a top-20 fantasy running back three times. Gibson (2020, 2021) has finished 10th and 13th in his first two years in the league, while the pass-catching McKissic ranked as the RB17 in 2020.
However, the team's backfield will be a bit more crowded this season, as Washington selected Brian Robinson with the No. 98 overall pick in the NFL draft. Rivera compared the duo of Gibson and Robinson to the one he coached in Carolina, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. That wouldn’t be a great fantasy scenario for the former. Other reports suggest Robinson could be in the mix for goal-line and short-yardage carries.
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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!
