The summer is nearly here, meaning we're getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn't easy, however, especially for players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point. In 2019, Michael Thomas went absolutely bananas for the Saints, and fantasy fans with nearly 375 fantasy points on a record 149 catches for 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns. As a result, he was the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy drafts and a surefire first-round pick. The aftermath, though, was not nearly as good.
Thomas averaged 12 fantasy points a game, down more than 11 points from the previous season, and missed nine games due to injuries. It's tough to predict a long-term ailment, of course, but Thomas wasn't nearly as productive even when he played.
The point here is that few folks saw this coming because Thomas was so good in 2019. That leads me to this series, aptly named "The Fantasy Case Against…" where I'll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land thinks are a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past seasons.
The series highlights big-name players—or those coming off enormous statistical years— who could see a surprising decline in fantasy success. Like I always say, the only predictable thing about the NFL is that it's often unpredictable. And as much as we love our fantasy heroes out on the gridiron, no one is ever guaranteed to succeed.
Next up, I'll look at Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who busted out in the second half of last season and was an absolute league winner for fantasy fans.
Fantasy Case Against: Cooper Kupp | Davante Adams | Deebo Samuel
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2021 SEASON
St. Brown was virtually non-existent in his first 11 games for the Lions, averaging fewer than seven fantasy points with no touchdowns. During that time, he saw an average of 4.7 targets per game. The talented rookie would then go on an unbelievable stretch, averaging 25.2 fantasy points in his final six games. He scored one touchdown in five of those six games, during which time he also averaged 11.2 targets in the offense.
DID YOU KNOW?
St. Brown was so good during that six-game stretch time that the only wide receiver with more fantasy points was Cooper Kupp. The USC product recorded at least 23.5 points in five of those six games, including 35.4 in fantasy championship weekend.
St. Brown was also second behind Kupp in targets, receptions, and touchdown catches, and his 583 receiving yards were the fifth-most during that time behind Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. His target share was massive, as St. Brown tied Michael Pittman Jr. for second (33%) and was behind only Jefferson (36.9%).
HISTORICAL TRENDS
St. Brown had the best rookie season of any Lions wide receiver in the Super Bowl era. His 90 catches were 36 more than the previous high set by Roy Williams in 2004. His 912 receiving yards were 95 more than Williams (817) in that same season, and his five touchdown catches were good for third among Detroit wideouts behind Williams and Titus Young (2011). Overall, St. Brown had more catches, yards and fantasy points as a rookie than any other Lions first-year wideout, even the great Calvin Johnson.
St Brown’s 2021 totals were good enough for him to finish 12th among all Lions wide receivers since 1966. The receivers ahead of him on the list are Johnson (2008, 2010-2015), Golden Tate (2014), Williams (2006), Kenny Golladay (2019), Mike Furrey (2006) and Marvin Jones Jr. (2020). St. Brown is the lone rookie in the bunch.
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COACHING & PERSONNEL CHANGES
Dan Campbell will enter his second year as the Lions' head coach, and Ben Johnson will take over as the full-time offensive coordinator. He was the Lions' tight ends coach last season before being elevated to the team’s pass-game coordinator in the second half, but Campbell took over the play-calling duties. During that time, the Lions improved from 29th to 15th in yards per contest and from 28th to 17th in total scoring offense.
The major change to the Lions' personnel is on the players' side, which could (and likely will) affect St. Brown’s target share. He will have to compete with T.J. Hockenson, who averaged seven targets last year, and also DJ Chark and rookie Jameson Williams.
Chark averaged 7.5 targets per game in his two best seasons with the Jaguars. The Lions also moved up in the 2022 NFL Draft to acquire Williams. Whether or not he is ready for the start of the season coming off knee surgery remains to be seen, but Williams will be back on the gridiron at some point and will undoubtedly be a big part of the offense. The team also has Josh Reynolds and Quintez Cephus on the depth chart at wideout.
VERDICT
St. Brown’s late-season surge was sparked by his skill set, a nice connection with Jared Goff, and more importantly, an increase in opportunities. In 11 games with Hockenson active, St. Brown averaged 9.6 fantasy points. In the five games without him, that total swelled to 25.2. He also saw a serious spike in points when D’Andre Swift missed time (22.4 PPG), but St. Brown was far less productive with Swift (11.8 PPG) out.
What’s more, Hockenson was limited to two games due to injuries and saw 11 targets in St. Brown’s six-week breakout, while Swift saw 11 targets in only three games. As a result, St. Brown saw a ridiculous 31.1% target share. Josh Reynolds was the second-most targeted Lions wideout and had a 14.5% share (less than half of St. Brown).
Not only will the Lions have both Swift and Hockenson back at 100 percent this season, but the team now has Chark and (eventually) Williams in the passing attack. Fantasy fans should remember that Swift is one of the league’s best pass-catching backs, as he was targeted six times per game on average a season ago. It might seem odd because it's the Lions, but this offense has many mouths to feed (or kneecaps to bite).
Also, remember that St. Brown needed a high level of volume to shine late last season because he wasn't exactly a star regarding his average yards per catch. He ranked 56th among wide receivers (10.1) with at least 40 catches in that category. That total drops to 9.4 yards per reception in the 11 games he played before the trio of Hockenson, Swift and Cephus were all forced to miss games due to various injuries.
The bottom line on St. Brown is simple. He’s a good wideout who had a bananas six-week stretch fueled by volume due to injuries and a quarterback with tunnel vision. With all of the Lions' weapons back, including a few new ones, the opportunities won't be there for St. Brown on such a consistent basis this season. That doesn’t mean you should avoid him in drafts, but I don’t see him as a top-50 pick. Instead, I’d target St. Brown as a No. 3 fantasy wideout at some point in the sixth or seventh round.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!
