The fantasy playoffs start this week for many leagues. If you were fortunate enough to make it, congratulations are in order.
The Kansas City Chiefs will have the usual suspects to put in your lineup and could also have a couple of sleepers. Although the Houston Texans have just one win on the season, they could have a couple of sleepers as well. Let’s see who the best plays from this matchup are.
*Projections from our colleagues at The Huddle
QB Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes got back to his usual stat line last week with 352 yards and three touchdowns last week, but also uncharacteristically threw three interceptions. No matter how many interceptions he throws he’ll typically have enough yardage and TDs to make up for it, but I wouldn’t expect it to continue to be a problem.
This week Mahomes faces a Texans’ secondary that is actually pretty solid, but it may be missing both starting cornerbacks in Steven Nelson and Derek Stingley Jr., which could cause some problems. Regardless, Mahomes is matchup-proof and should still be a top-five QB this week.
RBs Isiah Pacheco/Jerick McKinnon
Owners of Pacheco and McKinnon should be salivating at their matchup with the last ranked run defense of the Texans this week. Houston is giving up 165.8 rushing yards per game and nearly five yards per carry. Pacheco is averaging 16 carries per game over the past five weeks and should get a nice workload if the Chiefs jump out to an early lead.
McKinnon has had a steady role in the Chiefs’ passing game this season, ranking fourth on the team in receptions and tied for second in touchdown receptions. He’s a bit hit-or-miss as a rusher but is averaging 4.9 yards per carry over his last four games. Given his matchup this week and his consistency in the passing game, McKinnon is a solid RB2 this week.
WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster/Mecole Hardman/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Kadarius Toney
Smith-Schuster got back into a groove with Mahomes last week, catching nine passes and finding the endzone for the first time since Week 7. The Chiefs could be run-heavy in this game, but this is an Andy Reid offense. I’d say Smith-Schuster is a WR3 with WR2 upside.
Despite Mahomes airing it out 42 times last week, Valdes-Scantling caught just one pass. Even though he’s a deep threat, Valdes-Scantling struggles with drops and is a non-factor when it comes to getting into the endzone. He shouldn’t be in any lineups this week.
Toney has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury and is questionable for this game. It seems pretty iffy that he’ll play considering he didn’t log a full practice this week. If he does play, he’ll likely be on a pitch count, making him too risky to be in your lineup.
Hardman is expected to be out this for this game, but the good news is that he practiced all week and seems to be on track to play next week against the Seattle Seahawks. He’s worth a roster stash for the final few weeks of the season.
TE Travis Kelce
It’s slightly eyebrow-raising that Kelce has only logged four receptions in each of his last three games. In his defense, he has faced some really good secondaries during that stretch. The middle of the Texans’ defense is soft and Kelce is still the best tight end in the league. He could get back to putting up big numbers this week.
Chiefs' defense/special teams
The Chiefs’ defense looked like it was in for a huge day early on in last week’s game against Denver, but the Broncos made a furious and surprising comeback. The K.C. defense still managed six sacks, two turnovers, and a touchdown and has forced six turnovers in its last four games.
The Texans have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and will be down a couple of their best players, making the Chiefs’ defense one of the better starts of the week.
K Harrison Butker
Butker is 10-for-11 over his last four games with his only miss being from a long distance of 55 yards. The Chiefs should put up a fair number of points against Houston and have a weak Seattle defense next week, setting Butker up nicely for the next couple of games.
QBs Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel
It appears the Texans are going with the college-like two QB system. Mills will play more snaps than Driskel and be the primary passer, while Driskel will run the ball a bit and throw a few passes.
Mills has been disappointing this season, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. He shouldn’t be rostered on any fantasy teams. Either should Driskel, who will likely only play somewhere between 10-15 snaps.
RBs Rex Burkhead/Dare Ogunbowale
It’s tough to say who will lead the Hoston backfield with starter Dameon Pierce out. Burkhead is the proven veteran, but Ogunbowale played 18 snaps last week to Burkhead’s five.
It’s possible that they split the workload relatively evenly, but at the end of the day it doesn’t really matter. Neither back has been productive this season nor shown very much upside and shouldn’t be rostered. If you play DFS and are feeling risky I would go with Ogunbowale.
WRs Chris Moore/Phillip Dorsett
The Texans are thin at receiver this week. They’ll be without their top two options, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, for the second straight week. Chris Moore played well in their absences last week, catching 10 passes for 124 yards on 11 targets. He could be a sneaky good flex play this week against a shaky Chiefs’ secondary.
Dorsett is a speedy veteran. Despite being a starter last week he only managed two receptions and he is averaging just one catch per game over the last five weeks. He’s always a threat for a deep ball, but Dorsett is definitely not fantasy relevant this season.
TE Jordan Akins
Akins has been very hit-or-miss this season and has been quiet the last two weeks. Backup Teagan Quitoriano logged more snaps than Akins last week, perhaps showing that the coaching staff is wanting to get a look at some other options. Even at such a shallow position, Akins shouldn’t be in any lineups.
Texans' defense/special teams
The Texans’ defense put up a valiant effort against the Dallas Cowboys last week but couldn’t hold it together in the end. Houston has the last-ranked rushing defense in the league and is 29th overall. It will also be down both starting cornerbacks in Steven Nelson and Derek Stingley Jr. The Texans’ defense shouldn’t be rostered.
K Ka'imi Fairbairn
Fairbairn has quietly been one of the better kickers in the NFL this season, connecting on 24-of-26 attempts. He had a big game last week as he hit all three of his field goal opportunities, two of which were from 50 yards or further.
The Texans have the third-worst scoring offense, making Fairbairn a risky play, but there’s a degree of safety with him considering how accurate he is. If you’re thin on options he’s a solid play.
