The Six Nations is not just about the rugby. For some the pilgrimages to Europe’s great capitals alongside old friends are the biggest draw, with the match itself a mere bonus. For others it is just as special in their local pub or at home with their extended family. It is this annual wave of communal joy that distinguishes the championship from all the other televisual wallpaper out there.
Every now and again, though, the planets align and the quality of the actual games overtakes all else. This year could be one of those classic examples. Consider the runners and riders. Weather permitting, France, Ireland, Scotland and England are all hoping to pose a sharper attacking threat than 12 months ago with Wales, as defending champions, unlikely to retreat into their shells either.
A tournament for the ages, consequently, is a possibility. France have their deepest, most exciting squad in years. Ireland have also just come off an autumn triumph over New Zealand and have some impressive new talent. Scotland, it is generally agreed, have not been better placed in the professional era. England are short of some familiar names but retain mighty ambitions. And last season Wales registered more tries than they have ever scored in a Six Nations campaign. Even Italy are perking up at age-group level, with happier days hopefully ahead.
Hence why the 2022 Six Nations is the subject of even greater anticipation than usual. Memories of last year’s fizzing edition remain fresh and, unlike 12 months ago, supporters are back to reboot the tournament’s soul. Even more crucially, the game is changing, with less emphasis on attrition and more on proactive intent. Ruck speed is now the buzz tactical phrase on everyone’s lips.
With referees likely to be hotter than ever on teams looking to slow the ball down illegally, it explains why every side has been recalibrating their approach. There was a time, for example, when Ireland simply preferred vice-like efficiency, squeezing and pressurising their opponents and giving them nothing. Increasingly – and credit to Andy Farrell for encouraging it – they want to up the tempo and create more themselves. If Leinster are any guide, they will also be fit enough to make it happen.
Will it be Johnny Sexton’s last stand? You suspect the 36-year-old will be desperate to make it count either way. The evocative documentary about Ireland’s great out-halves which aired on Sunday night was a timely reminder of the fine traditions of the green No 10 shirt, from Jackie Kyle and Ollie Campbell to Tony Ward and Ronan O’Gara, and Sexton’s desire still runs as deep as any of them. Along with the most seasoned tactician, the Irish also have the best scrum in the competition. They still, even so, have to go to Paris and London and win. Tick those boxes and a grand slam would surely follow.
Slightly more likely is a see-sawing scramble and a three-way title race entering the final straight. Luck will play some part but so will old-fashioned endeavour. Yes, Wales scored plenty of tries but despite finishing bottom of the class for metres made, carries and defenders beaten they still became champions courtesy of a solid scrum and lineout and making more tackles than anyone else.
Which is why, above and beyond the specific names on the team sheet, this season’s winners will be the team able to strike the best balance between ambition and the accuracy of their basics. There is now an even greater onus on teams to threaten off first phase and no shortage of magicians – Finn Russell, Marcus Smith, Romain Ntamack – to conjure something gloriously unexpected.
Remember Ntamack’s break out from behind his own line against the All Blacks in the autumn? Expect more of it, because teams are realising that striking hard and fast against flat-footed opponents can yield more reward than plodding through 25-plus phases. The 50:22 rule also helps and getting held up over the try line also no longer means an attacking five-metre scrum. It makes smart cross-kicks or quick-witted taps ever more valuable.
In that regard, France have the best scrum-half in the world and some of the most lethal finishers. All that is now stopping Les Bleus from becoming an absolute global powerhouse is themselves: inner confidence is very often the difference between a decent side and a great one. Between them, though, Shaun Edwards, Raphaël Ibañez and Fabien Galthié know what a winning culture looks like. France will finish in the top two at least.
Poor old injury-hit England? In the end it is less about who plays as how they play. When he axed several of his Saracens stalwarts, Eddie Jones was not only distancing himself from them as individuals but as a collective philosophy. Now the aim is to take the game to the opposition more urgently, with attack coach Martin Gleeson having made a visible difference. If Smith is going to start at 10 – and he surely must – it makes sense to embrace some of Harlequins’ joie de vivre as well.
Then again, when did any Six Nations ever unfold precisely to order? It is relatively easy, for instance, to imagine Scotland reaching the last weekend unbeaten, only to fall agonisingly short in Dublin. Ireland’s title prospects would then hinge on the grand finale in Paris between France and England and, potentially, a narrow points difference calculation. Super Saturday? Brace yourself for a succession of them.
