In his final push to make his case to the Bears, or perhaps a team that would be interested in trading for him, quarterback Justin Fields will face two opponents deeply intertwined with his football career.
First, he’ll take on his childhood team, the Falcons, at Soldier Field on Sunday. Then he closes the regular season with a trip to Lambeau Field to face the Packers, against whom he is 0-5.
Fields was a bit too young to follow Falcons great Michael Vick, but he’s heard the stories and seen the YouTube clips. He grew up with the quarterback-receiver duo of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, who frequently power the Falcons to one of the better offenses in the NFL.
This version of the Falcons looks quite different as they languish at quarterback and struggle to take advantage of a defense that has given up the sixth-fewest points in the NFL.
“They’re strong at every level,” coach Matt Eberflus said.
That makes them an ideal opponent for Fields, though.
Part of what Fields, or any young quarterback, must prove is that he can produce against top defenses. And this season, he has lit up the bad ones and sputtered against good ones.
His best games — back-to-back performances in which he totaled 617 yards passing and threw for eight touchdowns — came against the Broncos (29th in points allowed and opponent passer rating) and Commanders (32nd in both).
In his five starts against teams in the top half of the NFL in scoring defense, Fields completed 57.2% of his passes, averaged 150.2 yards passing and posted a 67.6 passer rating. Removing the two interceptions he threw on Hail Mary passes against the Browns in Week 15, his rating is still just 73.7 in those games.
Equally importantly, the Bears averaged 13.8 points and went 1-4.
Against teams in the bottom half in points allowed, he has a 97.1 passer rating — nearly matching MVP candidate Lamar Jackson’s number for the season as a whole. In those six starts, Fields completed 63.6% of his passes, threw for 232.5 yards per game and led the Bears to an average of 28.2 points. They went 3-3.
The Falcons will challenge him, just as they did last season in a 27-24 win in Atlanta. That game drove home the importance of Fields needing to rely on his passing ability more so than running. He threw for just 153 yards, but kept the Bears in it with 85 yards and a touchdown on the ground. But in the process, Fields suffered a dislocated left shoulder and threw a game-sealing interception.
The Falcons are much better defensively this season. As part of their leap from 25th to sixth in points allowed, they have allowed the eighth-fewest yards passing per game (197.5, near Fields’ average) and eighth-lowest completion percentage (60.9%, exactly what Fields has done). They’re also No. 3 on third downs, allowing conversions on 33.7% of plays.
The Falcons don’t do anything amazing; they’re in the bottom third of the NFL in sacks and interceptions. They’re simply solid. They pressure the quarterback on 22.9% of drop backs, 10th in the NFL, and a good secondary led by cornerback A.J. Terrell, a former first-round pick, and veteran safety Jessie Bates, who is second in the NFL with six interceptions.
They’re also very good against the run, ranking eighth in yards per carry allowed at 3.9, and that would theoretically negate the Bears’ offensive strength. That means not only are the Falcons a great test for Fields, there’s also little chance the Bears will beat them unless he passes it.
