Germany is entering its final week of campaigning ahead of nationwide elections on 23 February amid economic turmoil, political uncertainty, and growing concerns over its place in the global order.
Once the economic powerhouse of Europe, Germany now finds itself struggling with stagnation, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and an identity crisis fuelled by external pressures and internal discord.
With the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and deepening rifts over the Ukraine war, the upcoming election will be one of the most consequential in modern German history.
Economic decline
For years, Germany thrived on an economic model based on cheap Russian gas and booming exports to China.
That model is now broken. Skyrocketing energy costs, increased competition from China, and sluggish technological adaptation have left the country struggling for growth.
Germany’s economy has contracted in each of the last two years, and by the end of 2024, it will have grown just 0.3 percent since 2019.
In contrast, the US and China have seen their economies expand by over 11 percent and almost 26 percent, respectively.
Manufacturing giants are shifting investments abroad, citing excessive bureaucracy and uncompetitive energy prices.
Industrial leaders warn that deindustrialisation is already underway, with firms moving production to Asia and the US to escape soaring electricity costs.
Even with the shift toward green and digital technology, progress remains slow.
Business leaders are calling for reforms to reduce bureaucratic red tape and create a more business-friendly environment.
But whether the next government will have the political will to implement these changes remains uncertain.
France, Germany reject US interference after Vance urges Europe to accept far right
The rise of the Far Right
Amid economic anxiety and growing frustration with mainstream parties, the far-right AfD is experiencing unprecedented support.
Polling at around 20 percent, the party is on track to achieve its highest-ever election result.
AfD leaders have capitalised on fears over migration, economic decline, and what they call the “weakness” of Germany’s traditional parties.
The debate took an international turn last week when US Vice President JD Vance controversially called on Germany to drop its historic aversion to working with the far right.
His remarks sparked mass protests in Berlin and a fiery TV debate between candidates.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz – currently leading in the polls – firmly rejected American interference, saying, “I will not allow an American vice president to tell me who I can talk to here in Germany”.
The AfD, however, welcomed Vance’s remarks.
Leader Alice Weidel declared that Germany must not isolate millions of voters, reinforcing the party’s push for legitimacy within mainstream politics.
With a deeply divided electorate, the possibility of coalition negotiations involving the AfD is no longer unthinkable – a shocking development in German politics.
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The Ukraine war and Transatlantic tension
Germany’s economic struggles and political battles are unfolding against the backdrop of increasing tensions with Washington over the Ukraine war.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has insisted that Europe must be involved in any security talks regarding Ukraine, pushing back against US President Donald Trump’s decision to engage in direct discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Scholz’s warnings come amid growing concerns in Europe about US commitment to NATO and European security.
Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has stated that while Europe may provide “input”, it will not be a direct participant in negotiations.
Scholz, however, remains firm: “No decisions will be made over Kyiv’s head – Europe will not allow that”.
Germany’s energy crisis has been exacerbated by its staunch support for Ukraine.
The decision to cut ties with Russian gas has led to energy prices more than doubling, further strangling industries already struggling to compete on a global scale.
Some analysts argue that Germany’s economic woes are partially self-inflicted, as leaders failed to anticipate the long-term economic consequences of their geopolitical stance.
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A nation at a crossroads
With just days to go before the election, Germany faces a moment of reckoning.
Voters are caught between economic hardship, political polarisation, and an uncertain geopolitical future.
The next government will need to address Germany’s industrial decline, redefine its approach to international alliances, and navigate the growing influence of the far right in domestic politics.
For decades, Germany has prided itself on stability and consensus-driven politics.
But this election signals a break from tradition. The country that once set the economic standard for Europe now finds itself struggling to find its place.
