Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s recent remarks that there was a feeling France was being "flooded" by foreigners outraged the left, but were welcomed by conservatives and the far right. While research shows there is no migrant "flood", perceptions are another matter. But what story do the figures tell?
"Foreign contributions are a positive for a people, so long as they remain proportionate," Bayrou said in a television interview in late January. "But as soon as you get the feeling of being flooded, of no longer recognising your own country, its lifestyle and its culture, there is a rejection." He added that France was "approaching" this threshold.
With his use of the word "flood" Bayrou employed terms more commonly used by the anti-immigration far-right National Rally (RN) – now the largest single party in parliament.
French PM in hot water over migrant 'flooding' gaffe
The RN, formerly known as the National Front, has long maintained that such a migrant "flood" (soumission migratoire) is a reality in France. This echoes the notion of the "great replacement" – a term coined by author Renaud Camus, which claims that immigrants, and those from Africa in particular, will gradually replace Europe's white, Christian populations.
Official data from France's national statistics agency (Insee) does not support such a claim. In 2023, immigrants accounted for 7.3 million of France's population of 68 million – or 10.7 percent. In 1975, they made up 7.4 percent.
The proportion of foreigners rose from 6.5 percent to 8.2 percent in the same 50-year period. Around 3.5 percent are from the European Union and the rest from non-EU countries. An estimated 0.25 percent entered the country illegally.
"If you look at the numbers, it's hard to say that there is an overwhelming crowd of foreigners," says Tania Racho, a researcher on European law, who also works for an NGO fighting disinformation on migration issues.
There has been a steady progression in the proportion of foreigners, she says, with an increase of "about 2 percent in the past 10 to 15 years," while the annual number of new arrivals to France – 300,000 – has remained fairly stable.
This increase reflects a global trend, and several other countries have higher proportions of foreign residents than France, says Racho – 16 percent of Sweden's population are foreigners, and in Germany the figure is 15 percent. The United States, United Kingdom and Turkey also have a higher percentage of foreign residents than France.
Meanwhile, demographer François Heran's research has found the increase in France was largely thanks to economic and student migration, and that family reunification had declined.
Listen to our conversation with Tania Racho on the Spotlight on France podcast, episode 124.
A post-truth society
However, Racho points out, the debate is not necessarily rooted in figures. "It’s not about the numbers really, it’s about the feeling of considering there are a lot of foreigners in France. And it's more complicated on a scientific level to measure a feeling."
Research shows the French tend to overestimate the number of foreigners in the country – putting the number at 23 percent rather than the real figure of 8.2 percent.
"We're in a changing world, where scientific reality is no longer the foundation of political decisions," the researcher says. "It's true in the US and unfortunately, it's also coming in France."
She cites an example from France’s interior minister Bruno Retailleau. When recently questioned about the claim by CEPII, a public institute for research in global economics, that "studies were unanimous in concluding immigration had no impact on delinquency" the minister replied: "Reality belies this study."
Economic research on migration issues is clearly struggling to be heard, said Racho.
French Senate backs bill to stop undocumented immigrants from getting married
An online poll for French TV channel BFMTV in the wake of Bayrou's remarks, which surveyed 1,005 people, found that nearly two out of three French people (64 percent) thought he was right to refer to a "feeling of a migrant flood". But broader, more in-depth surveys paint a more nuanced picture.
The recently published long-term European Social Survey 2023-2024 – which spoke to 40,000 people in 31 countries – on attitudes towards immigration found that 69 percent of French people do not have a sense of migratory flooding and agreed that "many or some immigrants from a different ethnic group [than the majority] should be allowed to come and live in the country".
Another study by Destin Commun, the French branch of the UK's More in Common think tank, found that around 60 percent of French people said they had no opinion on migration whereas 20 percent thought it was linked to national identity.
"The truth is those 20 percent speak out more," Racho notes. "They are more [active] on social networks, there's more media coverage of the people that have a strong opinion on the question, [rather than] the 60 percent that don't."
Debating identity
Bayrou has called for a national debate not just on migration, but on what it means to be French. "What's been fermenting for years is [the question], what does it mean to be French?" he told broadcaster RMC. "What rights does it give you? What duties does it demand of you? What advantages do you get? What do you commit to when you become a member of a national community?"
"It could be useful on some level to be sure that the reality of migration is better known," Racho said. "It could be interesting to have a real, deep debate if it's possible. It really depends on the way it's treated."
PM Bayrou calls for national debate on immigration after controversial 'flooding' comments
A previous debate on national identity, launched in 2009 under former right-wing president Nicolas Sarkozy, saw some 350 public debates held over three months, from which no concrete measures emerged.
Bayrou opposed the initiative at the time, saying: "Nothing is worse than turning identity into a subject of political confrontation and partisan use... The nation belongs to everyone."
