CLAIM: “The SNP has done catastrophic damage to the Scottish NHS” – Labour MP John Grady at PMQs, December 18 2024
DOORSTEP ANSWER: The SNP Government avoided the strike action that crippled the English NHS. The problems in the NHS, north and south of the Border, are due to decades of underfunding by Westminster.
WHO IS JOHN GRADY?
John Grady was elected Labour MP for Glasgow East in July 2024, defeating the SNP’s David Linden. A lawyer, he was a partner at Shepherd and Wedderburn, a legal practice that specialises in representing big energy companies. Grady also worked as a solicitor for ScottishPower, the Spanish-owned electricity generator which in 2020 was awarded The Observer newspaper’s award for “worst customer service”.
Grady likes to tout his corporate experience rather than any working-class links. While defending the Labour Budget, he told Parliament: “Like many on the Government Benches, I have spent many years of my career in business … I have worked with some of the largest companies investing in the United Kingdom …”
During his election campaign, Grady was photographed supporting the Waspi Women’s campaign for pension justice, but has been silent over Labour’s decision to renege on granting them compensation.
GRADY’S CLAIM ON WAITING LISTS
At PMQs, John Grady made the following specific claim: “Recent data shows that almost 11,000 Scots have been waiting more than two years for hospital treatment since their referral. The equivalent number in England is around 113. Does the Prime Minister agree that that shows the catastrophic damage the SNP Government have done to the Scottish NHS?”
If true, this might be evidence of a “catastrophe” in the management of the Scottish NHS. However, Grady is comparing figures compiled on a very different basis. The waiting list figure for Scotland which he quotes comes from data compiled by Public Health Scotland. This includes both those waiting to be seen for an appointment or admitted for treatment in-hospital or as an outpatient. It also double-counts the same patient if they are seeking multiple treatments.
Grady compares this larger, inclusive Scottish waiting time category with a narrower English statistic, the so-called Referral to Treatment (RTT) figure. This narrower category monitors the length of time from referral to a consultant through to first elective treatment. This explains the seeming gross misalignment in the Scottish and English data.
But there are other difficulties in cross-comparing the Scottish and (inadequate) English data. According to the British Medical Association (BMA), the English waiting list calculation (the RTT) contains a growing "hidden backlog". "… the referral to treatment waiting list does not include waiting for non-consultant-led treatment, or patients waiting for follow up appointments once they have begun treatment. Therefore, the number of patients included in the headline waiting list figures does not show the full extent of the backlog.
WAITING LISTS IN SCOTLAND
What can we say about waiting times in Scotland? According to the latest data from Public Health Scotland, for the quarter ending September 2024, total waiting list size has increased more than two-fold (+312,193) since 31 March 2020, shortly after the onset of the pandemic. But the experience in England is much the same. The NHS waiting list in England has almost tripled in size over the last decade.
The pandemic was characterised by the deliberate prioritisation to treat those with Covid and led to many people deciding not to seek medical attention for other ailments. Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of these decisions, it was inevitable that – post Covid – there would be a surge in demand for treatment and so in waiting times. It is this surge in demand that is causing strains in NHS delivery.
Worse, this immediate crisis came after what most professions recognise as a decade of underinvestment in the NHS by the Tory government, including a failure to address the longstanding neglect of social care. The pandemic only heaped further pressure on an already stressed system – waiting lists were already growing long before Covid.
It is true that this year, waiting lists have increased slightly in Scotland. As of September 30, in comparison to the previous quarter, there were 62,595 (+3913) waits that had been ongoing over 52 weeks, 15,076 (+2686) waits over 78 weeks and 3712 (+1688) over 104 weeks. This, again, seems to reflect pressure of demand and inadequacy of resources.
WAITING LISTS IN ENGLAND
NHS staff numbers in England have increased, with doctor numbers up 25% and nurses up 25% in the five years to July 2024. Yet the median waiting time for treatment in England is 14.2 weeks – nearly double the pre-Covid median wait of 7.6 weeks. As in Scotland, the central issue is the excess of demand. But this was exacerbated in the case of England by the Tory government’s failure to meet pay demands in the NHS, which led to strikes and major disruption in the service. Here, if anywhere, we can identify a “catastrophe” resulting from political decision-making. But this catastrophe lies at Westminster rather than Holyrood, where the SNP Government artfully avoided provoking strike action in the NHS.
HAS LABOUR’S BUDGET HELPED?
Probably not. The Chancellor announced major increases in spending for the NHS, particularly an 11% increase in the capital allowance for this and next year. However, according to the Nuffield Trust, a respected independent think tank, the extra cash for NHS revenue spending is still below the annual growth in costs. The Nuffield Trust worries that this will lead to more cash being shifted from public health prevention to shore up day-to-day NHS spending, as has happened over the past few decades. But this only adds to the sort of demand pressures that are afflict the NHS, north and south of the Border.
CONCLUSION
Mr Grady has a track record of quoting erroneous statistics. On November 5, Mr Grady said in Parliament: “Glasgow has the shortest life expectancy in Scotland and in western Europe.” This is untrue. For example, the latest Office for National Statistics data shows that Blackpool has a shorter male average life expectancy (73.1 years) than Glasgow (73.6 years).
FACT CHECK RATING: John Grady’s way with numbers is so unreliable that we have decided it is a waste of time giving him one.
