With the French being chased out of Niger and Mali and Russian and Chinese influence growing, the European Union is struggling to maintain its presence on the African continent. Experts say that Brussels must rewrite its Africa policy if it wants to hold on to its clout.
Over the past 10 years, Chinese development funds have played an "absolutely essential role" in helping a number of African countries close the gaping infrastructure gap, says Eric Olander, editor of the China-Global South Project (CGSP), which tracks Chinese investment in Africa and other developing parts of the world.
China and its multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative loans were often the only option for African countries, Olander says, as multilateral funders like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund turned off the tap or attached conditions that African governments were unwilling to meet, such as making improvements in human rights or governance.
Over recent years, China too scaled back its loans after growing economic problems at home.
But, says Olander, the Chinese "are going to come back in a very different way than they did in the past: rather than a concessional or a commercial loan, you're going to see more public-private partnerships, more creative financing that doesn't cause more debt distress on the borrowing country and also de-risks the loan from the point of view of the Chinese".
Playing on resentments
Meanwhile, the EU seems to be losing ground in Africa.
Leading member France, which has strong roots in Africa due to its colonial past, sees its position weakening with the forced departure of French troops and diplomatic personnel from West African countries including Mali and Niger.
"The resentment against Europeans and Americans in the West, not only for colonialism but for the hypocrisy of the 'rules-based order', runs very, very deep, not just in Africa but across the global South," according to Olander.
"And the Chinese are very effective at playing on those resentments. At UN votes, the Chinese are on the side of the global South. Chinese propaganda says: 'unlike those who colonised you, we do not'. And they really emphasise that. So that's a card that's being played," he says.
EU 'spread too thin'
Concerned by the growing influence of China in Africa, several other countries quickly launched competing infrastructure initiatives – including Japan's Free and Open Indo Pacific initiative, the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, a joint project by India and Japan, Washington's Build Back Better World partnership and the EU's Global Gateway.
The Global Gateway was launched in December 2021 and "aims at mobilising investments of up to 300 billion euros between 2021 and 2027", according to the EU Commission.
But Olander says the scheme lacks vision and strategy.
"We know from internal European Commission documents that the Global Gateway is spread too thin," he says.
Preoccupied by immigration
Investment isn't the only area where the EU needs to adjust its approach, according to Olander.
Europe's Africa policy has become dominated by its stance on immigration. The EU's current strategy, increasingly in line with demands from the hard right, seems to be aimed at making deals with countries such as Tunisia and Egypt to keep immigrants on the African side of the Mediterranean.
"The key question is: what is going to keep people from leaving their homes to come to Europe?" says Olander.
The answer, he believes, is economic development, jobs and measures to mitigate climate change, with a focus on young people in particular.
"European policymaking in Africa should be anchored in two things: youth and employment."
REMARK: Eric Olander, editor of The China-Global South Project
"This will help to mitigate some of the immigration pressures, and at the same time, that is precisely the agenda of most democratically elected African leaders," he argues.
As for the tug of war between China and the EU's close ally, the US, Olander believes Europe should try and stay out of it.
"That's just not Europe's fight to win," he says. "There's no upside for them to get sucked into this."
