In the world of fantasy football prognostication, we all have wins and losses. We plant our flags and spout out stats and trends that support our thoughts, with confidence (and hope) that what we’ve all studied and researched comes to fruition. Sometimes we knock it out of the park, and other times we strike out worse than the Mighty Casey in Mudville.
In the interest of holding myself accountable, I looked back at some of the picks I made this season and compiled a list of what I got right and wrong (and why). Much like you, I’m constantly absorbing information and learning lessons from one season to the next. Here’s some of the biggest lessons I learned from what was a tough 2024 campaign.
Fabs Five Biggest Fantasy Hits
Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders: I loved Daniels coming out of LSU and compared him to Robert Griffin III in terms of the stats I thought he could achieve as a rookie. Well, Daniels averaged 20.9 fantasy points while Griffin III averaged 21.2 points back in 2012. That pick did work out well, as Daniels became one of only five rookie quarterbacks to ever record 300-plus fantasy points (one of the others is Bo Nix … didn’t have that on my bingo card!).
Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers: Jacobs was coming off a bad season in Las Vegas, and for some reason a lot of fantasy analysts were down on him after he signed with the Packers. I wasn’t one of them. After a slow start, he went on to finish sixth in fantasy points among running backs. He was especially great down the stretch, ranking third in points at the position from Week 10-17, during which time he averaged 21.6 points. Jacobs was a nice win for me.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks: The Seahawks wide receiver room was crowded at the start of the season, led by DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. However, I suggested that JSN would move ahead of Lockett and push Metcalf as the best fantasy receiver in Seattle. Not only did he push Metcalf, but he surpassed him and scored 61.8 more fantasy points than his veteran teammate. Smith-Njigba finished among the top 10 fantasy wide receivers, and he was very consistent for most of the season half of the NFL campaign.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers: “Laddy Daddy,” as I like to call him, was one of my top sleepers of the 2024 season. He landed in a great spot as a rookie, as the Chargers had all but wiped out their receiver room with Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams no longer in the mix. While he did have a slow start, McConkey finished strong with 14-plus points in each of his last seven games. He also averaged 19 points in his final six games of the fantasy season, including 20.3 points during the ever-important fantasy playoffs.
Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals: I predicted back in the preseason that McBride would be the No. 1 tight end in fantasy football. I was close, as he finished second in total points scored behind Brock Bowers and second in points per game behind George Kittle. McBride was also second at the position in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Had he scored more than just two touchdowns, McBride would have easily made my prediction come true.
Back to Bowers, that’s another lesson I learned … we can no longer look past rookie tight ends as potential breakout players. While that sort of thing was rare in the past, we’ve seen two rookies (Sam LaPorta, Bowers) finish first in points at tight end in the last two years.
Fabs Five Biggest Fantasy Misses
Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts: I love mobile quarterbacks, and I loved what I saw from Richardson as a rookie despite it being a very small sample size (four games). He went on to average fewer than 15 fantasy points in his 11 starts this season, and he lost the starting job at one point to 39-year-old backup Joe Flacco. Richardson’s biggest flaw was put on display, as he threw 12 interceptions with a 61.6 percent completion percentage. AR was also one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in terms of on-target pass percentage.
The lesson learned here is that despite his rushing success, a quarterback (Richardson in this case) can’t overcome being a subpar passer who is prone to turning the ball over.
Travis Etienne, Jr., RB, Jaguars: Many fantasy analysts whiffed on Etienne Jr., as he was the seventh-best fantasy running back based on ADP data on the NFFC website. That was after he finished third in points among backs in 2023, scoring 282.4 points. Unfortunately, he went on to rank 35th in points at the position this season and lost touches to Tank Bigsby. Unsurprisingly, I missed the playoffs in the two leagues where I drafted him in the second round. Etienne Jr. will be difficult to draft as anything more than a flex starter next season.
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams: I wasn’t super high on Williams based on concerns about his durability. Remember, he was dealing with an injured foot back in the preseason and the Rams drafted Blake Corum. Well, Williams played 16 games and finished with 16 total touchdowns and 272.1 fantasy points. That was good enough to finish seventh in points at the position. The lesson learned is that even if a team drafts a running back who was a star in college, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll hurt the value of an incumbent starter.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals: This was easily my biggest whiff of the year. I was very high on Harrison Jr., as he had landed in a great spot to produce big numbers in Arizona. I was also on a high since we had seen so many rookie wide receivers post big totals over the last few years, so I had Harrison Jr. ranked as a second-round pick in redrafts. Well, he went on to finish as the WR30 … that’s clearly not what we anticipated from a top-30 selection.
My mindset wasn’t completely wrong, as two rookie receivers (Brian Thomas Jr and Malik Nabers) finished in the top six in points at the position. But unfortunately for me and the teams where I drafted Harrison Jr. highly, I picked the wrong rookie wideout to target.
Jayden Reed, WR, Packers: I loved Reed entering the season, and I was feeling pretty good about him when he scored 33.1 fantasy points in the season opener. This was an easy win! After four weeks, Reed was the WR4. After that, however, the statistical bottom fell out.
Over his next 12 games, Reed was held to single digits six times including one game with 1.6 points and another with zero points (that game hurt!) In those 12 contests, he averaged a meager 9.5 points. That ranked him as the WR43, behind the likes of Wan’Dale Robinson, DeMario Douglas, Rashod Bateman and Nick Wesbrook-Ikhine (to name a few).
Clearly, those sort of numbers didn’t leave managers “green” with statistical envy.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fabs Fabs: Biggest Fantasy Football Hits And Misses in 2024 and Lessons Learned.
