Liverpool are closing in on what is likely to be another shrewd piece of transfer business.
The Reds have been trailing the 19-year-old Fulham winger for some time and were close to getting a deal over the line for the Portuguese at the very end of the January transfer window but the clock ran out. But the two parties reached an agreement in the weeks that followed and it now looks like one of the most exciting young talents in English football will join the Reds ranks for next season.
A fee of around £7m has been mooted for Carvalho, with the soon to be out of contract winger, with Liverpool keen to avoid a tribunal route, especially with the stock for the teenager having risen considerably already this year, with Carvalho having been a key part of Fulham's Championship title winning charge under Marco Silva, as well as earning his under-21 stripes with Portugal having previously represented England at U16, U17 and U18 level before switching allegiances to the country of his birth at the start of the year.
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The deal for Carvalho falls in line with what has been a remarkably successful transfer policy for Liverpool under the ownership of Fenway Sports Group, one where young talent or undervalued talent is brought in to be developed into players able to compete at the elite levels at which Liverpool operate, or moved on further on down the line for a significant profit on what they paid.
In the case of Carvalho he is very much one for the future, and a fee of around £7m is one that the Reds know they will make a profit on even if he doesn't find a route to a regular first team spot in the Liverpool side in the coming seasons. The reasons for that are numerous, from the simple lift that being a part of Liverpool brings to value, to his bow on the senior international stage like to be expedited through him changing allegiance to Portugal, and playing for Portugal means that he will likely be playing on the big stages at the major tournaments, something that also adds to value.
At present that £7m valuation is really over what you would expect to pay for a player whose contract is up in the summer and who has no intention to stay. But Liverpool won't mind paying a slightly inflated training compensation cost to the Cottagers, the reality being that by the end of next season, if a successful plan is implemented for Carvalho, his value will be in excess of double that.
Quite what happens to Carvalho next season is an unknown, although the void at Porto that Liverpool created in January by signing Luis Diaz in a £49m deal means that there is the possibility that Carvalho could well find himself on loan in Portugal.
After the January transfer window closed, Pascoal Sousa, a journalist with Portuguese news outlet 'A Bola' told the ECHO : "He (Carvalho) is a player that Porto wants.
"They are looking at the summer. They are very interested in him.
"If Liverpool buys him then who knows, he could head to Porto. It is something that could happen."
Such a deal would make sense. Carvalho has already shown he has mastered the Championship and is more than comfortable at that level, the next challenge being to test himself in the Premier League, something that he did very briefly at the end of the 2020/21 season when Fulham were relegated. But the yo-yo nature of Fulham's Premier League status in recent seasons points to the potential for another season of struggle, so would that be the best environment in which to continue Carvalho's development? But would he get that Premier League, elite level experience at Liverpool with the regularity that would be required for him to keep progressing? After all, he played 35 times in the Championship this season.
A deal to go on the continent, in an environment where he will feel comfortable and with a big club that will be able to deliver experiences in the Champions League would provide developmental growth to Carvalho, as well as driving his value far higher. Marko Grujic spent a season on loan at Porto and doubled the money that the Reds paid for him when the Portuguese side opted to make it permanent in a £10.5m deal last summer.
Liverpool, now having nailed down Jurgen Klopp's future for the long term, are a club that are operating at their peak but also conscious of ensuring that the transfer strategy they adopt allows them to make the transition into a new era as seamlessly as possible, hence the more recent additions of a 22-year-old Ibrahima Konate and just-turned 25-year-old Diaz. Add to that the addition of Harvey Elliott the summer before and the Reds are starting to put pieces in place to try and ensure sustained success and avoid the disruptive and expensive route of a major rebuild down the line.
Liverpool will know that they have little in the way of risk when it comes to Carvalho in terms of the finances of the deal. The key point will be where to place him to best suit his development and to get him to the point where he can contribute at Liverpool, and how that can be done swiftly. Liverpool's misses in the transfer market over the past decade are few, and that is a trend that doesn't look like changing soon.
