Had Liverpool succeeded in their first efforts to sign Fabio Carvalho from Fulham in January 2022, the former Portugal Under-21s international would have finished the campaign on loan at Craven Cottage before linking up with the Reds last summer.
As it happened, a deal wasn’t completed in time on transfer deadline day, so the forward finished the season with the Cottagers regardless. Returning 10 goals from 36 appearances, he played a vital role as they secured an immediate return to the Premier League by winning the Championship.
Of course, by the time Fulham had sealed promotion back to the English top-flight, Carvalho’s move to Liverpool was near enough complete behind the scenes. Out of contract last summer, a compensation package had already been agreed rather easily, with the Portuguese eventually moving to Anfield for an initial £5.5m.
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Nearly 12 months on from when such a switch was officially confirmed, in hindsight you could be forgiven for wondering whether the Reds should have still sanctioned a loan exit for the 20-year-old last summer.
In truth, Carvalho’s first season on Merseyside has not panned out how he would have envisaged at the start of the campaign. While he would enjoy a bright start, scoring off the bench in the 9-0 victory over AFC Bournemouth before netting a stoppage-time winner against Newcastle United in late August, his game-time has grown increasingly limited as Liverpool’s struggling campaign wore on.
Boasting 20 appearances in all competitions, eight have been from the start. Withdrawn at half-time in three of those starts, his only full 90-minute outing came in the 7-1 victory over Rangers back in October, with him only registering more than 60 minutes of action on four occasions for the Reds. Meanwhile, the League Cup third round clash with Derby County back in November is the only other time, other than that trip to Ibrox, where he has broken the 70-minute barrier.
Carvalho would actually start and score against Man City in Liverpool’s first game back after last winter’s World Cup, only to be withdrawn at half-time as the Reds fell to a 3-2 loss. A 66-minute showing away at Wolves in an FA Cup third-round replay in mid-January remains his last, and only other, start since the mid-season Qatar excursions.
It should be no surprise, therefore, that he has been limited to three goals from his first season on Merseyside as a result, given that reduced game-time. Admittedly the counter-argument would be that he ultimately struggled to make an impact in the first half of the campaign when turned to more frequently, though he has hardly been aided by being utilised in a variety of different positions or by his new club’s surprising struggles.
But being used for just three minutes of action in the Premier League and Champions League since the World Cup, he has hardly had an opportunity to improve his fortunes either.
A two-minute substitute appearance in the 1-0 loss to AFC Bournemouth last month remains his only top-flight outing since the World Cup, with the 20-year-old even being left out of Jurgen Klopp’s matchday squad for three of their last four league matches since that defeat on the South Coast.
Reports this week have suggested that Carvalho will be allowed to leave Liverpool in the summer, with it later clarified that any departure would likely only be on loan. It is believed that such a move is not set in stone but not out of the question.
Given his limited game-time at Anfield, perhaps a loan exit would have been beneficial for the forward last summer? When you see Fulham sitting an impressive 10th in the Premier League, while their European hopes might be diminishing, it’s hard not to wonder what could have been had Carvalho had the opportunity remain with Marco Silva’s side for another season. Whether the Cottagers would hold any interest in re-signing their former player on a temporary basis remains to be seen.
Yet, of course Klopp and Liverpool would have wanted the player at Anfield in the short-term. Even if granted a loan move for next season, the Portuguese has at least had one season to acclimatise in his new surroundings.
“Fabio, wow, what a season he played with Fulham. Getting promoted (with a) football-playing (style),” Klopp told the club last year when sharing his excitement at the transfer. “Properly football-playing, it’s not easy so Marco Silva obviously did an incredible job there.
“A big part of that was absolutely Fabio. When we watched him it was a pure joy to watch him, absolutely. He can play so many different positions for us, the way we play.
“At the minute he’s not really set on one position – it’s the wing, it’s the eight, it’s the 10, it’s the false nine if he grows a few more muscles.
“It’s a short-term and a long-term project; he can start tomorrow and he needs to adapt, you can see that a little bit, but when he has the ball that’s proper quality. I’m over the moon that he’s here. Fantastic prospect.”
Predominantly a number 10 at Fulham, Carvalho has played on the wing, as an eight, and as a false nine for Liverpool without really showcasing his best abilities. The short-term project has not been a success.
But it has not been a failure either, despite this limited impact. Perhaps a loan move in the summer could unlock the door to a successful long-term project between club and player at least. While such a switch has often been a death knell to many an Anfield career, the 20-year-old only needs to look to fellow former Fulham youngster Harvey Elliott to see how a second season spent away from Merseyside can prove to be most beneficial, after all.
Meanwhile, beyond getting the midfielder more game-time, a loan exit for Carvalho in 2023/24 could make further sense when it comes to squad registration rules.
One perk of signing the 20-year-old from Fulham was his looming homegrown status. While currently an Under-21s player, and not needing to be registered for Premier League action as a result, he will subsequently qualify as one of their eight required homegrown players from 2024/25 if they are to name a full 25-man squad.
But while he wouldn’t fill a place in Klopp’s Premier League squad next season, things are more complicated for European competition in the short-term.
Despite both being under the age of 21, Carvalho and fellow summer signing Calvin Ramsay both had to be registered in this year’s Champions League squad if Klopp wished to call upon their services. This is because they are not eligible to be included on ‘List B’ of underage players, with the Scotland international finding himself left out of the squad and ineligible for Europe in the second half of the season as a result.
For a player to be eligible to be named on ‘List B’, they must have been eligible to play for the club concerned for any uninterrupted period of two years since his 15th birthday, or for a total of three consecutive years with a maximum of one loan period to a club from the same association for a period not longer than one year.
As a result, while Carvalho remains an Under-21s player in the eyes of the Premier League both this season and next, Liverpool will need to again select him in their squad for European competition if they wish to field him next season. Given the midfield revamp and transfer surgery plotted at Anfield this summer, his presence would therefore complicate matters when it comes to naming a squad, ensuring the Reds either need to leave space for him that could be filled by an additional player or leave out a further senior player.
For the record, as Carvalho is already 20, he will never be eligible for a place on ‘List B’ as he’ll be over the age of 21 by the time he has enjoyed two uninterrupted seasons with the Reds.
Beyond next season, unlike Ramsay, it is not possible for the Portuguese to ever be classed as a ‘club-trained’ player in the eyes of UEFA. From a club’s eight local nominees, if they are to name a full 25-man squad, four must qualify as ‘club-trained’ and have been on a club's books for three years between the ages of 15 and 21.
As a result, Carvalho can only ever qualify as ‘association-trained’, having been on another club's books in the same association for three years between the ages of 15 and 21. Such status is secure courtesy of his time at Fulham.
Therefore, Liverpool would have nothing to lose if they let the forward leave on loan this summer. Partly signed to help bolster the Reds’ future homegrown quotas, such status both domestically and in Europe is already fulfilled for 2024/25 onwards.
In the meantime, a temporary exit side-steps any potential headaches regarding squad registration at Anfield next season, and ensures the 20-year-old can attain desired game-time, and maybe even nail down a position, before returning to Liverpool to take his place in the squad as a better, more experienced player the season after next.
While this campaign might not have gone to plan for Carvalho, Klopp’s ‘long-term project’ remains in place.
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