It was a Max Verstappen domination again in Austria last weekend, with the reigning champion taking his second season clean-sweep of pole, win and fastest lap, this time with a sprint race victory added into the bargain.
That makes it six races (including the sprint) since he last failed to win but while he looked comfortable again, there were at least some signs he may yet be beatable, given an off day and – dare we say it – some capricious British weather.
Ferrari had looked lost recently but upgrades put them back in the mix at the Red Bull Ring. It was a similar story for Mercedes, too, as the early season challenge from Aston Martin seemed to fade.
So, as F1 heads to what is home tarmac for many teams, what is the form?
WINNING CHANCES
Verstappen is now such a favourite for victory that the odds for any other driver to win are extremely tempting. Even Sergio Perez, in the second Red Bull, is up at 7-1 to take top spot this weekend.
Step away from the Red Bull camp and there are some even bigger odds for big name drivers – home hero Lewis Hamilton is next up on 12-1 in the Mercedes with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc on 14-1 and Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso 16-1.
Last year, Verstappen struggled with a damaged floor and only finished seventh, so there is always a chance. Mercedes has a ‘larger’ upgrade coming and the roar of the home crowd will urge Hamilton on. Maybe he can do it?
The stats make it abundantly clear there is no better driver than him around the Silverstone track – he has won eight times in total, seven in the last nine visits. That alone makes him a tempting tip at those odds.
Don’t discount Ferrari either. Last year their car suited Silverstone’s sweeping curves and – albeit with a bit of luck – Carlos Sainz won. He is 25-1 for a repeat and if Austria’s upgrades are anything to go by, that could be worth a long shot.
PODIUM CHALLENGERS
Perez showed just how strong the Red Bull car is by coming from 15th on the grid to take third in Austria but he had missed out on the podium in all of the preceding three races, so the door is clearly open for opportunity.
Despite that, the top-three odds are not hugely tempting around the big players and even McLaren’s Lando Norris and Mercedes’ George Russell, who will both be boosted by home fans and recent upgrades, are only at 33-10.
Potential rain for qualifying and sunshine and showers for the race could make it less predictable – so an outsider with form like Alpine, which was fifth in 2022, could be worth a look – Esteban Ocon is 49-1 or Pierre Gasly 69-1 for a podium.
POINTS PLAYERS
Looking outside the top order and widening to the top six still has Ocon at 21-5 and Gasly 6-1 – and although aside from a podium in Azerbaijan neither has finished higher than seventh all season, the weather could help upset the order.
Haas is often up for a gamble in changing conditions. They had a double-points finish at Silverstone last year and both drivers are 21-1 for a top six – which is exactly where Nico Hulkenberg finished in Austria, albeit in the sprint.
Alfa Romeo Stake’s Guanyu Zhou was lucky to escape serious injury last year when he was flipped upside down in a chaotic first lap crash. If he can eliminate those memories, he is 7-2 to add to his two points finishes so far this year.
CHANCE CHOICES
Britain is the most represented nationality on the grid this season, with Hamilton and Russell at Mercedes and Norris at McLaren – and backing anyone one of the three home hopes to take top spot is 38/5.
Last year saw three cars go out on lap one, but that is an exception to the rule. There is a good chance someone will get into trouble from the off, however, but it is anyone’s guess who it might be. The odds are there to be taken, though.
Red Bull is even fast when it comes to stopping but, in the pits, it is actually Ferrari that is leading the way this season. Their crew is 2-1 for the fastest stop this weekend – and if the car is on the pace, they will need to deliver.
NOTE: Odds correct at time of writing
