The orange flares were out in support of Max Verstappen in Austria last year but his hopes of victory were foiled. This year, he arrives having won all three of the last Grands Prix from pole position. It is hard to bet against him.
Charles Leclerc got the better of Verstappen on F1’s last visit after a tight battle, but with Ferrari under new management – Mattia Binotto was replaced by Fred Vasseur this year – they currently seem to be in a bit of a muddle.
Mercedes is coming back strong, having ditched their original car concept and shifted to a more mainstream design. A podium in Canada may point to a resurgence – but what are the chances Lewis Hamilton can rise to the top step?
As F1 heads to the Red Bull Ring, we take a look into the current form.
SPRINT STARS
Austria will see the season’s second sprint race. It is now the third year the sport has run these events and in the seven so far, Verstappen has won three, Valtteri Bottas two and Sergio Perez and George Russell one each.
This year’s format is different, however, with the sprint races now forming a stand-alone event with their own qualifying shoot-out. Perez won this year’s first sprint, in Azerbaijan, by overhauling pole sitter Charles Leclerc.
Eight points are on offer for the winner, with scoring all the way down to eighth place, but unless the qualifying session throws up some unexpected grid positions, expect the field to form up and finish in a similar order.
PODIUM CHALLENGERS
Verstappen is, of course, a clear odds favourite for victory. That is no surprise given his incredible record so far this year, winning six and finishing second twice – beaten by Perez on both of those occasions.
The odds of Perez winning again sit at around 7-1 but considering the Red Bull number two driver’s recent run of poor form, Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso, who is at similar odds, could be the beneficiary if Verstappen has issues.
That said, you have to go back to Australia last year – 27 races ago – for the last time Verstappen failed to finish a race and, during that time, he has only failed to make the podium on three occasions.
The last race, in Canada, was supposed to be on one of the most difficult circuits for Mercedes, yet they came away with third place and Hamilton was just 14 seconds behind Verstappen at the end.
The former champions have played down their performance, with engineering chief Andrew Shovlin stating there is “clearly a bit of pace to find before we’ll be worrying Max” but if they find that, Hamilton is at 10-1 for the win.
Last year, Ferrari was on better form and had both cars in the top three on the grid, with Leclerc going on to win the race. This year, however, they have only secured one podium with a third place for Leclerc in Azerbaijan.
POINTS PLAYERS
Haas performed well in Austria last year, securing a firm double-points finish in sixth and eighth – albeit a lap behind the leaders. McLaren and Alpine were the only other teams in the points outside Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes.
Given Aston Martin – who could only manage 13th and 17th last year – have now vaulted up into the mix at the front, there are fewer spaces for the other teams – but Ferrari’s struggles and Lance Stroll’s lack of pace could open the door.
Stroll has only managed to finish sixth or higher three times so far this season and has retired twice. Behind the top four, Alpine is the team with most points finishes, clocking up 10 in total, including a podium.
McLaren looked promising in Monaco but have not run well in the last two races. Instead, after scoring points in the last two races – Zhou Guanyu ninth in Spain and Valtteri Bottas 10th in Canada – Alfa Romeo Strike could be worth a look.
LOOKING LONG-TERM
Verstappen and Red Bull are so far ahead in the championship already that some bookies are no longer taking bets on them winning the title. When it comes to overall odds, second place is now the focus.
Eight of 22 races are gone and form is starting to show. Perez is under pressure at Red Bull and now could be a good time to back a non-Red Bull horse for runner-up, with Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso currently both at 3-1.
Mercedes’ George Russell is a whopping 499-1 to come second to Verstappen. Although Hamilton seems to have the upper hand at Mercedes right now, and Russell is 60 points off second, who knows what the next 14 races might bring?
NOTE: Odds correct at time of writing
