This is the sport’s 15th visit to the Middle East track and the tenth time the race has run with the drivers’ championship already concluded – but that certainly does not mean it no longer matters.
In fact, it matters not only to Verstappen – who will want to make his already hard-to-beat season race wins total even harder to beat – but also to Mercedes and Ferrari, who are battling for the runners-up spot in the constructors’ championship, and McLaren and Aston Martin, who are in a fight for fourth.
So, what can we expect from the final race of the year?
POLE PERFORMANCE
It was a Red Bull one-two on the grid for last year’s race and the odds of one of the team’s cars topping the pile in qualifying again this year are 1.44 – with Verstappen at 1.57 for pole and his team-mate Sergio Perez at 17.00.
It was two-by-two-by-two on the grid last year, with the Ferrari pair on row two and Mercedes filling row three. Charles Leclerc was little more than two tenths slower than Verstappen, however, and given the Ferrari driver has been on pole in three of the last four races, his odds of 4.50 are relatively generous.
A GRAND FINALE
If all goes to form, it should be Verstappen’s race to lose. The odds of a win for the Dutch driver are 1.28, but he will not just want that, he will want to win in style. The last eight races in Abu Dhabi have been won from pole – including Verstappen’s victory last year and in 2021, when he also got the fastest lap. The odds of him – or anyone – getting that triple triumph this weekend are 2.42.
PODIUM POTENTIAL
Verstappen has won the race three times, but Hamilton has won it five and he has been on the podium in all but four of the 14 races at the track so far. The odds of the Briton ending a rollercoaster year with his seventh podium of the season are 2.75 – with odds of a long-shot victory at 17.00.
The two Red Bulls and Leclerc’s Ferrari are perhaps more likely for a top three spot, having finished as the top three last year and done the same last time out in Las Vegas. The individual podium odds for each are 1.12 for Verstappen, 2.10 for Perez and 2.75 for Leclerc.
Lando Norris suffered a heavy crash in Las Vegas but will want to come back and top off a strong year with a final podium – which could even jump him from sixth to fourth in the drivers’ championship. He is second favourite after Verstappen for a podium – which would be his sixth in the last eight races – at odds of 1.72.
CHAMPIONSHIP CHALLENGES
The runners-up battle between Ferrari and Mercedes will be worth following, as a few points either way could be crucial. The two teams are separated by just four points, so getting both cars home will be vital. The odds of either having at least one car drop out are 3.85, while it is 1.22 for each to have both cars finish.
The odds of a top-six finish for Leclerc and Hamilton are 1.25, while Carlos Sainz is at 1.34 and George Russell 1.51. The odds of both Ferraris getting in the top six are 1.66, while Mercedes are slightly less favoured to do so at 1.83.
That battle for fourth is also interesting – although given recent form, with 11 points separating Aston Martin from McLaren it should be done and dusted. Realistically, Aston Martin will need a double-points finish – at odds of 2.60 – while a McLaren retirement would also help, although the odds of that are 3.55.
The wooden spoon for last place is currently between Haas, on 12 points, and Alfa Romeo Stake, on 16. Neither team has scored a point since Qatar, but on that occasion eighth and ninth added six points to Alfa’s total. A similar double-points finish for Haas could jump them up the table, but that is unlikely at 40.00.
CHANCE CHOICES
The safety car last made an appearance in Abu Dhabi at the infamous title-deciding 2021 race. It has only appeared five times in 14 events – just over 35% of the time – and the odds of it appearing again this weekend are 1.85, which are exactly the same as the odds of it not.
The ‘championship’ for fastest pit stop has, like everything else, already gone to Red Bull, but the fastest stop is still there for the taking at every race. In Las Vegas, McLaren topped the lot with a stop of 1.99s – only the fourth sub-2s stop of the season – and they have five of the eight fastest times this season. They are at 2.75 to do top the times this weekend, with Red Bull at 2.00 and Ferrari 6.00.
For more betting odds and the latest markets on this weekend’s Grand Prix and all Formula 1 races, head over to stake.com
NOTE: Odds correct at time of writing
