An extra 400,000 people could be signed off as unfit for work under Labour’s controversial welfare reforms, the government’s own figures show.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall declared ministers were being “ambitious for our people and our country” as she announced plans to slash £5bn from the benefits bill earlier this month.
Alongside the cuts, she pledged changes to the system designed to get the long-term sick back into work.
But the government’s own analysis of the impact of the changes show far more people will receive the top level of incapacity benefit by 2030 than previously thought.
This is because ministers scrapped Conservative plans that would have resulted in more of those with mobility and mental health problems looking for work.
Labour insists that their changes will ultimately get people back to work, once the impact of their £1bn employment support programme kicks in.
However, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned it has seen no evidence of how the reforms will boost employment.
The cuts to the welfare budget have prompted fury among many Labour MPs.
But Ms Kendall has insisted that they are necessary to fix a “broken” benefits system her party inherited from the last Tory government.
As part of her plans, she reduced the top rate of incapacity benefits for those deemed unfit for any work, saying the move was necessary to take away “perverse financial incentives that the Tories created, which actively encourage people into welfare dependency”.
Official estimates last autumn suggested their number would increase to 2.6 million by 2030 if nothing was done.
However, updated estimates in an impact assessment finally released last week show numbers will rise to 3 million by the end of the decade, despite the reforms which will halve the payment for new claimants.
Government sources told The Times, which first reported the story, that the main reason for the rise was that ministers had reversed planned changes to the work capability assessment, through which people qualify for incapacity benefits.
These would have required more people with mobility and mental health problems to take steps to prepare for work.
The OBR has previously estimated it would have meant around 450,000 fewer people in the top category of incapacity benefit by 2030, The Times reported.
Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, said: “It takes a particular level of incompetence to bring forward a welfare reform plan which leaves more people on out of work benefits and fewer people in work, according to the official forecasts.
“Labour inherited reforms which would have seen hundreds of thousands fewer people on long-term benefits where there are no requirements to take steps towards work. They have scrapped those principled reforms and instead chosen to rush through cuts to disability benefits designed purely to save the chancellor from breaking her fiscal rules.”
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