The Houston Texans have a problem.
“For us to be a good offense, we have to have Dameon [Pierce] at his A-game,” Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik preached early in Houston’s offseason. “For Dameon to have his A-game, our offensive line has to be on their game, so it’s all a matter of guys working in sync, working in conjunction, and I think having Dameon, it’s not just about Dameon. We know his abilities, capabilities as a back and what he can do, but it’s also having that complement. So, having Singletary, having [Mike] Boone, our other guys, it’s about having that complement of guys that can carry the load.”
Buy Texans TicketsDespite their clear intentions in the summer, Slowik and his offense simply can’t find a way to run the ball, nor have they found ways to get Pierce at his A-game. Houston ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per carry at 3.0. Their 413 total rushing yards are 26th in the NFL and their minus-.21 EPA/carry is 31st in the NFL.
Dameon Pierce is averaging 2.8 yards per carry and has a higher stuff rate (25%) than success rate (20.3%) on the ground.
Not saying that Houston can abandon the run, they can't, but hard to believe this is the backbone of their best possible offense #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) October 8, 2023
Pierce, who many expected to have a breakout sophomore campaign, is averaging 2.9 yards per carry on the season. The former Florida product has been stuffed on runs at a higher percentage than he’s found rushing success. Devin Singletary has similarly suffered, albeit with a slightly higher average at 3.5 yards per carry.
This has created quite the dilemma for Slowik and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. What is the identity of Houston’s offense where they struggle to establish the run? What are the routes forward in a world where Pierce and the offensive line have struggled to this degree?
Through 5 weeks, Houston and OC Bobby Slowik rank 4th in the NFL on rushing attempts on first down with 60 (excluding 4th quarters to account for blowout game scripts)
Of those first down attempts, they are 29th in the NFL in success rate at just 25% #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) October 9, 2023
The problem might be multi-dimensional.
To begin, the way in which Houston is committed to their running games makes them somewhat predictable. They’re top-5 in the league in rushing attempts on first down per NFL NextGen Stats and they lead the league in sequences of run-run-pass. This has allowed defenses to tee off on early downs, expecting that either Pierce or Singletary will likely carry the rock.
Houston and San Francisco lead the NFL in rushing attempts into stacked boxes (8+ defenders) during the first half of games.
The difference? SF has a success rate of 66.7% on those runs (1st) while HOU is at just 25% (29th)
Slowik may want this offense to be something it isn't.
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) October 9, 2023
This becomes further exacerbated by the fact that Stroud is unlikely to audible out of undesirable run looks on early downs. Only the 49ers have attempted as many rushes into loaded boxes as Houston (8-plus defenders) and they’re only able to do so with an elite blocking tight end like George Kittle and the league’s best running back in Christian McCaffrey.
Slowik has also shown a preference to run with heavier personnel to assist his depleted offensive line. This has created some clear offensive tells for Houston based on personnel. They rank 31st in the league in running the ball when there are three receivers on the field. Meanwhile, Slowik’s offense is top-10 in rushing percentage out of all other groupings.
The predictable sequencing, down-to-down tendencies, and formations create an edge for the defense. This is before one even considers the personnel struggles that Houston has faced.
Houston’s offensive line is composed of far better pass blockers than run blockers. There is evidence to this in their historic Pro Football Focus grades and those trends continued, even with a healthy offensive line, against the Atlanta Falcons.
Texans offensive line grades Week 5
Pass Blocking
Laremy Tunsil 89.9
Tytus Howard 71.5
Jarrett Patterson 49.0
Shaq Mason 50.4
George Fant 63.0Run Blocking
Laremy Tunsil 60.1
Tytus Howard 51.6
Jarrett Patterson 54.2
Shaq Mason 62.6
George Fant 63.8— Patrick Storm (@PatrickStormHTX) October 9, 2023
Meanwhile, Pierce has struggled with the transition to Slowik’s zone-based running scheme. His propensity to embrace contact hasn’t allowed for him to take full advantage to how the running game is drawn up. There could be arguments for Singletary to see additional carries, or one could argue they should play to Pierce’s strengths. Either way, something likely needs to be adjusted for strengths to match the ball carrier.
Predictable play calling. Personnel fits. Players underwhelming to their pre-season expectations. There’s not an easy solution for Houston to address their problems.
Rushing and passing efficiency on early downs
That lower left corner is painful pic.twitter.com/UwaRwKpasF
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 10, 2023
Don’t be surprised if, as Stroud continues to develop, they allow his arm to take pressure off of the running game. Houston has an early down passing success rate similar to the Kansas City Chiefs and, that early threat, could create far more favorable rushing situations for the team while making them less predictable. It’s additionally possible that, as their expensive offensive line returns to full health, they’re trusted to block in 11-personnel at a higher percentage rate.
Adjustments are needed all around in Houston for a team that should believe they can compete for the AFC South. Now, it’s just up to Slowik to find his next evolution.
