The story so far: All eyes this week are on Johannesburg, as leaders of the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) grouping are hosted by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. BRICS is essentially a movement of “emerging economies”, and thus gives a salience to economic issues, but given the geopolitical flux especially after the war in Ukraine, this BRICS summit takes on a new importance. It is, therefore, no surprise that many Western capitals are watching the summit closely. French President Emmanuel Macron even suggested he would attend, “if invited”. (France and other Western countries are not invited).
Why is the 15th BRICS summit important?
This BRICS meet comes at an important geopolitical and geoeconomic moment — this is the first in-person summit since 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Even in 2022, when COVID had receded, the remnants of the pandemic remained in China, and the summit was hosted via videoconference. This is also the first in-person meeting since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, an event that has cast a long shadow not only over global stability, but food, fertilizer and fuel (energy) security. Given its composition, BRICS deliberations are perceived to carry a “counter-western” slant, and will be of importance as the U.S. and EU still hope to try and “isolate” Russia over the conflict. This is also the first summit since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Lula returned to power in Brazil, who represents a more socialist, anti-western politics than his predecessor President Bolsonaro.
What is in it for India?
For India, this BRICS summit carries special importance. This is the first in-person summit since the military standoff with China at the Line of Actual Control began in 2020, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will come face to face with President Xi Jinping at the BRICS meet. While they have attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, and had a brief meeting at the G20 in Bali last year; at the BRICS summit they will be in a very small group of four (with President Putin attending virtually), and will have many opportunities to hold bilateral talks. Ahead of the summit, the 19th round of India-China Corps Commander Level Meeting resulted in a joint statement last weekend, seen as a positive sign ahead of a possible Modi-Xi engagement. This meeting would be significant in terms of resolving the LAC situation, where an estimated 1,00,000 soldiers stand at the boundary on either side. But there are other reasons too why this meeting is necessary. Just over two weeks after the BRICS summit, India will host the G20 summit, and Prime Minister Modi will want to ensure full attendance by the leaders, which include all BRICS members.
In addition, India wants more cooperation from China and Russia that are blocking discussions on a common language for the Leader’s declaration to be released at the summit on September 9-10. Mr. Modi might use the forum for talks on the issues over the paragraphs on Ukraine, climate change, debt financing and others that are being held up by their objections.
Who will be there?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Lula will join President Ramaphosa for meetings on August 22-24, and will deliberate on the “Johannesburg Declaration” to be released at the end of the summit. President Xi is also in South Africa for a separate bilateral state visit, while Mr. Modi will club the BRICS travel with a visit to Greece on his way back to Delhi. Russian President Vladimir Putin is not attending “by mutual agreement”, said Mr. Ramaphosa’s office, indicating the issue over Mr. Putin’s appearance at the BRICS, given that there is a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against him, which would have made it difficult for South Africa, an ICC signatory, to ignore. Mr. Putin will attend the summit via video and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will officiate at the event in Johannesburg.
Apart from BRICS leaders, South Africa has invited all 55 members of the African Union (AU) to the event and about 20 other leaders from Asia, South America and small Island States who represent the Global South for sessions on the sidelines of the summit. The message from the invitations is a clear pitch for the developing world to come together on economic issues. In addition, many of the countries that are seeking to join the increasingly important grouping will be represented at leadership levels.
What’s the big item on the agenda?
During the summit, the leaders of BRICS will confer among themselves, and also take part in the BRICS-Africa Outreach and BRICS Plus Dialogue. A major item on the agenda is on the expansion of BRICS. Conceived of in the early 2000s in a Goldman Sachs paper as a grouping of the fastest growing developing economies not in the G-7, BRIC nations held their first summit in 2009 — and inducted South Africa in 2010. While their economies haven’t lived up to their promise, BRICS has produced some significant outcomes, like the New Development Bank, Contingency Reserve Arrangement for currency, an R&D centre for vaccines and others. More broadly, it is seen as an attractive alternative to the G-7 developed countries “club”. More than 40 countries have shown an interest in joining BRICS, and at least 19 countries have applied formally for membership. Of these, consensus appears to be developing around four countries: Argentina, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran. Mr. Modi’s telephone conversation with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Friday discussed cooperating over “BRICS expansion”, the MEA noted, indicating that some sort of decision on inducting new members is expected. The MEA has also denied reports that it is opposed to the expansion, suggesting that it wants to set clear criteria for inducting new members.
What else is expected to be discussed?
BRICS leaders are also expected to take forward earlier talks on intra-BRICS trading in national currencies, although a much-touted plan pushing for a “BRICS currency” to challenge the dollar does not appear to be on the agenda. The Johannesburg Declaration will include language acceptable to all the countries on a number of global developments. In addition, South Africa which has chosen the theme “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development, and Inclusive Multilateralism” for the year, seeks to introduce initiatives in its priority areas, including an equitable and just transition on climate change issues; unlocking opportunities through the African Continental Free Trade Area; and strengthening the meaningful participation of women in peace processes. Indian officials will also look out for language proposed by China, by far the biggest economy in the grouping, to promote Beijing’s key initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, and the new Global Development Initiative (GDI) as part of an economy roadmap for BRICS.
India had refused to sign onto an Economy Roadmap at the SCO meeting chaired by India in July 2023 for the same reasons.
