In the wake of the devastating earthquake in Turkey, a years-old academic study on seismic activity in China has sparked concerns that the overseas disaster has increased the possibility of domestic tremors in the near future. But the fear is unfounded, experts said.
The study, published in 2014 in the China Earthquake Administration’s journal Earthquake, showed that based on global data of earthquakes dating from 1900, increased activity in the Eurasian seismic zone could lead to powerful quakes on the Chinese mainland within three years.
The Eurasian seismic zone stretches from the Mediterranean Sea, across the Eurasian continent and down through much of Southeast Asia.
According to the study — On the Relationship between Seismic Enhancement of the Eurasian and the Occurrences of M≥7 Earthquakes in Mainland China — when the ratio of energy from magnitude 7 or higher quakes in the Eurasian seismic zone to global seismic energy is greater than 50%, and an earthquake of magnitude 8 or above occurs in the Eurasian zone in the same year, multiple quakes measuring at least 7 on the Richter scale will likely hit the Chinese mainland in the following three years.
The Turkey and Syria border region was rocked by a 7.8 magnitude temblor on Feb. 6, which was followed by a 7.5 aftershock.
“Although there were two 7.8 magnitude earthquakes in Turkey this year and the seismic energy the pair released is equivalent to that of a magnitude 8 earthquake, it’s still not clear how many earthquakes will happen (in the Eurasian seismic zone and the world) in the next 10 months,” a seismologist told Caixin.
Meanwhile, Sun Shiyi, a researcher at the China Earthquake Network Center, told state-run newspaper Global Times on Sunday that there is no need for the public to panic and that the average probability of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or above in China is twice every three years over the past century. However, as a result, China is still very likely to have an earthquake of magnitude 7 or above within three years, regardless of whether Turkey or other countries in the world have experienced strong earthquakes.
This month, Foshan and Heyuan, South China’s Guangdong province, experienced tremors on Feb. 5 and Feb. 11, which measured 3.2 and 4.3 on the Richter scale, respectively.
Huang Tenglang, an official of the Guangdong earthquake bureau, told a local media outlet that there is no evidence of a correlation between the recent seismic activity in the province and the quake in Turkey.
Contact reporter Li Hang (hangli@caixin.com) and editor Jonathan Breen (jonathanbreen@caixin.com)
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