A recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggests the need for a new category of hurricanes to accurately represent the increasing intensity of the strongest storms. The traditional five-category Saffir-Simpson scale, developed over 50 years ago, may not adequately convey the true power of these monstrous storms. Climate scientists propose a sixth category for hurricanes with winds exceeding 192 miles per hour (309 kilometers per hour). The authors argue that the current system fails to sufficiently warn the public about the higher dangers posed by storms reaching speeds close to 200 mph (322 kph) or higher.
While several experts have voiced their concerns, stating that another category may give the wrong signal as it solely focuses on wind speed, rather than addressing the deadliest aspect of hurricanes – water. Water, often associated with storm surge and flooding, poses a significant threat during such events.
In recent years, there have been an increasing number of super powerful storms. Since 2013, five storms in the Pacific have had winds exceeding 192 mph, the proposed threshold for the new category. Two of these storms made landfall in the Philippines. As the world warms, conditions become more favorable for such whopper storms, not just in the Pacific but also in the Gulf of Mexico, where storms that impact the United States tend to intensify.
Lead author of the study, Michael Wehner, a climate scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, emphasizes that 'climate change is making the worst storms worse.' The number of storms hasn't necessarily increased, but their intensity has. The warming of ocean waters contributes to the higher proportion of major hurricanes among all storms.
Typhoon Haiyan, which reached wind speeds of 195 mph (315 kph) over the Pacific, has raised concerns in the past about the need for a new category. The study suggests that Haiyan is not an isolated case, implying that storms of similar magnitude may become more frequent in the future.
The Saffir-Simpson scale currently classifies storms as hurricanes if they form east of the international dateline, typhoons if they form to the west, and as cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Australia.
Among the storms mentioned in the study are Typhoon Meranti in 2016, Hurricane Patricia in 2015, Typhoon Goni in 2020, and Typhoon Surigae in 2021. These storms all reached wind speeds of 192 mph or more, causing devastation in the areas they hit.
As the world continues to warm, the potential for a Category 6 hurricane to form in the Atlantic increases. The study suggests that with a rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, the Gulf of Mexico could experience conditions conducive to Category 6 storms for up to a month.
Despite the arguments put forth in the study, some experts are skeptical about the necessity for a new category. They emphasize the importance of focusing on the individual hazards associated with hurricanes, such as storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes, and rip currents. The existing Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale already identifies storms that can cause catastrophic damage from wind.
The debate surrounding the implementation of a Category 6 hurricane classification continues. While some scientists argue for the inclusion of a new category to accurately represent the growing intensity of these storms, others maintain that the existing system adequately addresses the primary hazards associated with hurricanes. As the climate continues to change, the discussion around hurricane classification and preparedness will remain a crucial aspect of protecting communities from severe weather events.
