We’ve had a week to digest the New Orleans Saints’ 2023 schedule, and opinions vary quite a bit on just how good the team will be this year. There’s a lot of hand-wringing going on about how high Derek Carr can elevate their struggling offense (if at all, to hear some experts spin it) as well as whether Dennis Allen is the right head coach for this team after an unimpressive debut ten years after his Raiders stint went up in smoke.
All of the turnover and free agent departures hasn’t instilled much confidence, either, but this is still a team that can compete in a weak division and maybe make some noise if things go their way. Here’s what’s being written about the Saints and their fortunes for 2023:
ESPN: Over 9.5 wins
ESPN‘s Mike Clay sees the Saints slightly beating their over/under at 9.5, and he’s backed up by sports betting analyst Doug Kezirian:
I had high hopes in 2022, and the Saints completely whiffed in some critical games. I believe in regression, and Derek Carr should be a considerable upgrade over an aging and limited Andy Dalton. With a weak schedule, the table is set for a solid season.
CBS Sports: 7-10
CBS Sports’ Will Brinson doesn’t see enough room for improvement in New Orleans given the nominal upgrades their division-rivals have made this spring:
The 2022 Saints went 7-10 too and Derek Carr is an upgrade here so maybe this is too low. But the Falcons and Panthers are a little more interesting to me — how the Saints start on the road might determine their season.
PFF: Under 9.5 wins
Pro Football Focus‘ Dalton Wasserman and Jim Wyman are down on the NFC South as a whole, and they have too many questions for New Orleans to predict at winning record:
The Saints have major issues in the trenches, and Derek Carr has a mediocre grading profile over the past year and a half. Is the switch from Andy Dalton to Carr worth three wins? Will Alvin Kamara be suspended to start the season? Can Michael Thomas stay on the field? The Saints are closer to the Falcons’ talent level than many think. The division will likely be won with eight or nine wins. It’s hard to see any team winning 10.
FOX Sports: 8-9
Fox Sports‘ Greg Aumen shares the worries of many Saints fans in wondering whether they’ll continue to play down to their competition and lose winnable games this year:
If the Saints are going to win the South, they need to come out of their bye strong, which makes a Week 12 game in Atlanta pivotal. Four of the first six are on the road, so they might dig an early hole. I have them winning in Minnesota in Week 10, one of the better wins by any NFC South team. Whether they can avoid stumbles against lesser opponents will decide whether they’re in the hunt late.
Sports Illustrated: 8-9
Sports Illustrated‘s Gilberto Manzano shares the same concern about the Saints’ suffering too many self-inflicted wounds and losing games they ought to be winning, but the talent lost on defense worries him too:
First-year Saints quarterback Derek Carr will be the most experienced signal-caller in the NFC South, and we’ll soon find out whether he’s the best in the division. Carr will get to connect with rising second-year wide receiver Chris Olave during NFC battles against the Lions, Giants, Packers and Vikings. It’s a winnable division for New Orleans, but the team will need wide receiver Michael Thomas to stay healthy and regain his top form. Also, the Saints lost a handful of defensive starters and are counting on first-round rookie defensive tackle Bryan Bresee to make an immediate impact. With an experienced roster, the Saints should be in the mix for a playoff spot.
Pro Football Network: 10-7
Pro Football Network‘s Ian Valentino is one of the few analysts predicting double-digit wins for New Orleans, but he’s a believer in Carr’s ability to at least not be an active detriment to the offense:
Many scoffed at the Saints’ addition of Derek Carr this offseason, but it’s important to see how much of an upgrade he is over Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. Carr, at his best, is an efficient player who rarely produced complete dud performances. Mere competence at quarterback for a Saints offense that has a relatively strong supporting cast is enough for a winning record.
On top of the talent advantage New Orleans should have against each of their divisional foes, the schedule is quite favorable for the Saints. Starting the year with the Titans, Panthers, Packers, and Buccaneers in the first month is a great opportunity to boost their record early. Ending the year against the Rams, Buccaneers, and Falcons, all of whom could be tanking by then, is also a major win.
Bleacher Report: 9-8
Bleacher Report‘s Kristopher Knox is worried about the possible suspension for Alvin Kamara and the learning curve for so many new faces on defense:
With the addition of Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr, the New Orleans Saints are probably the top team in the lowly NFC South. However, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the new-look Falcons or even the Bryce Young-led Panthers win the division.
Carr should be an upgrade over Andy Dalton, though perhaps not a major one. Carr threw six more touchdowns than Dalton last season but had a lower passer rating (86.3 versus 95.2) and had five more interceptions in one more game.
Additionally, star running back Alvin Kamara could receive a suspension from the league under its personal conduct policy after he allegedly participated in beating up a man in Las Vegas during Pro Bowl weekend in Feb. 2022. He was indicted on charges of conspiracy to commit battery and battery resulting in substantial bodily harm, and pleaded not guilty to all charges. The trial is slated for July 31.
New Orleans did a good job of reloading a defense that ranked in the top 10 of both points and yards allowed last season. Players such as Khalen Saunders, Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey were added to replace Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata and Kaden Elliss.
As long as Carr doesn’t fall flat in his new home, the Saints can lean on their defense to win games. New Orleans has the second-easiest schedule in the league and will have a legitimate shot at posting a winning record.
Saints Wire: 10-7
Our own predictions have the Saints improving over last season given the talent they’ve added so far, but questions about the quality of the coaching staff and in-game decision-making from Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael have us feeling anxious. They’ll need to prove this is a playoff team.
