THE historic Syrian-Kurdish deal that promised peace has “already been broken”, a leading expert has warned.
Syria announced a new temporary constitution which was unanimously rejected by Kurdish authorities as “authoritarian”.
The Kurdish-led SDF strongly criticised the document, claiming it did not represent Syria’s diverse society and put too much power in the hands of the president.
Juline Beaujouan, a fellow at Edinburgh University, said: “The constitutional declaration in Syria actually almost imposes an identity to all the Syrians, telling them that Syria is an Arab, Muslim nation, which obviously is very problematic.”
Only a few days earlier, the Syrian government signed an agreement with SDF to peacefully integrate the Kurdish administered north eastern region and form a single security force.
While it was hailed by many as a major step towards peace, Beaujouan said the eight-point pact was “quite fake”.
She said: “It’s a very nice first step for peace but look at the constitutional declaration that came a couple of days ago in Syria. I’m afraid that the deal was a nice promise that it seems has already been broken.”
Worries are particularly poignant given the eruption of violence in western Syria, which saw more than 1000 people killed, including 745 civilians, between March 6 and 8.
Reportedly started by loyalists to the ousted regime of Assad, it demonstrated how fragile the fabric of peace is in the country.
Regardless, the SDF-Syrian agreement was celebrated in the northeastern city of Qamishli, with citizens shouting through the streets: “One, one, one – the Syrian people are one.”
Enshrining the Kurdish peoples within the constitution and guaranteeing citizenship rights, the deal was praised by the US who are thought to have helped broker the pact.
Megan Boudette, director of the Kurdish Peace Institute, said: “This is a victory of the Kurdish struggle and political project in Northeast Syria, and I think that is part of what people were celebrating.
“I also think that a lot of the celebration was based on the fact that in the agreement, the Syrian state recognised that Kurds were a component of Syrian society for the first time.”
The Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES) has existed since 2012, when Kurdish forces took the region amid the Syrian civil war.
The Kurdish-led administration has endured countless attacks by Turkish forces, with President Erdogan invading the territory in 2018 and 2019.
Boudette said: “These destabilising Turkish interventions, strikes, and other forms of economic and diplomatic pressure on the region made it very difficult for the local security and governing authorities to create the kind of stability and political system that they wanted to create.”
Many believe Washington is looking for a way to remove the 2000 US troops that have been stationed in DAANES since 2014.
While originally sent to fight the Islamic State, they now play a vital role in deterring Turkish aggression.
While speculation is rife about the strength of US pressure surrounding this deal, Boudette believes it was in everyone’s interest.
She said: “I think a deal like this one was in the mutual interests of all parties. US mediation played an important role.
“If the US wants to withdraw from Syria and end the conflict in a way that is not going to plant the seeds of the next conflict ... you need to solve the political problems that are at the root of conflict, which means addressing the Kurdish issue on both sides of the border.”
Incentives are there for the new Syrian regime, who are desperate for revenue to revive the country’s war-torn economy.
Peaceful integration of the Kurds would legitimise the government in the eyes of the international community, opening up vital aid, as well as begin resuscitating the country’s destroyed oil industry.
Before the civil war, Syria was producing 383,000 barrels a day but most of the country’s oil is located inside the Kurdish region.
Refineries were located elsewhere and were under Assad’s ownership, dislocating the industry when war broke out.
The draw of better jobs at centralised refineries helped Assad two-fold – Kurds would have to migrate and integrate into Arab-dominated cities, and the predominantly agricultural Kurdish region was kept economically subservient.
Discussions over oil were already afoot between the SDF and the Syrian government in January, illustrating its importance to the balance.
Boudette said: “The success of agreements on the oil issue is something to watch, and the fact that this discussion was made prior to the more comprehensive agreement on political and military integration is a positive sign.
“This taps into many of the issues at the heart of the Kurdish issue in Syria … Can revenues from Syria’s resources be shared equitably? Can economic development benefit the entire country?”
Another point of contention is the fate of the thousands captured ISIS fighters, who still are held by the SDF in north-east Syria. Despite many promises from the international community, there has been no process to investigate and try these ISIS members for the crimes that they have committed.
Boudette said: “Now we face the prospect of these prisons being handed over to the transitional government in Syria, which with its Islamist background might not take issues like ISIS crimes as seriously as communities that were impacted by ISIS are hoping to see.”
Syria’s new president Ahmed al-Sharaa joined al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2003, later becoming the leader of Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of the terrorist organisation. He was catapulted into the limelight overnight, when HTS succeeded in toppling Assad in their December lightning offensive.
Beaujouan said: “The HTS leadership was told the road to Damascus was free but they didn’t have to topple anyone really, there was no fighting whatsoever. As we say in French, it was a ‘Route du Bonheur’ [road of happiness].”
She says they were “shocked” at their own success and when the media came knocking, they had “no vision whatsoever” – leaving the future uncertain.
