Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West: winner in 2019 of predecessor seat of Inverclyde – Ronnie Cowan (SNP)
OTHER than the islands of South Uist and Barra in the Na h-Eileanan an Iar constituency, which uniquely in Scotland were untouched by the Protestant Reformation, the parts of the country with the highest proportions of Roman Catholics are Inverclyde and Coatbridge.
In the case of Inverclyde, Irish Catholics often arrived in 19th century Greenock en route to somewhere else, such as the US, but stayed on if they found work. The living conditions were generally appalling, which created fertile ground for the Labour Party to build up a special relationship with the Catholic community.
As in Coatbridge, the effect of that was apparent well into the early 21st century, and may return to being a factor in this General Election. However, other political currents have also made themselves felt in the area at times, with Tory near-misses in the old Greenock constituency in the 1950s and then a surprising flirtation with the Liberals in the 1970s and 80s.
The future LibDem leader Menzies Campbell finished second in Greenock and Port Glasgow in the February 1974 election and the Liberals came within 10 percentage points of taking the seat in 1983 – doubtless helped by the fact that the local Labour MP Dickson Mabon had been one of the defectors to the Social Democratic Party two years earlier.
Nevertheless, by the time of the SNP’s post-indyref landslide in 2015, they had to overturn a Labour majority from five years earlier of 38.5 percentage points in the constituency, which by then had become known as Inverclyde. That wasn’t all that far short of the stonking 49.7 point Labour majority in the Catholic-rich Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill.
So it’s no surprise that Inverclyde was one of the constituencies the SNP struggled to retain in 2017 when Labour made a partial recovery under Jeremy Corbyn. The incumbent MP Ronnie Cowan was relieved to sneak home by a margin of just 1%, although on a more positive note he then rebuilt his majority over Labour to 19 points in 2019 – a better recovery for the SNP than in some of the other constituencies where Labour had performed well in 2017. That leaves Cowan in a vulnerable position this year but still with a realistic chance of hanging on.
Taking into account the impact of boundary changes which have brought Renfrewshire villages like Bridge of Weir and Houston into the constituency, Labour would make the gain from the SNP on a uniform swing even if they are as much as six points behind the SNP nationally.
Based on current polls, a modest SNP recovery nationally and a small local bucking of the pro-Labour trend could potentially be enough for Cowan to win. In his favour is that independence support is reasonably strong in Inverclyde, which divided practically 50/50 between Yes and No at the 2014 independence referendum, putting the Yes vote around five points higher than the national average.
There’s no great love for Brexit either, judging by the 64% Remain vote in Inverclyde at the 2016 EU referendum. But on the other hand, Labour’s chances could be indirectly boosted by the presence of candidates from two other pro-independence parties, Iain Hamilton of the Greens and Christopher McEleny of Alba, who are presumably more likely to take votes from the SNP than from Labour.
McEleny is a relatively well-known figure as the former SNP group leader on Inverclyde Council and a former candidate for the SNP depute leadership. However, when he sought to defend his council seat in 2022 after joining Alba, he took only 2.6% of the first preference vote in his ward, suggesting any personal vote he brings into this year’s election is modest.
It may be difficult for him to save his deposit, which means the main impact of his involvement is likely to be a slight reduction in the SNP vote.
That could make all the difference for Labour in a tight contest, which is exactly what the polling company YouGov has suggested will unfold in Inverclyde. Its constituency-level projection has Labour on 40% and the SNP on 37%. Expect nerves to be shredded on election night.
