A retired detective says police are correct to follow the theory that missing Nicola Bulley fell into a river - giving three reasons why. Nicola, 45, vanished on January 27 while walking her dog along the River Wyre in Lancashire.
Police have said their "main working hypothesis" was that the mother-of-two fell in the river. But there has still been no sign of Nicola and police say they are keeping an open mind as the investigation continues.
Julie Mackay, a retired Detective Superintendent who previously solved a 32-year-old murder, told The Mirror that she supports the police's hypothesis based on three factors: that no new information has given them a reason to think otherwise; it is unlikely to be criminal based on the time she disappeared; and the winter conditions would make it harder to find her.
She said: "On the face of it, I still agree with the police."
The former Det Supt said she didn't believe any criminal act had been committed. "If you were looking at a criminal act it is usually from an opportunist," she said.
"Where women are attacked by a stranger and sexually assaulted and or sadly murdered it's spontaneous. It's rare they would camp out the area, check the route, the CCTV and do it at all around 9am.
"This is when you are weighing up the pros and cons of third-party involvement. However, it's good that it is highlighted and that police continue to explore every opportunity."
Extensive searches by police and underwater forensic expert Peter Faulding have not found Nicola. Ms Mackay said: "They too are 100 per cent that she is not in that area in the river if she has gone in by the bend.
"The other bit of speculation is how hard it is to travel over that Wyre. It's not as unusual as you think. If she's then sadly gone over that Wyre it becomes tidal and then the possibility that she's gone out to sea is still quite possible."
Mortgage adviser Nicola was walking her brown spaniel Willow along the river in the village of St Michael's on Wyre. Lancashire Constabulary were seen combing the river bank, utilising diving teams, search dogs, drones and boats.
Earlier this week, the search had expanded to Morecambe Bay and specialists were seen on a board searching under Shard Bridge,which is seven miles from where Nicola was last seen.
Ms Mackay said that, if Nicola went into the river, her clothes would have weighed her down. She was last seen wearing a long black gilet jacket with a hood, black jeans and olive-green ankle wellies.
"Generally wearing winter clothes makes it more difficult to get out - it will weigh you down," she said. "The cold water shock alone will knock you sideways even for an experienced swimmer.
"That cold water shock very quickly disorientates you and with winter clothes it's heavy and panic will set in. And once you start losing control it can be quite difficult to regain it
When asked why no one had seen her in the river, she added: "I don't think it is unusual no one saw her in the river because there is a lot of debris, logs and rubbish. People don't expect to see something they can't identify. It's also how the body operates in the water, it sinks until decomposition sets in and because it's so cold it may be a bit longer."
Nicola's partner Paul Ansell previously said he was "100 per cent convinced" she was not in the river. Speaking to Dan Walker on Channel 5, he said: "Extensive searching, as you’re probably aware, has gone on in that river.
"The fact that the divers and underwater rescue team and all that were in that river on the day, and thankfully found absolutely nothing, in the part where you would have to presume is her last known location. Personally, I am 100 per cent convinced it’s not the river, that’s my opinion."
