A retired detective who cracked a 32-year-old murder case has backed the main police theory that Nicola Bulley fell into the River Wyre.
Nicola, 45, disappeared on January 27 while walking her brown spaniel Willow along the riverbank near the village of St Michaels on Wyre in Lancashire.
A massive search - which has now been expanded to Morecambe Bay 18 miles away - was launched by Lancashire Police, who say their "main working hypothesis" is that the mortgage advisor fell into the river, and that her body has yet to be found.
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Retired Detective Superintendent Julie Mackay told The Mirror that she backs the police's working hypothesis based on three factors:
- No new information has given them a reason to think otherwise.
- It is unlikely to be criminal based on the time she disappeared.
- The winter conditions would make it harder to find her.
She said: "I still believe she's gone in that river - today when you look at the last two weeks and review it, nothing has changed."
Extensive searches by police and underwater forensic expert Peter Faulding have not found Nicola. But the former Det Supt said that even though she hasn't been found near the potential entry point near the bench, it doesn't mean she's not there.
She said: "I think it is good to always have other specialists to try and find new leads or try and support the work that has been done. They too are 100 per cent that she is not in that area in the river if she has gone in by the bend.
"The other bit of speculation is how hard it is to travel over that Wyre. It's not as unusual as you think. If she's then sadly gone over that Wyre it becomes tidal and then the possibility that she's gone out to sea is still quite possible.
"On the face of it, I still agree with the police."
She also said she still didn't believe it was a criminal act, despite potential CCTV blind spots where Nicola could have left the area.
She said: "I don't think it criminal there would have been a clue along the way. If you were looking at a criminal act it is usually from an opportunist.
"Where women are attacked by a stranger and sexually assaulted and or sadly murdered it's spontaneous. It's rare they would camp out the area, check the route, the CCTV and do it at all around 9am.
"This is when you are weighing up the pros and cons of third-party involvement. However, it's good that it is highlighted and that police continue to explore every opportunity."
Ms Mackay previously told The Mirror that, based on her experience from working along the Somerset coast, people aren't always immediately found in the water - especially if they were wearing heavy clothes that would weigh them down.
Nicola was last seen wearing a long black gilet jacket with a hood, black jeans and olive-green ankle wellies.
Ms Mackay said: "Generally wearing winter clothes makes it more difficult to get out it will weigh you down. The cold water shock alone will knock you sideways even for an experienced swimmer. That cold water shock very quickly disorientates you and with winter clothes it's heavy and panic will set in. And once you start losing control it can be quite difficult to regain it."
She added: "I don't think it is unusual no one saw her in the river because there is a lot of debris, logs and rubbish. People don't expect to see something they can't identify. It's also how the body operates in the water, it sinks until decomposition sets in and because it's so cold it may be a bit longer."
It comes after Nicola's partner Paul Ansell said he didn't believe Nicola was in the river and feared someone else was involved.
Speaking to Dan Walker on Channel 5, he said: "Extensive searching, as you’re probably aware, has gone on in that river.
"The fact that the divers and underwater rescue team and all that were in that river on the day, and thankfully found absolutely nothing, in the part where you would have to presume is her last known location.
"Personally, I am 100 per cent convinced it’s not the river, that’s my opinion."
He also said: "People don't just vanish into thin air. It's absolutely impossible. So something has happened. Whatever has happened, in my eyes, has to be somebody who knows the local area. You would only know that area, it's a local area."
He added: "You see the same faces every single day, and on the very odd occasion when you see somebody that you know, you don't know. They stand out like a sore thumb."
Anyone with information which could assist the investigation should call Lancashire Police on 101 quoting log 0565 of January 30th. For immediate sightings please call 999.
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