HOUSTON — Decided underdogs, the Phillies can win the World Series. The way they can do it is by getting length from starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, hitting home runs with runners on and trusting José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez to get the highest-leverage outs, which won’t always be in the ninth.
But here’s their problem: that is the one path on paper in which they can win four times. The Astros are the much deeper team, with a more diverse offense and, most critically, a much deeper pitching staff. Across a seven-game series Houston has more ways to win four times.
“The Phillies have one path to victory,” says one rival manager. “The Astros have about four or five. Dusty [Baker] has a lot more options in high leverage spots.”
Matt Slocum/AP
Philadelphia’s path to win is the same as the one the Nationals took to upset Houston in 2019. Washington hit key home runs, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg provided length and manager Dave Martinez deployed starter Patrick Corbin as a reliever to fortify his bullpen. We’ve already seen Phillies manager Rob Thomson use starter Ranger Suárez to close the NLCS.
Alvarado will pitch to Yordan Alvarez in every meaningful at bat in the back end of a game, just as he did to Juan Soto in the NLCS. But Thomson must be careful about overworking and overexposing Alvarado and Domínguez in a long series, as happened to Andrew Miller in 2016, Brandon Morrow in ’17, Will Harris in ’19 and Nick Anderson in ’20. Give good hitters multiple looks at good relievers and you’re asking for trouble. That’s why innings from Nola and Wheeler are critical, and the way they are throwing, they can do it.
Baker, the Astros manager, doesn’t have to worry about exposure. He is loaded with one of the deepest pitching staffs ever brought into the World Series. The Houston starters and relievers are that good. He has far more choices in high leverage spots.
Taking out the Astros with multi-hit rallies is asking too much. Philadelphia has the home run power to land the necessary haymakers. And watching the Phillies in the postseason, you can see how they let it fly on first pitches and when they have count leverage, trying to ambush something to play longball. With two strikes, they spread out in the box to fight through the endgame of at bats. It’s a smart approach directed by hitting coach Kevin Long, one of the best in the business.
The Astros are the better, deeper team that should win—but the same was true in 2019. Here is the rest of the critical info about how this World Series will play out:
Handling Harper
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Padres manager Bob Melvin let the NLCS get away by not putting his best arms on Bryce Harper in key spots. First he used a rusty, fastball-pumping Sean Manaea on Harper in Game 4 and then a righty, fastball-pumping Robert Suárez on Harper in Game 5. Each time Harper drilled a fastball for the game-breaking hit—while Josh Hader did not pitch in any of the three games in Philadelphia.
Baker won’t make the same mistake.
The first thing you must realize is that Harper is so hot right now you are foolish if you think you are beating him with fastballs. Four of his five postseason home runs have come on fastballs. Check this out and you tell me if you would challenge him with heaters:
Harper 2022 Postseason by Pitch Type
The most important piece on the chessboard
Ok, the Astros don’t have a Hader to neutralize Harper. They don’t even have a lefty reliever.
No problem. They have Bryan Abreu.
Abreu is a right-handed reliever who is a master of two breaking balls: slider and curve. Lefties can’t hit them. When you play the Phillies, you don’t defend batting average, you defend slug. Keep the ball in the ballpark. Their singles won’t beat you. Only Patrick Sandoval of the Angels held lefties to a lower slugging percentage than Abreu (.208).
Get this: Abreu has thrown 499 breaking pitches to left-handed hitters in his career and never allowed a home run.
Bryce Harper, meet Bryan Abreu.
Baker has many pawns on the board, too
Kevin M. Cox/AP
Here’s where depth comes into play. Whereas Thomson may have to deploy Alvarado on Alvarez as early as the fifth or sixth inning every chance he gets, Baker can pick his spots with Abreu.
Abreu is far from his only weapon to depress left-handed slug (we’re looking at you, too, Kyle Schwarber). After Abreu, his best pitchers at limiting left-handed slug are Justin Verlander (.228, sixth best in MLB), Framber Valdez (.231), Ryne Stanek (.237), Rafael Montero (.243), Lance McCullers Jr. (.253), Ryan Pressly (.278) and Hector Neris (.286). They’re all elite at that task, never mind that they are righthanded.
Baker’s Dozen doesn’t have to challenge Harper with fastballs. Against Harper he can lean on elite breaking pitches (Abreu, Verlander, Valdez, Pressly, McCullers) and off-speed (Stanek, Montero and Neris).
Baker can give the best Phillies hitters multiple looks. Thomson will have to use the same pitchers against the key Houston hitters. That’s a big edge for the Astros.
Justin Verlander should pitch Game 2
Yes, he is your de facto ace. But I’d rather have him on an extra day of rest for Game 6 than on four days in Game 5, which is the when he’s lined up to pitch for the second time after going in Game 1.
One of the reasons why Houston’s pitching is so good this late in the year is that it used a six-man rotation for much of the season. (Philadelphia’s work-around was to stash Wheeler on the IL for a few weeks.) Coming off Tommy John surgery, Verlander thrived in that environment. He has made only five of his 30 starts on four days of rest, none since Aug. 28.
He has pitched great on the fifth day (0.90 ERA). He certainly can bounce back for Game 5, but given the chance to keep him on his extra-day schedule I would do it.
What will the Phillies see from Verlander?
Eric Gay/AP
Verlander is a far different pitcher than when he won his first two Cy Young Awards. Here’s what is in store for the Phillies (with some advice).
1. He is throwing with the highest release point of his career—the highest of any starter in baseball. (Simulate that odd release point in B.P. There’s nothing like it.)
2. He is allowing a .144 average when his fastball is at least three feet off the ground, .247 when it’s below it. (Make him get the ball down.)
3. He’s throwing 54% breaking pitches in the postseason, up from a career-high 48% in the regular season. (Break out the curveball machine in the indoor cage).
4. He has the fourth lowest batting average against the third time around the lineup. (He’s not going anywhere.)
5. He averages 94.8 mph with nobody on base but 96 with runners in scoring position. (Prepare for the higher gear in big spots.)
Hope for a Phillies fan
The Astros are the third team in the wild-card era to reach the World Series undefeated in postseason play. The other undefeated teams got smoked in Game 1 after a bundle of days off and lost the series.
The 2007 Rockies (7–0) lost Game 1, 13–1, to the Red Sox after eight days off and were swept. The 2014 Royals (8–0) lost Game 1, 7–1, to the Giants after five days off and got Bumgarnered in seven.
The Astros (7–0) enter Game 1 with four days off. While they do have home-field advantage, that means little to them. The franchise is 3–9 in the World Series at home, including 0–4 in Game 1.
Spin City
That’s what those City Connect Astros jerseys should say across the chest rather than Space City.
Breaking pitch use in the postseason always goes up by a few percentage points. The Astros are taking spin to an unprecedented level.
Twelfth in regular season with breaking pitch use at 32.2%, the Astros have kicked it up to 45.2%. That is the highest rate of postseason breaking pitches in recorded history (15 years, minimum of three postseason games).
Phillies, you are warned: you’re going to have to hit breaking pitches to win the series.
Old school managers
Seth Wenig/AP
Baker, 73, is the oldest manager in World Series history. He has won a World Series as a player with the Dodgers, was on deck when Henry Aaron hit home run 715, with Glenn Burke was part of the first high five, won the first NLCS MVP and was on hand for the 1989 World Series earthquake, the single-season home run record, the largest blown lead in a potential World Series clincher, the Bartman Game and the only game in history in which four consecutive batters reached base in each of the only four ways to get on base without putting the ball in play—in a potential postseason clincher, no less. Whew.
What he has not seen after 3,975 games managing is his team win the World Series. Postseason included, nobody has tried longer.
VERDUCCI: Dusty Baker’s Time Is Now
Thomson, 59, has been in pro ball since he was a 32nd round pick of the Tigers in 1985, but this is his first major league managing gig—and one he didn’t get until the Yankees passed him up for Aaron Boone and the Phillies fired Joe Girardi this year. He could join Bob Lemon (1978 Yankees) and Jack McKeon (2003 Marlins) as the only managers to take over a club midway through a season and win the World Series.
2017 has nothing to do with this series, but...
The Astros cheated in 2017. It was awful. We get it. Their pitchers also limited the Yankees to one run in the final two games of the ’17 ALCS and they beat the Dodgers 5–1 at Dodger Stadium in Game 7 to win the World Series. Three runs allowed in three elimination games.
Twenty one of the 26 players on Houston’s World Series roster were not on the team in 2017. So much for “redemption.” Of the five players who were there, two of them were pitchers, Verlander and McCullers, who did not take part in the scheme. So now you’re down to three players who have connections to ‘17: Alex Bregman, who was a rookie in 2017 (no rookie is going to shut down an operation by telling veteran Carlos Beltran or bench coach Alex Cora, “This ain’t cool.”), Jose Altuve, who is one of a small subset of hitters who don’t want signs to know what’s coming; and Yuli Gurriel.
The Astros don’t need a World Series win to “validate” anything to fans. They need one because this is the one in front of them now. They need to win one for Baker, and for the many players on the roster who don’t have a ring.
But maybe, just maybe, the remaining five from 2017 feel the way Joe Musgrove does. Musgrove won a ring with those ’17 Astros. He wants another one with the Padres.
“I still don’t feel great about wearing that ring around or telling people that I was a World Series champion on that team,” he said when this postseason began. “I want one that feels earned and that was a true championship. So that’s the goal.”
