In Groundhog Day news, scientists have found a new variant of coronavirus that is causing concern.
The variant, which has so far been identified in South Africa, Hong Kong and Botswana, is thought to be the most transmissible version yet, and there are concerns that vaccines may not be as effective as one would hope in blocking it - though more research must be done to clarify this.
The UK and other countries have red-listed affected countries to stop people travelling with an invisible extra passenger and spreading it around, and scientists are rushing to gather evidence about the risk it poses.
As they do so, here’s everything we know about Covid’s unwanted reboot.
What is the new variant?
The new variant, which should be named ‘the for f**ks sake not this again variant’ has instead been less catchily named B.1.1.529. Described as the worst scientists have seen in the pandemic, it has 32 unusual mutations in the spike protein - the part of the virus vaccines use to block it - meaning it could be more transmisible.
Mutations in the spike protein can affect the virus’s ability to infect cells and spread, but also make it harder for immune cells to attack the pathogen and the number of mutations is about double the number associated with the Delta variant.
Where has it been found?
There have been around 50 confirmed cases of the new strain in South Africa, Hong Kong and Botswana. Scientists believe that as many as 90 per cent of new cases in Gauteng, one of the provinces in South Africa where the strain was first found, could be B.1.1.529.
No cases have so far been reported in the UK.
How fast is it spreading?
Dr Susan Hopkins,chief medical adviser to the UK Health and Security Agency, said the R rate - which measures how fast the virus spreads - in Gauteng is now 2 – a level of transmission not recorded since the beginning of the pandemic. For an R of anything above 1, an epidemic will grow exponentially.
What are expert saying?
As ever, attempts to ‘follow the science’ are being compounded by scientists having mixed opinions. Speaking to Sky News, Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London, described the mutations as “really awful” but said cases were currently “super low”.
Francois Balloux, professor of computational systems biology at University College London, said it should be closely monitored but “there is no reason to get overly concerned, unless it starts going up in frequency in the near future”.
Speaking to The Telegraph, Dr Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Bern, said: “We cannot perfectly predict virus behaviour from mutations.
“Even lab work doesn’t perfectly mirror what happens in complex, whole-body real-life. Other, alarming variants have failed to spread very far in the past. We need more data.”
While Professor Danny Altmann, an immunologist at Imperial College, London, added: “We have all become pandemic fatigued, yet if this was a report of a terrorist threat, we would now be raising the threat level from amber to red.”
To The Mirror, Professor Ewan Birney, deputy director general of EMBL and director of EMBL’s European Bioinformatics Institute (EMBL-EBI), said: “Early evidence from genomic surveillance in South Africa suggests that B.1.1.529 is a serious cause for concern. The South African surveillance and epidemiology groups should be commended for their timely data collection, analysis and transparency.”
Undoubtedly, other scientists will have more to add in the coming days and weeks.
What is the UK government doing to control the variant?
Perhaps having learnt from it’s less than hasty rush to curb travel from India when the Delta variant first found there caused concern, the UK government has placed South Africa under red list travel restrictions, effective from midday on Friday.
COVID-19 UPDATE:@UKHSA is investigating a new variant. More data is needed but we're taking precautions now.
— Sajid Javid (@sajidjavid) November 25, 2021
From noon tomorrow six African countries will be added to the red list, flights will be temporarily banned, and UK travellers must quarantine.
The ban will also cover flights from Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe. Scotland confirmed all arrivals from the countries must self-isolate and take two PCR tests from midday on Friday, while anyone arriving after 4am on Saturday will need to stay at a managed quarantine hotel.
The red list had previously been scrapped earlier this month, with final countries being taken off the list.
Recent arrivals from southern Africa will also be tracked down and offered tests in an effort to avoid the introduction of the new strain.
Speaking to the BBC, transport secretary Grant Shapps said the government was taking “a safety-first approach”.
“We can’t take risks when we see a variant that could well defeat the vaccine.
“We need just a bit of time to check that out with the scientists”.
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps tells #BBCBreakfast "we can't take risks" over a new Coronavirus variant.
— BBC Breakfast (@BBCBreakfast) November 26, 2021
Flights from 6 southern African countries have been temporarily suspended.https://t.co/0oPcOfyGky pic.twitter.com/1iTT5k30Tv
Between 500 and 700 people typically travel to the UK from South Africa each day.
What are other countries doing?
Israel also announced it will ban its citizens from travelling to the same six countries and has also barred travellers from Mozambique, while the European Commission has announced plans to stop flights from the region.
What happens next?
The World Health Organisation (WHO) is meeting today to assess the variant.
If it is upgraded to a variant of concern, it will likely be referred to as Nu, the next available letter in the Greek Alphabet. However, it could also be classed as a less serious variant of interest and it could take weeks to generate all the information needed to properly assess it, including the extent to which it could bypass vaccines.
Some variants that were identified in the past caused initial concern but then were outflanked by others and disappeared, so whether Nu causes the world to grind to a halt once more is a matter of time to decide.
