The Russell Wilson era isn’t officially over in Denver. But after being benched for Jarrett Stidham with two weeks left in the 2023 season in a move that’s equal parts cost conscious and bold statement, it’s not a stretch to suggest things are winding down to a conclusion. Less than two years after the Broncos made a massive splash by trading for, then extending, the perennial Pro Bowler, Denver is primed to put him in its rear view.
Wilson was supposed to be the second coming of Peyton Manning. The former Indianapolis Colt came to a franchise stuck in purgatory and led it to immediate success, culminating in a world title. Wilson wasn’t cut from the same cloth and was considerably more expensive to acquire from Seattle, but he had been an annual playoff participant with his own Super Bowl history. He was supposed to be the rocket boost that took a team in a six-year playoff drought back to green pastures.
Instead, the 2022 Broncos were a disaster amidst Wilson’s struggles. Things were better in 2023, but while a 1-5 start gave way to an unlikely playoff push, three losses in the team’s last four games — the last coming against a bad New England Patriots team at home as a seven point favorite — sealed Wilson’s fate this winter and likely beyond.
Benching Wilson ensures he won’t get injured on the field, triggering what would have been a $37 million guarantee for 2025. He’s currently in the second year of a $245 million extension signed after arriving in Colorado. If he’s on the roster (or unable to pass a physical) on the fifth day of the league year next March, that $37 million is locked in. By benching him now, the Broncos are signaling their willingness to eat $85 million in dead salary cap space by releasing him next spring.
Without any future starts guaranteed, it feels like time to properly addess exactly what Denver paid to acquire Wilson and what the franchise got in return. I don’t want to spoil the ending, but it’s not good.
*in terms of efficiency, Wilson’s 0.035 adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play ranks 27th out of 48 starting quarterbacks since 2022.
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What the Broncos gave the Seahawks for the opportunity to eat $85 million in dead money in 2024
Here’s the full breakdown of the Russell Wilson trade:
Seattle sent:
- QB Russell Wilson
- a 2022 fourth round pick (DE Eyioma Uwazurike, who has played eight games in the NFL to date and has 17 tackles with zero sacks)
Denver sent:
- TE Noah Fant
- QB Drew Lock
- DL Shelby Harris
- 2022 1st round pick (9th overall, OT Charles Cross)
- 2022 2nd round pick (40th overall, EDGE Boye Mafe)
- 2022 5th round pick (145th overall subsequently traded for picks that became LB Tyreke Smith and WR Dareke Young, neither of whom have done much in the NFL)
- 2023 1st round pick (5th overall, CB Devon Witherspoon)
- 2023 2nd round pick (37th overall, EDGE Derick Hall)
Cross and Witherspoon look like franchise cornerstones. Mafe leads the Seahawks with nine sacks and 15 quarterback hits this season. Hall has only played 25 percent of the team’s snaps in 2023.
To complete the deal, the Broncos signed Wilson to a five-year, $245 million extension with $161 million guaranteed. At this stage, it feels mean to point this out.
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What the Broncos got: 11 wins, zero playoff berths (pending), 42 touchdown passes, three head coaches and zero top 15 offenses
Wilson has played 30 games as a Bronco. Denver is 11-19 in those games — a .367 winning percentage worse than the 39-58 (.402) record the team compiled in the post-Manning era that led to 2022’s ill-fated trade. The quarterback position hasn’t been the only problem in that stretch, especially given the way the Broncos’ defense fell off in 2023 despite Wilson’s improvement. Even so, there’s nothing here to suggest the club was paying a market rate for elite production.
Here’s how Wilson ranked among qualified NFL starting quarterbacks in nearly two full seasons as a Denver Bronco:
- 42 touchdowns: tied for 12th most in the NFL but third-most in the AFC West and one behind former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr
- 19 interceptions: tied for ninth most
- a 90.9 passer rating: 20th best and behind Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett
- 219.8 passing yards per game: 21st best
- 100 sacks taken: most in the NFL, a league where Justin Fields is a starting quarterback
- 0.035 adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play: 27th best and sandwiched between Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke among starters
- 1.7 completion percentage over expected (CPOE): 11th best
Squint hard enough and you might be able to convince yourself Wilson is average or maybe even a little better than that. His numbers were better in the second half of games! He played encouraging football in 2023 despite letdowns! He beat Patrick Mahomes this year (please ignore the 3-7 record against the AFC West overall)!
But that’s not something the Broncos may be willing to pay $37 million for 18 months down the line. Denver’s decision to bench Wilson suggests this era is ending and there’s no hope for a revival. The team will likely have to suffer through another brutal season while that lost salary slowly slides off the books, meaning Wilson’s arrival extended a suffering franchise’s string of misery.
Rather than be a panacea, Wilson was merely bacteria to the festering wound that is the Denver Broncos. But at least he’ll be handsomely paid even before signing a contract with whatever team offers him a modest deal in hopes of reviving his career.
